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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

at T120 predictable gfs

00z - South Westerly winds

06z - Southerly winds

12z - South Easterly Winds

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

At least some energy goes South East this time

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Still differences at T96hrs between the GFS and UKMO, the latter has a more favourable tilt to the troughing further west and also has cleared that shortwave energy eastwards into Scandi, this should allow high pressure to develop more quickly northwards.

The GFS reluctant to clear that energy but its still backtracking slowly!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

at T120 predictable gfs

00z - South Westerly winds

06z - Southerly winds

12z - South Easterly Winds

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-120.png?12

At least some energy goes South East this time

Sssssshhhhhh no-one will notice if it does it subtly

5C difference in air temperatures between 6z and 12z at 129 due to advection of lower dewpoints from the continent.

Edited by CreweCold
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Steve! The Icelandic wedge is back! UKMO great at 120hrs.

post-17320-0-05089300-1360772171_thumb.g

Edited by Panayiotis
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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

The UKMO 12z is being very consistent following this morning's run, the T+120 chart demonstrates this nicely:

UW120-21.GIF?13-17

As for GFS: doh.gif

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

As stated previously, the deeper and more active the trough that drops through Scandi the better, UKMO looks good in this respect as well.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?13-17

Great 120 UKMO- the position being further improved by the shortwave to the SW trying to undercut...

GFS still flailing around.

S

Pana that is a VERY rare chart- equal balance between west & east funneling the cold west

Yep a very nice chart to have at 120

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted

Having observed the models over several days i'm now ready to state that i am backing the GFS. Ensembles have moved into excellent agreement is my primary reason.

gefsens850London0.png

Rtavn1921.png

I feel you are backing the wrong stable here.

The op and control runs are higher resolution than the other gefs, the Gfs all winter has wanted to send energy over the block and for some reason struggles to send anything under, therefore the post result of this is warm South Westerlies. The gefs will all follow the op run with this as it cannot get part one correct.

The European models have a much better handle of the block to our north east, the ECM on its own called the last cold spell and previously so did the Ukmo the time before. Each time the Gfs has embarrassed itself being wrong at t72 still unable to send energy under.

If the Ukmo and the ECM agree on it going under at 120/144 then I am afraid the Gfs is going to come into line within the next 48 hours with it's pants down and tail in between its legs.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted (edited)

Still differences at T96hrs between the GFS and UKMO, the latter has a more favourable tilt to the troughing further west and also has cleared that shortwave energy eastwards into Scandi, this should allow high pressure to develop more quickly northwards.

The GFS reluctant to clear that energy but its still backtracking slowly!

Yes if you run the frames of the GFS 96-120 you can almost see that Atlantic trough bumping up against the block-has a look then splits the energy sending more north than the UKMO.

This is where the differences start.

Edited by phil nw.
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

I love how the low that is bringing the rain and snow today, swivels round the high over Scandi and comes back round from the east. Snowy and cold chart from the UKMO at 144hrs.

post-17320-0-32102700-1360772786_thumb.g

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No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted

Good looking UKMO @ T120. If we can get this kind of chart into the T96 time frame then maybe we can start to get a little bit excited.

post-115-0-15539400-1360772761_thumb.gif

The poor excuse for a world leading weather model the GFS is again having none of it.

Yes there will be the people that say the GFS maybe correct, and yes you are right but lets give it a 0.000000000000001% chance of being correct (is that being overly generous?)

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

I look forward to tonight's 120 hrs fax.smile.png

Yes we will see if the Met 'approve' of what their model shows! Edited by Panayiotis
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

I love how the low that is bringing the rain and snow today, swivels round the high over Scandi and comes back round from the east. Snowy and cold chart from the UKMO at 144hrs.

Funny thing is, though GFS fails with that pattern because of an Eastward bias it sets up a very similar pattern with the next low looking to drop down the Eastern flank of the ridge.

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Hi guys fascinating model watch but cant undertand why the gfs seems to always be so different to the other models is it because it runs four times daily or is it it that it just struggles with certain scenarios it dosent seem to reliable this winter

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted (edited)

I should also add for newer members that the slaughtering of the Gfs is not because it is showing what cold lovers do not want to see.

It is due to failing with this same scenario continually since the first week of January which has led to it having its tummy tickled by the no gaps cannon fodder model.

Edited by Ramp
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Hi guys fascinating model watch but cant undertand why the gfs seems to always be so different to the other models is it because it runs four times daily or is it it that it just struggles with certain scenarios it dosent seem to reliable this winter

It's been said many times, it struggles when splitting energy. It always wants to send more energy NE than the Euros where the jet splits so it is something that will be looked at in its next upgrade I imagine.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

I should also add for newer members that the slaughtering of the Gfs is not because it is showing what cold lovers do not want to see.

It is due to failing with this same scenario continually since the first week of January which has led to it having its tummy tickled by the no gaps cannon fodder model.

Yes its a similar pattern to what we had in January and last week and the GFS doesn't seem to bode well in these kind of situations. I have more faith in the ECM and the UKMO but we cant put down the GFS until the event. Edited by Panayiotis
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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted

Ahh bless, the GFS is still trying by T+204: gfs-0-204.png?12

Signs that the 12z GFS has inched towards the UKMO this evening in the earlier time frame, but there's still a lot to be resolved. You'd think the 12z ECM would lean towards the UKMO output given it's output over recent days.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Ahh bless, the GFS is still trying by T+204: http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-204.png?12

Signs that the 12z GFS has inched towards the UKMO this evening in the earlier time frame, but there's still a lot to be resolved. You'd think the 12z ECM would lean towards the UKMO output given it's output over recent days.

And it still manages a Southwesterly in FI. fool.gif

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

'GFS I'm afraid to tell you you're no longer a top model'

GFS: Why not?

'You're crap that's why,the ECM beats you in every aspect'

GFS: but, but....I can change I swear.....just give me another chance.....

'Too late GFS, too flaming late!'

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