Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Liam J]

The ECM is a good run, tho there are no heights building to the nw and this was being modelled previously or am I mistaken?

Correct, there is no Greenland High on this run so in that respect it's not as good as previous outputs but far from a disaster.

[Climate Man]

ECM rock steady counting the evolution down like an atomic clock. Very heartening run for cold weather fans, if anything the eye opening trend is the ongoing potential displayed after the initial easterly bites..

Not really. Holds in terms of European pattern but a huge change in heights to the NW which is detrimental. The previous run showed a near perfect retrogression and this has now gone

[snowking]

The ECM is a good run, tho there are no heights building to the nw and this was being modelled previously or am I mistaken?

Correct, days 11-15 currently. You have to remember this is one run of a 51 run ensemble suite - but yes the longer term signal has been to progress the bulk of the heights towards Greenland....of course we've seen a few runs through the winter suggesting this before now!

As usual ill do a round up of the 12z ensemble mean heights when I get back from work

SK

[Captain Shortwave]

Good run again by ECM, the later stages are different due to modelling the polar vortex differently and dropping a lobe into Greenland and effectively using it as a giant pendulum to try and get rid of the high over Scandinavia. Thing can and will change though by that time. Still looking good though

[Mair Snaw]

Correct, there is no Greenland High on this run so in that respect it's not as good as previous outputs but far from a disaster.

As i said earlier the ecm was due a wobble and if thats it then bloody fantastic stuff. ECM leading the way again.

[nick sussex]

Well at least the GFS has moved towards the Euros but in terms of detail hard to pin down. Will a convective easterly finally verify after so many misses during the winter?

On the face of it yes but I'd wait till T96hrs given the propensity for the models to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory!

Edited February 14, 2013 by nick sussex

[Downpour]

ONE WORD RE ECM :

BANK !

Winter to go out with a bang!

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm is not very good to be honest the heights to our east is sinking and the uppers are not as cold possibly as ian brown suggest more likely cold block over us but then this has been suggested for a few days now.

[lorenzo]

Not really. Holds in terms of European pattern but a huge change in heights to the NW which is detrimental. The previous run showed a near perfect retrogression and this has now gone

I agree GH now gone, perhaps wrote too soon, was concentrating on the upper temps eyes drawn too far East on the big patch of purple. ECM still working brilliantly with the tracking in though cannot fault it for dialling this one in.

[cold snap]

Great run from ECM but without sufficient blocking out off Greenland again this may not be the end result ,the Atlantic could just crop up at anytime .

Maybe that's why Exeter not going with outcome to the extent off what ECM is showing because off the lack off heights to are north west

Edited February 14, 2013 by cold snap

[Panayiotis]

ecm is not very good to be honest the heights to our east is sinking and the uppers are not as cold possibly as ian brown suggest more likely cold block over us but then this has been suggested for a few days now.

Any charts to prove what you are saying ? It gives me/us an idea of what you are trying to say. Edited February 14, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mair Snaw]

Well a

Well a ?? Nick has just passed out after seeing that ECM run.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

ecm is not very good to be honest the heights to our east is sinking and the uppers are not as cold possibly as ian brown suggest more likely cold block over us but then this has been suggested for a few days now.

Blimey not good?, seriously you cant have everything, next your be wanting diamonds falling from the sky.

[-uksnow-]

ecm is not very good to be honest the heights to our east is sinking and the uppers are not as cold possibly as ian brown suggest more likely cold block over us but then this has been suggested for a few days now.

WHAT!? Put your expectations in perspective please! ECM was another cracker, perhaps the later output post 144 hrs is not as good admittedly but that is just 1 run! ECM + UKMO up to then are fantastic, we are still talking 6 or 7 days away from those fantastic charts of the FI ECM so lets just get the initial pattern in place first that'll be something to marvel at

[Mair Snaw]

Blimey not good?, seriously you cant have everything, next your be wanting diamonds falling from the sky.

You know my wife then LOL.... sorry off topic but just had to.

[cold snap]

I think model roller coaster has a small point

Look it's a great run but it's like a paper house

NO Greenland block ,

[Mair Snaw]

I think model roller coaster has a small point

Look it's a great run but it's like a paper house

NO Greenland block ,

We have not had a greenland block all winter and so far many off us have seen ice days and a few good snow events, its in FI and we have done well enough this winter without one so no need to panic.

[nick sussex]

Well a ?? Nick has just passed out after seeing that ECM run.

Lol! My computer is a bit twitchy and I managed to post that! As for the ECM, its good but this mornings was better, so from the Savoy to an Ibis, I certainly don't want to be booked into a Premier Inn by tomorrow!

You don't want to see the block slipping se'wards as its an invitation to the Atlantic to crash the party. The UKMO IMO is far better at 144hrs with that deep low in Iberia. The ECM gets a stingy 7/10 from me, the UKMO 8/10, the GFS 6/10.

[chris55]

For those from the SW thread I posted an archive of the 78 Blizzard yesterday, then sneaked the ECM in afterwards for comparison. Tonights ECM continues the trend. 85cm of snow was dumped on Somerset on Feb 19th that year. (way to far out for anything serious but fun to dream, and we are not that far off either)

[Mair Snaw]

Lol! My computer is a bit twitchy and I managed to post that! As for the ECM, its good but this mornings was better, so from the Savoy to an Ibis, I certainly don't want to be booked into a Premier Inn by tomorrow!

You don't want to see the block slipping se'wards as its an invitation to the Atlantic to crash the party. The UKMO IMO is far better at 144hrs with that deep low in Iberia. The ECM gets a stingy 7/10 from me, the UKMO 8/10, the GFS 6/10.

Your computer is a bit twitchy? is it a GFS computer by any chance? Agree we dont want anything going se'wards apart from that low in the atlantic.

Edited February 14, 2013 by bigsnow

[Frosty.]

It's not often in a british winter when you can say an Easterly looks nailed on but it looks it now, and it would bring the coldest weather of the winter, colder than in January and a chance of severe cold (Jan 1987 type cold)

In the meantime, temps just above average until early next week and then trending colder and colder as winds back SEly and then more towards the East as time goes on, and then the north sea will become a snow making machine once the -10 T850's arrive in the east. No cold fan should complain about a chart that shows the polar front jet close to north africa.

[Liam J]

It's not that the ECM isn't good it's the fact that it's not as good as the previous runs which have been bullish with GH + PV sliding towards the UK. I was a little disheartened when the GH didn't materialise but as others have said this is only one run, perhaps the rest of the suite will support the GH evolution? Well I hope so

Be nice to see some sub -10c 850's over the UK as the -6c to -8c aren't that impressive given the time of year longer days etc. Just a minor gripe and anyway it's a bit premature to be delving into such details. Great set of 12z's, now all we need is the charts making into the T96 time frame.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Liam J

[shotski]

I think model roller coaster has a small point

Look it's a great run but it's like a paper house

NO Greenland block ,

No not yet (on this run anyway) JMA Long range ensembles that have been spot on the money so far this winter

would seem to suggest retrogression at some point.

[MR EXTREMES]

Great run from ECM but without sufficient blocking out off Greenland again this may no be the end result ,the Atlantic could just crop up at anytime .

Maybe that's why Exeter not going with outcome to the extent off what ECM is showing because off the lack off heights to are north west

indeed they seem confident that its not going to be as potent

[cold snap]

Nick as usual sums it up perfectly.

It we see more movement in the jet on the mornings runs it will be painful, bet you bottom dollar energy will get going over Canada

ECM tonight is fine just the foundation it was built on on the morning 0zs has vanished