scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[Buriedundersnow]

In total agreement Buried...here's one for starters.....

think she would do better in my bedroom than on some thread lol

[Hairy Celt]

A cold, grey day with a biting wind in the north. Virtually no rain for nearly three weeks now, the rivers are now as low as any time since late summer. Should be interesting to see the little remaining flow freeze up over the weekend...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Quality ECM.

120

Fun and games right out to 240.

Similar for the GFS.

Edited March 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[Bullseye]

Steve Murr thinks Scotland will miss out based on latest runs "just flurries"

The snow that is not cold

[Buriedundersnow]

steve murr is talking crap this is 96h on the ecm and that will be snowy

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS at 96h looks snowy aswell.

Edited March 6, 2013 by lorenzo
Removed off topic comment

[Bullseye]

Aye think he's been taking some illegal, LS any thoughts regarding Steve statement would be good if this favoured Scotland too?

[Buriedundersnow]

would add aswell that if u look at all the cold spells so far this winter we havent been able to take anything past 72h-96h as being nailed on so i am not looking past 96h and taking what the models are showing at that time to be what is going to happen anything can change at any time past then

[JoeShmoe]

To be fair to Steve he didn't say we would miss out, he just focused on Englandshire. No one knows who'll get what until this is within T+48

[Norrance]

How much and how long precipitation lasts will perhaps depends on how quickly the high sinks (if it sinks). Even if it does there is potential for at least 24 hours.

Afterwards a possible reload from the NE or alternatively a Northerly for a time perhaps. Not so good Imby but good for the N/NE and for some convection inland perhaps.

Here today was cool, grey and miserable with the odd spit and spot and a freshening SE breeze.

[Buriedundersnow]

this is what steve murr said about scotland and he did say just a few flurries

Now take the ECM 120 Chart-

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?06-0

the equivalent instability to the Feb outbreak is over Scotland- so there just a few flurries there- however as you go further south we go-

536,532,528 & onto 524 heights in -12c air with the flow all the way across the sea.

i think he was only talking about that chart alone and not the rest of the run

see this is why we need a scottish model thread would save on the confusion from reading posts from people in england and would be far easier for us kilted lot to follow

Edited March 6, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[101_North]

I'm not buying any of this..........yet!

[Hairy Celt]

this is what steve murr said about scotland and he did say just a few flurries

Now take the ECM 120 Chart-

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?06-0

the equivalent instability to the Feb outbreak is over Scotland- so there just a few flurries there- however as you go further south we go-

536,532,528 & onto 524 heights in -12c air with the flow all the way across the sea.

i think he was only talking about that chart alone and not the rest of the run

see this is why we need a scottish model thread would save on the confusion from reading posts from people in england and would be far easier for us kilted lot to follow

Surely there's enough space in this thread for all Scottish weather-related posts: models, observations, commentary, wish-lists, random obscurities, etc. Trying to split this up will just make it more fiddly for us all to keep up. (Just my two-pennyworth...)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Surely there's enough space in this thread for all Scottish weather-related posts: models, observations, commentary, wish-lists, random obscurities, etc. Trying to split this up will just make it more fiddly for us all to keep up. (Just my two-pennyworth...)

I agree, during times of national emergency we can always utilise this thread for model related updates and keeping the public informed about the snowmaggedon that will absolutely befall them based on the latest GFS +300.

ECM similar to the GFS in timescale i.e. snow Sunday morning onwards, settling and disruptive Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, dying back towards the coast through Monday, probably reload of sorts from the north-northeast Tuesday/Wednesday.

If we can hold the easterly there properly overnight Sunday into Monday when the -12C/-14C uppers hit that's when we might be able to end up with some really quite deep accumulations, with potential for over a foot including the earlier front for the high ground and 4-6 inches down the east coast, maybe 8 inches for the southeast and spots where a streamer develops (potentially into the central belt too, it does look ripe for Forth-Clyde action).

Different setup from last time also, that was a high that moved just enough north to allow the convection in, this is a low that's moving enough south to let the convection in before the high takes over for a bit.

Not dissimilar to this one:

I think showers got cut off about 9-10pm for most when the flow just died out, ended up with 3cm from it just, though it all fell during the day and the uppers were only -9C for most of it.

I remember getting a snow day from this one too:

Again uppers not quite as impressive and the high fairly close by too, though perhaps slightly longer lasting.

Another fag end easterly for posterity, Forth-Clyde streamer off this one in the evening even though the uppers were nothing special (it was during the joint most amazing winter in my lifetime though when it snowed pretty much every day for a month in small doses).

Edited March 6, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[skifreak]

Steve Murr might have a point, when the coldest air aloft is over us the RH at the 700hpa height is <15%. A very strong humidity inversion with the dry layer acting as a cap on convective potential. However if we enter a convective shower setup we're not going to get accurate detail from the models at more than the shortest range at best. Last May was an example of what can happen though, with well over a foot of snow falling in continual heavy convective snow fall on Friday 11th May on CairnGorm Mountain!

Edited March 7, 2013 by skifreak

[Sunny Leith]

Optimistic that even Leithers might see some snaw out of the coming days. As much as I would be happy to see it, theres also something a bit cruel about cold weather at this time of year...getting close to 12 hours of daylight but with almost mid-winter cold can mess with the heid and the soul a wee bit !

[Guest]

There are still differences between the ECM and GFS at early stages, another interesting day of model watching ahead (after work )

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Where's the 00Z ECM?

EDIT. Oh, speak of the devil.

Edited March 7, 2013 by scottish skier

[mardatha]

They're lambing here now - it always snows during lambing.

[Ravelin]

Well this morning we're into the longest spell of rain I've seen for weeks, cos it's been raining since sometime before I got up at 7am and still is. Cool and very misty too so not a pleasant day at all.

Whatever the models and/or Steve Murr say the BBC Website forecast for Inverurie has us cold and wet for Thu & Fri then cold and dry Sat - Mon, not much sign of snow on it at all. Then again it often changes several times per day, sometimes quite significantly, so there's still hope yet.

[Northernlights]

A bit too wet this morning for neep lifting currently dull, wet, and 4c.

John Holmes seems to think it will remain cool or cold for the next 2 weeks with only the odd milder day so the endless winter on the mountains will roll on for a while yet.

Snowdrops only in full flower now and daffs still very slow.

Geese still coming inland looking for food in neighbouring fields.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The new NASA high resolution model brings in a trough on Sunday evening:

Uppers about as good as any easterly in my lifetime still:

Reload looks very potent on this run too:

High resolution doesn't necessarily mean greater accuracy, but it does mean it's more likely to pick up on smaller details like troughs in the flow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also worth mentioning the NAE has precipitation turning to snow as early as Saturday morning now:

Perhaps even Friday for Aberdeenshire and Angus:

Snowfall accumulation potential is quite significant for Inverness up into Easter Ross and Cromarty (Black Isle maybe even seeing something too) along with inland Angus and southern Aberdeenshire:

[November13]

I think it's the deep cold that's quite exciting for March! Plus there are at least 2 reloads at present. March might end up as the best winter month this year!

[Buriedundersnow]

Surely there's enough space in this thread for all Scottish weather-related posts: models, observations, commentary, wish-lists, random obscurities, etc. Trying to split this up will just make it more fiddly for us all to keep up. (Just my two-pennyworth...)

fair point but i wasnt looking to split this thread up just some people like looking through model threads aswell and some folk get confused looking through all the posts from south of the border because they dont really include scotland in alot of the comments