South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 14:00hrs>

[Guest bjaykent]

oh i better not forget the 4th

Thanks John, looks impressive, shame it is GFS in deepest FI LOL. I will enjoy my birthday whatever the weather I guess! Edited February 18, 2013 by bjaykent

[Bluebreezer54]

Foggy here. Plane delays tomorrow no doubt. Can hear them going over tonight but seems muffled in fog.

I can confirm BA are already delaying/cancelling flights in the morning due to forecast fog and low cloud at Heathrow and asking for volunteer staff to help deal with the problems. Oddly enough there is no fog at all here in Nw London

Edited February 18, 2013 by Bluebreezer54

[london-snow]

I can confirm BA are already delaying/cancelling flights in the morning due to forecast fog and low cloud at Heathrow and asking for volunteer staff to help deal with the problems. Oddly enough there is no fog at all here in Nw London

Yep can't see what the fuss is about atm tbh clear as a bell and frosty here in sw london.

[Bluebreezer54]

JP says Booooom. Good enough for me !!

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=150&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

short gfs ensembles look very impressive

[Ruthie]

I can confirm BA are already delaying/cancelling flights in the morning due to forecast fog and low cloud at Heathrow and asking for volunteer staff to help deal with the problems. Oddly enough there is no fog at all here in Nw London

Fog lifting here, but was thick around hour ago. We live in a field with lake at bottom and so no doubt helps feed the fog. I would think..

Certainly a bit Parkie this evening!!

[Bluebreezer54]

Yep can't see what the fuss is about atm tbh clear as a bell and frosty here in sw london.

Well in fairness BA have to plan ahead for any eventuality, so it makes sense for them to have contingency plans in place. Thats what they are doing.

[Guest bjaykent]

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=0&ext=1

short gfs ensembles look very impressive

Good stuff, just need someone to draw a mount Everest on the bottom Line!

[alexisj9]

I can confirm BA are already delaying/cancelling flights in the morning due to forecast fog and low cloud at Heathrow and asking for volunteer staff to help deal with the problems. Oddly enough there is no fog at all here in Nw London

It gets to us in london at day break, they think it may be a slow lifter too.

Edited February 18, 2013 by alexisj9

[Stevieray1]

I think Fergie just ramped up snow for Saturday on the mod thread.... I could be wrong (lots of long words!) so you may need to check!!

[john pike]

post just done on mad thread by ian fergusion

Just a quick note re Saturday, with 12z UKMO-GM offering a much sharper, pronounced upper shortwave trough moving NE to SW as the cyclonic influence of the continental vortex edges closer at the weekend. Latest run much more developed with this feature versus previous output and ensembles, hence treated with due caution regarding reliability currently.... but MOGREPS snow probability mapping (wIdespread 60% - 90% signal across much of S & central UK on Sat) coupled to interesting albeit not excessively worrying snow accumulation prognosis from UK4-Extended means we'll be keeping close tabs on this one in further runs next few days. Cheers.

at least i beat him to it

[Stevieray1]

post just done on mad thread by ian fergusion

Just a quick note re Saturday, with 12z UKMO-GM offering a much sharper, pronounced upper shortwave trough moving NE to SW as the cyclonic influence of the continental vortex edges closer at the weekend. Latest run much more developed with this feature versus previous output and ensembles, hence treated with due caution regarding reliability currently.... but MOGREPS snow probability mapping (wIdespread 60% - 90% signal across much of S & central UK on Sat) coupled to interesting albeit not excessively worrying snow accumulation prognosis from UK4-Extended means we'll be keeping close tabs on this one in further runs next few days. Cheers.

at least i beat him to it

Thanks John, I guessed it was good but didn't know how to post from another thread!!

[Guest bjaykent]

post just done on mad thread by ian fergusion

Just a quick note re Saturday, with 12z UKMO-GM offering a much sharper, pronounced upper shortwave trough moving NE to SW as the cyclonic influence of the continental vortex edges closer at the weekend. Latest run much more developed with this feature versus previous output and ensembles, hence treated with due caution regarding reliability currently.... but MOGREPS snow probability mapping (wIdespread 60% - 90% signal across much of S & central UK on Sat) coupled to interesting albeit not excessively worrying snow accumulation prognosis from UK4-Extended means we'll be keeping close tabs on this one in further runs next few days. Cheers.

at least i beat him to it

Think he copied you John.

[john pike]

Thanks John, I guessed it was good but didn't know how to post from another thread!!

hi stevie

i just copy and paste

about the easiest way to do it

[alexisj9]

I think Fergie just ramped up snow for Saturday on the mod thread.... I could be wrong (lots of long words!) so you may need to check!!

[

post just done on mad thread by ian fergusion

Just a quick note re Saturday, with 12z UKMO-GM offering a much sharper, pronounced upper shortwave trough moving NE to SW as the cyclonic influence of the continental vortex edges closer at the weekend. Latest run much more developed with this feature versus previous output and ensembles, hence treated with due caution regarding reliability currently.... but MOGREPS snow probability mapping (wIdespread 60% - 90% signal across much of S & central UK on Sat) coupled to interesting albeit not excessively worrying snow accumulation prognosis from UK4-Extended means we'll be keeping close tabs on this one in further runs next few days. Cheers.

at least i beat him to it

True you said exactly the same thing lol.

[Bluebreezer54]

It gets to us in london at day break, they think it may be a slow lifter too.

Sounds about right alexisj. Ba are currently planning delays/cancellations between 0700-1100 hours

[Stevieray1]

hi stevie

i just copy and paste

about the easiest way to do it

Yep I guess that would have done it!! Doh! It's late, that's my excuse thanks for the charts and posts, I really appreciate the time you take to post them.

[john pike]

sea temps brrrrrrrr

saturdays fax has a long drawn and cold easterly flow

troughs which should get pulled towards us

tempertures around 0 and a bitter wind chill

sorry jason

i will do a full forecast on wednesday night

[Paul Sherman]

Pea Souper down here

Cant even see the street lights!

[john pike]

18z cold

precip 23rd to 25th

still the 26th on the mean

notice the warmer spell from the 26th is not so warm

is the 18z so wait for the 12z to see how we stand

[Guest bjaykent]

It gets to us in london at day break, they think it may be a slow lifter too.

Was similar to that here Monday morning clear and frosty at 6.00am and pea souper by 7.00am and all gone by 8.30am, looks like it might last longer this morning. Clear and frosty here at the moment.

[Guest bjaykent]

Pea Souper down here

Cant even see the street lights!

do you think I might get a 'fog streamer' up the estuary LOL

[Paul Sherman]

Haha

Yes the Met Guys are expecting it to transfer down the estuary later.

-0.5c Temp and -2c Dewpoint so it is low lying fog at the moment, can still just about see the moon but would expect it to thicken further once the temp and dewpoint equalise each other.

[Tom Jarvis]

Navgem is taking it time to come out what is it currently at

[john pike]

heres a proper x rated chart

over 18 only