scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[Guest]

It's been an impressive spell of settled weather across the country.

You're right about that AWT

I've had my weather station for three weeks now, and have recorded 0.6mm of rain in total. It has been a cracking few weeks with some lovely warm sunny days. Back to dull, cold and grey but that's fine if there is a risk of snow at the end of it all

[LomondSnowstorm]

No, your eyes are not deceiving you, that really is the -15C line moving into central Scotland on Monday morning.

Worried about coastal marginality? Even Hawesy would be getting a pasting under this one:

Maximum temperatures would be very cold for January, never mind March down the east coast:

[November13]

Yep confirmed by MWIS

Planning Outlook: All mountain areas of Britain from Thursday, 7th March, 2013

There has been a major change in the forecast over the last 24 hours, with all forecast models flooding cold air

southwards again across the whole of the UK this weekend. Patchy rain more or less up to highest summits everywhere

on Thursday, but freezing levels will then begin to drop again, with intermittent snow falling on eastern mountains,

initially across Scotland.

Very cold conditions will have reached all mountain areas by the end of the weekend.

Easterly winds will reach gale force on some upland areas, mainly Highland Scotland on Friday and Saturday.

[Guest]

If the GFS 06z comes off somewhere will get an utter pasting, probably further south into England, but it will be epic if the weather resembles the model output. I have everything crossed for this one

[Ravelin]

Damn it, that lovely orange ball in the sky has been replaced this morning with cloudy, grey murk! Cool easterly breeze too.

Not sure what to make of the weekend onwards. I was just getting used to the idea of some nice spring weather and, with the light evenings getting longer, feeling more inclined to try to get outdoors more. If we do get snow though I hope that its a decent fall and not just wet, sleety stuff that doesn't last.

[JoeShmoe]

Can see major TOORPing coming shortly in the MO thread when this is (inevitably) watered down. People salivating over the GFS 6z which is bin fodder. The UKMO still isnt on board and it's still out past T+72 both of which equal major uncertainty

[NUT]

The change has begun (cloud/breeze/spots of drizzle) just a taster before the main event in a few days tmes it would seem

[November13]

I am genuinely excited about this one. For once there is broad agreement that it is going to happen and no marginality!

[ECOSSE1650]

Hello Folks,

This may not be the correct thread for this post but have a look at this clip of thundersnow last week in Denver.

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/weather/2013/02/21/vo-ks-thundersnow.cnn.html

[Hawesy]

No, your eyes are not deceiving you, that really is the -15C line moving into central Scotland on Monday morning.

Worried about coastal marginality? Even Hawesy would be getting a pasting under this one:

Ha ha, was just thinking the same thing myself: 510 dam would do the trick. Even if the -15c 850s don't materialise (and I wouldn't expect the end result to be quite so extreme), something in the -10c to -12c range could result in a memorable mid-March event, especially for those of us who have missed out this winter. Interesting times.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Still far enough away for caution, how many last minute let downs have there been this winter? Quite a few!!

[NUT]

It's that dull outside that the street lamps have came on. Exciting weather!

[Northernlights]

Well on the basis of what the models are predicting any thoughts of sowing spring barley have been put on hold till April and we are just concentrating on the livestock .Hope to finish lifting neeps in the next few days. This may really be the last straw for some farmers if we get another very cold spring.Spoke to another farmer recently who fertilised his barley in June last year as anything put on in April had been washed away but it saved the crop.

.If we continue to see colder springs/early summers we are going to have get used to a shorter growing period.We can adapt a bit as we have long hours of daylight in June and July and we can probably use Scandinavian barleys which have a shorter more intense growing period.

Currently dull,dry 5c and a cold east wind.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Northernlights

[LomondSnowstorm]

If the GFS 06z comes off somewhere will get an utter pasting, probably further south into England, but it will be epic if the weather resembles the model output. I have everything crossed for this one

The GFS has been slowly trending things that bit further north which is very much a positive while the ECM gives the bulk of the cold and snow in the medium term to Scotland. If we end up with a middle ground between all three solutions (including the UKMO) we'll have a reasonably potent easterly followed by a 'cold trough to the east' setup which is the kind that can deliver cold and snow everywhere.

[JoeShmoe]

-15c 850's across the Central Belt

Edited March 6, 2013 by JoeShmoe

[Buriedundersnow]

i think we should try and get a scottish model thread on here

[JoeShmoe]

Doesn't it look relatively dry in most places away from favoured spots on the East Coast?

Edited March 6, 2013 by JoeShmoe

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sorry to be Debbie Downer and all that but outside of a fairly short window it looks dry in most places away from favoured spots on the East Coast?

Potentially yes, although even with the high close by the cold uppers should help drive convection into Monday on the GFS, but the bigger prize on the ECM at least and now perhaps on the GFS is the northeasterly that follows:

Also worth remembering that the transition from rain to snow will not be a dry one like last time but one associated with a cold front heading southwards, which could actually in itself deliver for at least inland parts before the real cold kicks in:

This would probably be the peak of the snowfall, with a strong straight easterly flow and -12C uppers around:

Still with the uppers around I think eastern areas at least would do well through into Monday morning too:

[JoeShmoe]

Thanks LS, although the UKMO has that SE flow to it (not good for here and central as evidenced last time, but bingo for the Borders, Dundee and Fife)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thanks LS, although the UKMO has that SE flow to it (not good for here and central as evidenced last time, but bingo for the Borders, Dundee and Fife)

Not sure the uppers are especially cold on that run, GFS looks a lot better for convective potential certainly and southeasterlies at this time of year are often a bit cold and grey. Still UKMO's been lagging behind for a day or so so we'll see what the ECM has to say on the matter.

[Cheggers]

Am liking the Met Outlook...

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013:

Much colder conditions are expected to develop early next week. Rain, sleet and hill snow in the southeast at first on Monday clearing away with brighter conditions elsewhere spreading south. Snow showers are likely to increasingly affect northern and eastern regions through next week, but all areas are at risk of seeing sleet, hail and snow showers at times. There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places, but there is currently uncertainty regarding which areas are most at risk. There will however, also be some sunshine, particularly further west. Widespread overnight frosts returning with a risk of icy patches. Signals are that it may gradually become slightly less cold by the following week as bands of rain edge eastwards, perhaps preceded by further snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Thursday 4 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Issued at: 1600 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

[onemanmows]

Bit of snow would be good - not liking grey, raw cold and drizzle going on outside at the moment.

[Buriedundersnow]

just watched the weather forecast on bbc24 and it sure looked like from the charts he was showing that they are following the GFS

[Penicuikblizzard]

Looks to me like everything is trending south, and NE England southwards will get all the fun as seemed to have happened all winter, we will end up cold and sunny close to the high, I would rather have sunny and mild at this time of the year!!

[DR(S)NO]

i think we should try and get a scottish model thread on here

In total agreement Buried...here's one for starters.....