Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Buzzit]

That is good progress It's sending that shortwave to us rather than south.

Could be a couple more runs till its fully there but good progress.

It has a proper Scandanavian high (for once)

[shaky]

Its not particularly an upgrade, just the output has moved forward 12 hrs so we see the middle frame and it is the perfect transition as to where the low would be going

Yeh true!!its all happening pretty quickly though!!just yesterday it was snowing 😄!!ite clear to me that the gfs has moved towards the euros,i think by tomorrow the movement will have been complete!!

[Nick B]

Foundations are set!Should we get ready for the undercut?

If you mean undercut from the east!

That LP in the Atlantic is going nowhere, maybe towards the Azores... that'll do nicely.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Nick B

[legritter]

never done this before but ,GFS IS CATCHING ON ,its been on the phone to uncle ECM and grand dad uk met .

[Panayiotis]

If you mean undercut from the east!

That LP in the Atlantic is going nowhere.

No the low in the Atlantic will undercut later on say around 168hrs.... Edited February 14, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

The low in the Atlantic against the high to the east who will win?

Edited February 14, 2013 by Gavin.

[Nick B]

Yes the shortwave from the east but the low in the Atlantic will undercut later on say around 168hrs....

Agreed, by then could just be adding to the Euro LP area further south, except of course by that timeframe GFS will revert to type and send everything NE.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Nick B

[-uksnow-]

The low in the Atlantic against the high to the east who will win?

Im afraid its just you..

[Shunter]

GFS continues to struggle badly.

whoever funds and devlops this model must be surely thinking scrap it or upgrade it??

GFS is US centric, are they really going to give a hoot over the accuracy of their MRF in North West Europe?

[shaky]

The low in the Atlantic against the high to the east who will win?

Its clear to me gavin!!the scandi high is gona win!!thats a major backtrack from the 06z!!

[-uksnow-]

120 hr UKMO is DREAMY

[PB22]

12z UKMO T+120 is quite a chart for the southeast especially as the cold drifts west:

Opportunity for the high to ridge towards Greenland by T+150 on the GFS:

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The low in the Atlantic against the high to the east who will win?

It's either just inter run variation or hope casting.

[Chess01]

Gfs finnaly gets the message

[Panayiotis]

For some reason I love this chart- yes it doesnt show snow and cold for UK but look over Europe and Africa, we have -5C uppers and then to the south we have +5C uppers that temperature gradient = strong jet!

Edited February 14, 2013 by Panayiotis

[-uksnow-]

Sorry for posting all the charts but, 144..

UKMO consistancy is great. Where is SM?!

Chilly willlly

[Tamara]

UKMO t144 - nice long fetch easterly . Being slightly nitpicky if the High was just a little further north it would be a total catch

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17

[Jason M]

12z UKMO T+120 is quite a chart for the southeast especially as the cold drifts west:

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?14-17

Opportunity for the high to ridge towards Greenland by T+150 on the GFS:

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-150.png?12

We always get charts like this in FI....Oh wait... Its actually at day 5!!!!

[Snowman.]

In this situation its a win win for me.

I like cold and snow as much anyone other cold fans but when I'm giving the opportunity of a early start to spring and some decent sunshine with temps above normal I would take that over the Atlantic giving us grief.

I would also take the v cold and v snowy end aswell for the last Winter bite that would leave some real teeth marks.

So all in all they both look nice

[-uksnow-]

UKMO t144 - nice long fetch easterly . Being slightly nitpicky if the High was just a little further north it would be a total catch

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?14-17

Hmmm you nitpick!

Looking at the 00z 144 and 12z 144 though the transition is very smooth, and energy is now being sent up into greenland with the next low in the atlantic starting to tilt to send its energy under the block... Personally, im not complaining at the moment!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Backtrack I would say is nearly complete

It still takes the short wave south but its really coming round to the idea now , a great evening .

[Man With Beard]

Sorry for posting all the charts but, 144..

UKMO consistancy is great. Where is SM?!

Chilly willlly

A hint of the high sinking over Scandi by T144, but also a hint of heights rising towards Greenland - could the whole HP be sucked up to the North West allowing a northerly blast up the line? Which would result in a prolonged cold spell.

[SMU]

Yep the scores on the doors this afternoon-

GFS 5/10- getting better... Its gone from +10c across england next thurs to +4c. blut still no real cold uppers in below 144.

UKMO 7.5/10- excellent- but I leave room for improvement- that being the second wave that sharpens up the flow to easterly at 168. ( note the wave developing over Germany & the fact the atlantic wants to push towards France will stretch the flow out-

For the SE of England 144 UKMO is probably sub 2c maxima.

UKMO max at 72 now modified to 5c, dewpoints close to feezing again would make it feel quite cold in the SE flow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF?14-16

S

[Tim Bland]

I expect the GFS 12z will pick up the correct signal. We have already seen the ensembles starting to pick up on it and expect this to continue with the 06z suite. Looking forward to that " step change" from meto today or tommorow

GFS is now waking up on que!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=228&code=0&mode=0

[Panayiotis]

Now thats what I call a retrogression, all eye candy though post this timeframe!

I really do think that this cold pattern will turn out to be one to remember if the ECM and UKMO verify (which they probably will) and with the PV moving to NW Europe/Siberia it will be holding some serious cold uppers, if we get the retrogression to Greenland those uppers will come our way, thats the theory but im more than interested in what is shown by the models up to 144hrs!

Edited February 14, 2013 by Panayiotis