Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[chris55]

Nice!!!!

[SMU]

Lololol

if only this was the 48 chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021312/ECM1-216.GIF?13-0

S

[Panayiotis]

Snow edging into the west from the low to the south, south UK mostly covered in -10C uppers...

Edited February 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[TEITS]

Belting run this is turning into.

Surprised at some of the 8 day comments. The trend is very similar between the UKMO/ECM the only difference is the UKMO is 24hrs ahead.

[That ECM]

If this output was showing at beginning of winter, I would be very enthused as I am sure there would be more opportunities further down the line. However we are not and as such we will need a direct hit this time around.

Will we get it? Personally, I think cool and predominately dry would be my guess with the pressure not quite getting far enough north. Cool dry and a reaquantance with the big yellow disc occasionally.

Now that prediction should sort out the 12zs and I await watching the pressure move north west dragging in a raging easterly and connective showers just to prove me wrong.!! There is logic in there somewhere, honest.!

The logic is working a treat. All I need to do is make a forecast and something different will happen.

[Man With Beard]

There is nothing strange happening at all. Have you missed all the posts both in this thread and

also in the strat thread of the SSW back in early January.

Yes, completely agree the SSW is probably a big factor in this - research on the effects of a SSW is still emerging I believe, but this winter may well add to the evidence. It's certainly played a part in creating this strange situation of seeing so many Atlantic dominated charts be replaced by northern blocking charts in the forecast models.

ECM 12Z takes a slightly different path but still results in a shortwave heading west from the Baltics in our direction.

[Ian Brown]

Good trends but to realise that T192 will require everything falling right in the days before then, if that was T96 I would give it 50/50 based on past easterly failures.

[NickyB]

But, buy the time it all becomes T+0, it'll be more like a wet fart...

Ahh but this isn't model discussion is it!

[Mucka]

Lololol

if only this was the 48 chart

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?13-0

S

Delicious. Stiff Easterly, retrogressing high, dead Atlantic and PV about to drop down the Eastern flank - killer charts

[chris55]

216 in Wetter format, notice the pretty close correlation to the 00z ens mean.

12z Det,

00z mean,

[Tamara]

Mmmmn - count from 9 days to my front doorstep please

Also look at what approaches like a sliding slippery snake from the south west

[snowblues]

I wonder if we will have our first area of-12 uppers on the uk

Nearly,dived SW

Edited February 13, 2013 by snowblues

[Timmytour]

I'm sensing a familar pattern here..... one which from start to finish has given my location at least some decent snowfall. it goes like this...

1. Steve Murr posts some relatively downbeat stuff

2. ECM starts showing something exciting in FI

3. Steve Murr gets back on the "maybe if" train

4. GFS stays well away from the ECM evolution

5. ECM stays consistent with its exciting evolution

6. Steve Murr's posts get upbeat again and include anticipations of what upcoming ECM charts in the middle of a run will show

7. GFS edges a little towards ECM

8 ECM backs a little away from the excitement and delays it but remains there or thereabouts

9. We get snow!

The whole process is a 10 day pattern.....I reckon we are on day 3 and have reached Step 6.

I'm anticipating snow arriving next thursday, Feb 21st ! :lol:

[The Eagle]

ECM is 24 hrs later than the UKMO in delivering cold it looks to me. Synoptically delayed but at the same time similar.

[Liam J]

Blimey, if you believe the ECM then I think the phrase ''you ain't seen nothing yet'' comes to mind regarding the weather we've seen so far this winter! Exactly the kind of charts you now want to see verify, just in case you weren't around for the likes of 47/62/63

Edited February 13, 2013 by Liam J

[SMU]

^{http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/}ecmwf^{/runs/2013021312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0}

^{Reload central.}

[chris55]

240, very cold, with the PV dropping down from the north east.

[chionomaniac]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that this winter has saved the best for last.

We have waited a long time to see the Canadian vortex leave residence and these strat charts show that to be the case.

http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

Supported by the GFS 100 hpa charts as well:

[Snowman.]

I just cant help myself and would like to see it go to 384 Hours!!!

[Jason M]

240, very cold, with the PV dropping down from the north east.

Now were talking. Much better than this insipid rubbish over the last few days. It may or may not happen but at least this time there may be some decent uppers involved. In an absolutely perfect world a couple of weeks earlier would have been better, but thats only a very minor gripe as should be nicely cold and the extra solar input now combined with a proper cold pool should ensure some showers popping up inland as well.

Jason

[MR EXTREMES]

T216

indeed id be very careful the chances of this coming into the realiable timeframe is very unlikely as we see with these charts and the most recent cold snap.

although agreed the ecm is absolutely stunning but im still on the fence atleast until a easterly is well and truely through the uk.

i still would not bet against heights over the uk.

[chris55]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that this winter has saved the best for last.

We have waited a long time to see the Canadian vortex leave residence and these strat charts show that to be the case.

http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

Supported by the GFS 100 hpa charts as well:

Yes C, the Canadian PV has certainly gone packing. The results are excellent as clearly shown by this eve's ECM.

[weather eater]

Very nice ECM, but I’ve seen a few of these on the ECM over the years and not a single one has come close to verifying. I’m far more interested in what the UKMO comes up with over the next couple of days, not ECM beasterlys.

[london-snow]

How the UKMO that only goes out to day 6 can be 8 days away is beyond me.

You know that i am not a troll. I am talking about the ECM and how the real cold hits at a range that we all know is well beyond reliable. Just look at the last few snaps that we have seen great looking charts in fi but when it comes into reliable it is toned down dramatically.

[Mucka]

Very nice ECM, but I’ve seen a few of these on the ECM over the years and not a single one has come close to verifying. I’m far more interested in what the UKMO comes up with over the next couple of days, not ECM beasterlys.

ECM says UKMO is his friend. Go and talk to GFS instead.