Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 10th February 2013>

[woldsowl]

Still a full cover here this morning and the temp has only just now crept above 1c. Temp rose above 0 soon after midnight so the freezing rain would have hung on for a while after I went to bed. Foggy now.

[Love Snow]

Been a great winter for snow so far this year

[4wd]

5.6C and sunny here, the road has been cleared of drifts with a JCB just now.

The fields have very little snow on them, it all blew into the sides.

[woldsowl]

Temp crept up to 2.4, but the fog is clearing and the sun coming out, so a rapid thaw coming.

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z (like previous runs) suggests that we will go to at least day 9 with not a drop of rain.

Looks lovely and sunny and though.

[PMPhotography]

A cracking day here now after the low cloud and fog cleared. Temp now 7.9C. There's still a few patches of snow about from yesterday.

It's looking increasingly likely winter isn't done with us yet too. Most models going for an Easterly mid to late next week. Worth keeping an eye on.

Just had an Amber alert from Aurora watch sent to my inbox. Will be worth checking the sky tonight if it stays clear!

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

[woldsowl]

A cracking day here now after the low cloud and fog cleared. Temp now 7.9C. There's still a few patches of snow about from yesterday.

It's looking increasingly likely winter isn't done with us yet too. Most models going for an Easterly mid to late next week. Worth keeping an eye on.

Just had an Amber alert from Aurora watch sent to my inbox. Will be worth checking the sky tonight if it stays clear!

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

75% cover still on the lawn and has been icing up and going to have to clear some off my windscreen in the morning as well.

There was an amber warning last week as well (Friday?), didn't see anything though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Got up to about 3cm yesterday, but there was just 30-40% cover on the grass at 9am this morning, and it thawed completely by 10am and the temperature crept to a max of 8.5C. Plenty of sunshine about today.

[Adam lufc]

Ecm massive downgrade late on. NO Greenland heights!!

[Bradowl]

After todays models showing a return to wintry conditions by middle of next week I'm surprised Paul Hudson didn't mention this on tonights look north.

His 5 day outlook showed winds from the east and max temp of 6'c next tuesday but he kept going on about how nice weather is going to be over next few days.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there's quite a significant chance of us getting a dry cloudy south-easterly out of this- for widespread snowfall we either need a greater imput of cold air from the E and NE promoting snow showers over the North Sea, or fronts pushing against the cold block.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Bradowl]

I think there's quite a significant chance of us getting a dry cloudy south-easterly out of this- for widespread snowfall we either need a greater imput of cold air from the E and NE promoting snow showers over the North Sea, or fronts pushing against the cold block.

I agree, I reckon the latter will eventually happen at a later stage.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Ecm massive downgrade late on. NO Greenland heights!!

LOL, I wouldn't worry too much about charts 9/10 days away. ECM still a thing of beauty for most of the run. The detail will change from run to run, especially the last few frames of the run. The overall trend of below average temperatures with easterly winds remains on both the ECM and UKMO. Chin up.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Would like some of this good times

[Winter Cold]

So what are your thoughts on the duration of the coming cold spell guys? From reading the model thread it sounds like some people are worried it will just be a 'cold snap' and be over in a few days but others are saying it could end up being something memorable!

Difficult deciding who to beleive. Does it all depend on retrogression to Greenland to extend the longevity?

Could we be looking at a 2 weeks spell or so like we had in January? Im hoping it goes on for a long time

[summer blizzard]

So what are your thoughts on the duration of the coming cold spell guys? From reading the model thread it sounds like some people are worried it will just be a 'cold snap' and be over in a few days but others are saying it could end up being something memorable!

Difficult deciding who to beleive. Does it all depend on retrogression to Greenland to extend the longevity?

Could we be looking at a 2 weeks spell or so like we had in January? Im hoping it goes on for a long time

Frankly it looks to me like pressure will too high and uppers not significantly low so here inland i would expect a chilly spell but nothing more (GFS would suggest a more typical sunny, dry high with frost at night and 5-10C by day).

Of more interest is probably the northerly which may come after.

Frankly i'm more interested in the GFS, it suggest at least 9 days of no precipitation.

[Aaron]

Are you dry ramping SB?!

A good drying-out period will do wonders, the ground is absolutely sodden, so much mud, it makes for very unpleasant walks.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

Are you dry ramping SB?!

A good drying-out period will do wonders, the ground is absolutely sodden, so much mud, it makes for very unpleasant walks.

I believe i am, GFS now takes us to 10 days.

Indeed, it will be amazing to see just how quickly we can go from soaked fields to hard, cracked ones (probably won't with frost).

Meanwhile its 8C and sunny here, quite nice.

[Bradowl]

Still looking good for our easterly next week.

Should start seeing Snow flurries from about Wednesday onwards.

[Winter Cold]

Yes the models are very pleasing on the eye arent they

lets hope we are indeed going to get our most severe spell of winter weather starting from Wednesday!

[Adam lufc]

What is the point really in model discussions. All we get is our hopes up and you can't not 'get excited' by them just to always have downgrades and backtracks. For once I and I bet many were hoping the gfs was onto a northward cold snowy trend only to now back off again. An evening of disapointnent coming. Again

[Harsh Climate]

What is the point really in model discussions. All we get is our hopes up and you can't not 'get excited' by them just to always have downgrades and backtracks. For once I and I bet many were hoping the gfs was onto a northward cold snowy trend only to now back off again. An evening of disapointnent coming. Again

Next week was never going to offer deep snow so no need to be dissapointed, it's whether or not that blocking high can retrogress north west allowing much colder air in from the north/north east that is the question early indications say more than unlikely though.

EDIT: Not another moaning post adam?????? You really are one miserable *sausage* : D

Edited February 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[NorthYorksWeather]

Next week was never going to offer deep snow so no need to be dissapointed, it's whether or not that blocking high can retrogress north west allowing much colder air in from the north/north east that is the question early indications say more than unlikely though.

EDIT: Not another moaning post adam?????? You really are one miserable *sausage* : D

IF anything like the 00z or 06z came off I think many eastern areas would receive decent amounts. Obviously the chances further inland lesser but I feel that is a very IMBY post. Im worried that the 12z are the start of a downgrading trend and that eventually even Southern areas will miss out aswell. Of course I hope Im wrong but the models have really tempted us this winter so far with some fantastic sypnotics only to later water them down somewhat.

[Harsh Climate]

IF anything like the 00z or 06z came off I think many eastern areas would receive decent amounts. Obviously the chances further inland lesser but I feel that is a very IMBY post. Im worried that the 12z are the start of a downgrading trend and that eventually even Southern areas will miss out aswell. Of course I hope Im wrong but the models have really tempted us this winter so far with some fantastic sypnotics only to later water them down somewhat.

Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Why do people put words in your mouth lol?

No its not an IMBY post as I didn't mention west yorkshire, I was reffering to yorkshire on a whole. Even toward the coast with uppers of -8 in a mainly slack flow, convection wouldn't be that great and in between showers towards the coast (were most of the precipitation would be falling anyway) it would melt somewhat due to the stregth of the sun, onshore breeze and many other factors.

Please don't tar someone with the IMBY brush when there is no evidence as it's a little annoying

[Barry12]

This winter hasn't been to bad, but the models have been so annoying!

Looks like a cold and dry week followed by Westerlys into Spring.