South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18/02/13 20z --->

[Mapantz]

8.2°C lightrain and some every dense fog. Wareham has disappeared.

[AWD]

Just thought I would repost this from Ian in the MOD thread;

"Based on latest NAE and amalgamation with 00z GM, we see dynamic snow accumulations of 5-10cm through Midlands later Sunday. Exeter have re-modelled this, factoring-in diurnal influence and depth temperature. Settling will be intensity-dependent and current prognosis is catering for 5-10cm above 300m; 1-3cm lower levels. It's outside warning criteria (impact-based) for now. However, accumulations in far S / SW overnight into early Monday look a tad more concerning and are being closely watched in output."

Last sentance could be Interesting for our Cornish folk.

[TwisterGirl81]

I am loving the charts this morning for 'Precipitation Type' although BBC are not really indicating anothing major and have most of the snow hitting Normandy and Brittany in France? Maybe they're predicting the moisture a little further south than other forecasters?! If the charts do happen to turn true it could be very snowy in the SouthWest on Monday and Tuesday.

I did say a few days ago 'what would happen if it were a SouthWest affair....stranger things happen'

Mullender.....those pigs are getting ready to take flight lol!

Edited March 8, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[Bristawl Si]

I am loving the charts this morning for 'Precipitation Type' although BBC are not really indicating anothing major and have most of the snow hitting Normandy and Brittany in France? Maybe they're predicting the moisture a little further south than other forecasters?! If the charts do happen to turn true it could be very snowy in the SouthWest on Monday and Tuesday.

I did say a few days ago 'what would happen if it were a SouthWest affair....stranger things happen'

Mullender.....those pigs are getting ready to take flight lol!

Snow through The Channel is notoriously difficult to predict this far out, for exact locations to be hit.

I've seen T48 hour forecasts predict a hit for SW and S England, and then for T12 it shunts off into N France. And, i've seen the oppositie happen.

If the model output, in next 24 hours, starts to firm up on a more northerly track into SW and S England then it could be game on for our region.

Sadly i won't be here to enjoy it!

[cornish snow]

Just thought I would repost this from Ian in the MOD thread;

"Based on latest NAE and amalgamation with 00z GM, we see dynamic snow accumulations of 5-10cm through Midlands later Sunday. Exeter have re-modelled this, factoring-in diurnal influence and depth temperature. Settling will be intensity-dependent and current prognosis is catering for 5-10cm above 300m; 1-3cm lower levels. It's outside warning criteria (impact-based) for now. However, accumulations in far S / SW overnight into early Monday look a tad more concerning and are being closely watched in output."

Last sentance could be Interesting for our Cornish folk.

Afraid,it's a case of believe it when i see it .

Lost count over the years how many times these channel low 87 type events have failed to deliver.

Always very knife edge stuff,especially for us on the coast.

Low to far south,stays dry and cold.

Low to far north,buckets of rain.

Seems that any low pressure has to be positioned with pin point accuracy for us to benefit.

[TwisterGirl81]

Wow the charts are looking even more better this morning for SouthWest.....eeek I'm so excited! lol

[AWD]

Wow the charts are looking even more better this morning for SouthWest.....eeek I'm so excited! lol

Caution dear, caution. :p

All looking very interesting but a smidgen to far out for orgasmic ecstasy just yet.

Can't help but feel excited at the potential however.

[cornish snow]

Just watching the GFS 6z and wondering what similarities the current set up has with the fabled 1891 great blizzard.

Certainly same time of year.Same gale force E/NE winds etc

Probably a silly question because it's so long ago but are there any synoptic archive charts available from that time?.

I would have thought,they wouldn't look to different to what's been shown now.

[cerneman]

I am loving the charts this morning for 'Precipitation Type' although BBC are not really indicating anothing major and have most of the snow hitting Normandy and Brittany in France? Maybe they're predicting the moisture a little further south than other forecasters?! If the charts do happen to turn true it could be very snowy in the SouthWest on Monday and Tuesday.

I did say a few days ago 'what would happen if it were a SouthWest affair....stranger things happen'

Mullender.....those pigs are getting ready to take flight lol!

Flight plan submitted, Now depends on the weather

[Andy Bown]

Something people seem to be missing is Ian's points about settling snow being intensity dependant, if it's anything less than moderate to heavy

snow then it probably won't settle as the ground has warmed quite a lot - unless it occurs overnight and that is looking possible Sunday into

Monday.

[5thchang]

Just watching the GFS 6z and wondering what similarities the current set up has with the fabled 1891 great blizzard.

Certainly same time of year.Same gale force E/NE winds etc

Probably a silly question because it's so long ago but are there any synoptic archive charts available from that time?.

I would have thought,they wouldn't look to different to what's been shown now.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

I am loving the charts this morning for 'Precipitation Type' although BBC are not really indicating anothing major and have most of the snow hitting Normandy and Brittany in France? Maybe they're predicting the moisture a little further south than other forecasters?! If the charts do happen to turn true it could be very snowy in the SouthWest on Monday and Tuesday.

I did say a few days ago 'what would happen if it were a SouthWest affair....stranger things happen'

Mullender.....those pigs are getting ready to take flight lol!

This is because ECM has things further South I expect, UKMO and GM both project a more N trajectory. It's a case of monitoring for consistencies, and then applying probability.

[That ECM]

Net weather must of been buzzing when that run came out!!

[Fred Sykes]

Just watched regional forecast, dry Sunday, dry Monday, and a risk of a dusting of snow on high ground on Tuesday! Nothing epic about that

[divadee]

sneaking on at work, and looking at the latest charts. It would be great if we got a hit, and im praying for a snow day from work.

[Beast of Plympton]

Just been like in the MOD thread.... Ian F has said accumulations into early monday in the far S/SW look a little concerning and they are keep an eye on it.... Could be interesting!!

[5thchang]

Net weather must of been buzzing when that run came out!!

Yes took ages for the gfs to roll out.

Edited March 8, 2013 by 5thchang

[cerneman]

"Mommy If it snows,can I have day off school"

"Wait and see darling, You know how forum members get over excited ! "

Edited March 8, 2013 by cerneman

[Beast of Plympton]

"Mommy If it snows,can I have day off school"

"Wait and see darling, You know how forum members get over excited ! "

Haha!! What do you mean over excited?? Im not over excited!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The ECMWF precipitation Charts are not very good for our area , and have the main band missing most of us , Except maybe clipping Penzance briefly. Finger's crossed for a Northerly correction later tonight . or we could end up bone dry Sunday/Monday.

[George]

Met Office have issued a warning for snow on sun and mon for parts of our region

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?map=Warnings&fcTime=1362787200

Edited March 8, 2013 by George

[divadee]

oh how i wish the netweather snow risk forcast charts come off for here!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Met Office have issued a warning for snow on sun and mon for parts of our region

http://www.metoffice...Time=1362787200

keeping the faith!!! dare i tell them at work yet!

[karlos1983]

Met Office have issued a warning for snow on sun and mon for parts of our region

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?map=Warnings&fcTime=1362787200

Great, now wait for the shift north, what's the bet that this ends up as a "North of the M4 corridor" event. Met warnings 3 days out When IMBY rarely come to fruition, but here's to hoping!!!

[divadee]

Great, now wait for the shift north, what's the bet that this ends up as a "North of the M4 corridor" event. Met warnings 3 days out When IMBY rarely come to fruition, but here's to hoping!!!

karlos stay positive, glass half full not half empty!

[cerneman]

Yellow warning time again for parts region

Bet these guys thought they out of work, Now official winter over