scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[Buriedundersnow]

Convection !

http://www.theweathe...m/habyhints/54/

cheers lorenzo

[lorenzo]

Your welcome BUS , great to see you in about the charts on our Regional Thread, enjoy looks like the weather models have got you hooked

You are more than welcome to join us winter weary addicts !

Edited March 9, 2013 by lorenzo

[Buriedundersnow]

yeah got it pretty sussed just hope its not annoying anyone lol

[shuggee]

That band of showers incoming for the NE really picking up now. Should arrive in Aberdeen soon.

0.7 C here and dropping at a good rate.

Looking very interesting that snow band - feeding from the east and sinking south. Reminiscent of winter 2009/10?

[Buriedundersnow]

have a look for a post i'm doing on monday afternoon might be worth a look

[lorenzo]

Am delighted with this evolution JMA worked it on the MJO plots around 27th Feb and I thought 2nd third of March would herald cold evolution and eventual arrival of Greenland high, I always keep an eye on the JMA as it is a well published model on the strat input and then seeing it stealing a march ( no pun intended at all here ) on the MJO signal was a bit of a clue to the potential.

So many wild cards and especially from the MJO this winter where the background analogs have not pulled through that I though well this one might. That beautiful westerly that surprised with the convective flourish was in my mind the remnants of the Canadian warming energy finally flushing down through the hpa levels meaning the good ole MJO could come through, and hey ho the JMA was first on point and here we are.

Good fun this Winter !

[Hairy Celt]

LOL ! Ghastly thought HC ! where are those sunset pics u promised from earlier in the month?????

Lordy; on the other PC in the cold room. Will this do for now?

and the zipped original which is rather less blurry...

Edited March 9, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[Buriedundersnow]

better looking NASA HIGH RES than ECM/GFS/UKMO at 120h

i think the orientation of the high pressure to the southwest of the uk looks better for allowing a reload

i used the 18z GFS but used the 114h chart so is at same point in time

just noticed the LP is at a better angle aswell

Edited March 9, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[A Winter's Tale]

Another raw day with a bone chilling easterly. Maximum temperature of 4C is a reminder of how winter weather very much exists in March more often than not. This coming spell however is a bit more significant than any old chilly day. Very cold uppers in a fresh easterly flow - particulary on Sunday - would make for a bitterly cold weather. Air temperature very similar to a cold day in winter but combined with the wind and it may feel like -5C. Another characteristic is the theme of sunshine combined with 'wintry showers'. For the next 24hrs or so, the showers could be hit or miss and heavier and more organised in some areas than others, but I expect plenty of excitement in here - especially in eastern parts - with some places in the firing line for classic north sea convection and maybe some beefy showers with cumulonimbus clouds. The radar should reveal everything, convective activity may vary across the eastern counties but prepare yourself for something a little more active than the scenarios illustrated by BBC forecasts. As for here in the western end of the central belt, I'll settle for seeing some snow flurries but I'll hope that there'll be enough convective activity for rather prolonged and beefy showers to feed through the forth-clyde valley. A heavy snowfall with some accumilations would make for a delightful end to a decent 2012/2013 season but I'm happy with just getting the March snowfall in the bag and hearing reports of the events in the high-risk areas. Last year, the last significant snowfall was in early April with the last snowflakes in lowland Scotland falling in early May. This season, the fun started earlier in late October and it'll be intruiging to see how late the snow will finish this time round. It'll be a pleasure to see the rest of this Spring unfold with the last of the winter weather, the tranquility of normal Spring days and the first warmth. Just about all of us enjoyed that exceptional warm and sunny spell in late March last year, perhaps it'll be closer to a March 2006 this year rather than 2012, but hopefully there'll be a few warmer days as April goes on and a dry, sunny and warm May like 2008 or 2000 would be just lovely and by then I think many of us will be on the same wavelength as Gavin....for once!!!

[Guest]

I didn't have time to load this up before work today, but here's the snow from this morning, all gone now though:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking very interesting that snow band - feeding from the east and sinking south. Reminiscent of winter 2009/10?

Oh yes, that was quite an event. NMM didn't even have that band making landfall until about 3-4 am when it was meant to just graze the northeast before heading inland for the northern half of Scotland. I'm not quite sure what to do with that to be honest, that event in contrast was magnificently flagged up by the NMM even when the Met Office showed it as dry.

Anyway, the NMM does show convectional possibilities around through into Monday afternoon for much of Scotland so certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Certainly no marginality by the time it gets to Monday morning:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Foudland.

Mon the snaw.

[Buriedundersnow]

looking at how the radar is picking up it looks like might be a sleepless night tonight

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

[Guest]

The TAF for Edinburgh Airport is forecasting possible light snow showers from 4am until midnight, with a forecast of possible snow showers between 6am and 2pm.

Even the Glasgow Airport TAF has light snow on it, but we'll believe that when we see it.

[over_the_rainbow]

yeah got it pretty sussed just hope its not annoying anyone lol

Nope - carry on! I, for one, appreciate anyone that is remotely more knowledgable than myself (that will be most then) for chipping in and posting charts.

If you are staying up tonight, anyone, I hope you are rewarded with some snaw. Lovely to see some kilters had some this morning already. Look forward to more pics from you guys (and ladies) in the morning.

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like a fair bit of hefty shower clouds out there

[Guest]

Impressive for any time of year, -14ºC uppers nibbling the east coast of Scotland. Not something we see very often and surely not in March

[Polar Gael]

Raw again today in Embra. Max of 3.6ºC and a min of 2.1ºC.

Currently, 2.9ºC/-4ºC and the wind has picked up considerably during the evening.

I ventured out the back briefly and can confirm that the current conditions are already 'delivering':

Edited March 10, 2013 by Polar Gael

[Buriedundersnow]

18z fax charts

[Polar Gael]

Tartan Winter Spring Forecast update* from our new weather correspondent:

*might save this one for next year's winter TOORPing thread & deploy as necessary...likely every five minutes on previous form...

[lorenzo]

To be honest we all win here - the eventual Greenie set up - wow.

A long lag from the SSW , those that have been up close have seen it balk at close range but no, simply it is an ssw deivering sustained reversal of trend, immediately in jan then lagging right through til now. Sorry if the response is not all 09 /10 but lets face it strat wins.

[Buriedundersnow]

yet another example tonight of the met office getting north sea convection totally wrong

[LomondSnowstorm]

yet another example tonight of the met office getting north sea convection totally wrong

It's about to make landfall. Could be a very interesting morning, with that trough passing through followed by what looks to be a streamer on that 18Z fax chart tomorrow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

To be honest we all win here - the eventual Greenie set up - wow.

A long lag from the SSW , those that have been up close have seen it balk at close range but no, simply it is an ssw deivering sustained reversal of trend, immediately in jan then lagging right through til now. Sorry if the response is not all 09 /10 but lets face it strat wins.

The doubters still probably won't admit they were wrong, but it has been an absolutely textbook response to the SSW, with the immediate response providing the January cold spell, and the later downwelling episodes providing the February easterly and now this a full two months later. It even had the customary 'lull' in the blocking pattern around the end of January and start of February. The two week period prior to this was also, not coincidentally, the mildest and most zonal of the winter. The whole episode has been an unparalleled success for strat analyses and one which even the likes of Chiono probably couldn't have wished for.

[Snowplough33]

Heavy blowing snow. All surfaces white. Best looking snow we have had this season by a long way. A couple if cms already.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Snowplough33