scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[lorenzo]

The degree of model disparity from the midnight runs is proving a headache now for Exeter, not least with GFS moving to the UKMO-GM solution re Sun-Mon developments to south. However, re the N Sea showers, there is at least some better continuity. These could well prove to be a significant event. Note how the upper trough digs-in across the North Sea before then disrupting... the net result, as evidenced by profiles at 12Z Monday for E coastal areas, is that when synthesized across SST's of 4C, tops go up to below -20C. Clearly, this could generate wintertime low-topped CB's and consequently some locally heavy snow showers. Thereafter, by 12Z Tuesday, a repeat exercise with profiles across SST's of 4C could generate CUSC with tops below -10C. These would be high-based, but local convergence - such as in the Dover Straits - could generate some snow showers in places. Anyway, Exeter re-visiting the warnings in discussions this morning, so anticipate some changes in various respects are likely.

Interesting update from fergieweather in model thread thought I would move it over as many of you dont venture in there..!

Fascinating synoptics for March when apparently...

Edited March 9, 2013 by lorenzo

[Snowplough33]

Interesting update from fergieweather in model thread thought I would move it over as many of you dont venture in there..!

Fascinating synoptics for March when apparently...

Great update. Given he is referring to 12z Monday, is that post possibly englandshire bias, or is your point this is possible generally in North Sea and therefore could be our trigger tomorrow ?

[Ross B]

Light snow here as well. No idea if it's been heavy and settling earlier as I've just got up

[JoeShmoe]

Latest NAE not exactly rife with convective showers but lets hope tomorrow am we start seeing the radar looking interesting

[Hawesy]

Latest NAE not exactly rife with convective showers but lets hope tomorrow am we start seeing the radar looking interesting

No, however at least the Met Office forecasts are mentioning snow showers for tomorrow, which they weren't this time yesterday.

Trouble is I don't see any snow accumulating for long near the coast during the day tomorrow, not even with sub -10c uppers, and any accumulations will quickly melt in the mid-March sun. A different story inland and to high ground of course.

Which leaves the window of opportunity (here, at least) as tomorrow evening/overnight, a period that coincides with the forecast arrival of the coldest air (-13c 850s, 512 dam, on the latest GFS). But will it be dry by then (as the Met O suggest)?

I was/still am hopeful of seeing my first significant snowfall since Dec 2010 (by significant I mean 2-5cm)...but perhaps I'm being wildly optimistic.

[Blizzardo]

Steady rain here in a moderate sse wind but I can see that its has turned to sleet up on the hill to my north and there is chance of me getting a little back edge sleet or wet snow from this band as it sinks west.

Air temperature is 4.5c with a dew point of 2.1c and the upper air temp should be around -2c and gradually falling.

[Blizzardo]

New weather warning that includes many parts of eastern and central Scotland. I like the sound of snow showers becoming aligned into bands:-

Snow showers will affect eastern and northern parts of Scotland, northern England and the northeast Midlands during Sunday and overnight into Monday, although only temporary accumulations of snow are likely during daylight hours on road surfaces.

Accumulations of snow will be very variable during Sunday night, as the showers are expected to become aligned into bands, with some places seeing 2-5 cm of snow and possibly as much as 10 cm over east facing slopes by Monday morning.

Lying snow will drift in the fresh to strong north-easterly winds.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Blizzardo

[doctormog]

Sounds good but the latest BBC Scotland TV forecast only mentioned "wintry showers" and no mention of accumulations, which is contradictory to the warnings.

[BleakMidwinter]

North face of the Pentlands (as seen from attic loo window!) are white... heavier than a dusting, but not heavy snow... yet!

(In heavy snow, the north face looks exactly like the Alps, if you didn't know the distance!)

[Buriedundersnow]

nice to see there is snow falling around the country already i have been advised that it was sleety stuff falling here which i am really glad about cos if i can get sleet here today then it looks good for being snow later even at this level.

[Hawesy]

Sounds good but the latest BBC Scotland TV forecast only mentioned "wintry showers" and no mention of accumulations, which is contradictory to the warnings.

Ah but Michael we know BBC Scotland forecasters have a long-standing allergy to snow. ;-)

Looks like my earlier hopecast of 2-5cm is reasonable given the warnings....now it'll just be a case of waiting and watching the bands form north and south of here tomorrow while we're left bone dry.

[Buriedundersnow]

hopefully LS can update us on how the skew charts are looking to see if the convection will gain any further hieght.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sounds good but the latest BBC Scotland TV forecast only mentioned "wintry showers" and no mention of accumulations, which is contradictory to the warnings.

Sometimes their use of 'wintry showers' is just bizarre. There's literally no marginality through tomorrow, anywhere in Scotland, and even if temperatures rise a bit in the sun they'll quickly get dragged down towards 0C in the showers, with dewpoints easily sub -5C:

Latest NAE, all things considered, is quite promising:

Hints that the convectional flavour will continue for eastern Scotland into Monday too:

NMM wants to bring in the showers overnight tonight into tomorrow as well, and with uppers below -8C from about midnight this could give accumulations, before the trough moves in (the NMM however has this further north than some of the other models). Peak convection times for the central eastern part are around 6am-12pm Sunday, and midnight to 6am Monday where we see hints of another trough on the NMM dropping into the northeast and then working their way southwards.

[Norrance]

Nice coating on the Sidlaws this morning. Dull and damp here. 3.5C Cold wind from the East.

[Buriedundersnow]

updated ppn charts from the NASA HI RES model and it doesnt show any convection till tomorrow on this

[LomondSnowstorm]

hopefully LS can update us on how the skew charts are looking to see if the convection will gain any further hieght.

Reasonable news, the dry sector in general looks a bit less pronounced though still probably prohibitive enough to cap showers through the day tomorrow, certainly at points:

6am sees a much more promising profile though, with potential for some really quite impressive convection and actually there isn't much of a dry lid at all there

Skew-ts illustrative of further snow potential into tuesday, this time frontal in nature, and I'll use the Aberdeenshire skew-t for a bit of geographical variance:

So all in all an interesting few days coming up.

[Buriedundersnow]

Reasonable news, the dry sector in general looks a bit less pronounced though still probably prohibitive enough to cap showers through the day tomorrow, certainly at points:

6am sees a much more promising profile though, with potential for some really quite impressive convection and actually there isn't much of a dry lid at all there

Skew-ts illustrative of further snow potential into tuesday, this time frontal in nature, and I'll use the Aberdeenshire skew-t for a bit of geographical variance:

So all in all an interesting few days coming up.

looks ok and hopefully they might come a little further towards the better side a bit closer to the time

[Buriedundersnow]

might just be me but the models seem to be a little out and the cold air might be moving in a little sooner as the NAE thinks the front will still be touching the central belt at 6 this evening

but if u look at the weather radar here the front has already cleared the central belt

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

[Buriedundersnow]

would just like to say all the best to scotland and hopefully we will see a good outcome from the match against wales today as it has really been good seeing there recent performances and really makes a change from getting humped aw the time

[November13]

C,mon Scotland....and Italy of course!

[Hairy Celt]

C,mon Scotland....and Italy of course!

'fraid not, no. The 'your enemy's enemy is your friend' thinking is just sad.

[LomondSnowstorm]

'fraid not, no. The 'your enemy's enemy is your friend' thinking is just sad.

This time is perhaps a bit different though because if Italy do win we remain in with a shot of actually winning the six nations this time as opposed to just seeing England fail.

[Buriedundersnow]

what we were talking about lastnight LS with the faxes and it looked like one trough or two coming into the east coast well with the NMM it looks like two seperate troughs not just one working its way down the east coast

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

If Scotland are not playing, then I always support the underdog. Nothing wrong with that.

Never met a Hearts supporter that wanted Hibs to win too either. If you support your derby rival, it means you don't rate them/don't see them as a good team/don't see them as a threat to your own success. It's quite condescending really.

In contrast, 'Anyone but XYZ' is a very big complement to XYZ...

2.7 C here. All me earlier snaw gone. Waiting on new snaw.

Edited March 9, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

what we were talking about lastnight LS with the faxes and it looked like one trough or two coming into the east coast well with the NMM it looks like two seperate troughs not just one working its way down the east coast

Same story with the Met Office precipitation charts (based on their own very high res UKV modelling). Often happens that way, with more features being picked up closer to the time. Not sure they'd qualify as troughs on the FAX charts or if it's simply a nice amount of convection but either way it's good news.,