Model Discussion 12Z 25/02/13

[winterof79]

ECM 216 http://www.meteociel...1-216.GIF?28-12

GFS 216 http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-216.png?0

Long way off but interesting nonetheless.

ECM 240 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013022800/ECH1-240.GIF?28-12

Definately something brewing to our north.Spring may be put on hold.

Edited February 28, 2013 by winterof79

[IDO]

GFS brings the Arctic high in to play and has some serious result if you run the sequence

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1 850s not an issue

ECM has the high modelled early on too http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0

March has the halmarks of being below average this year.All in all it has been cold since Jan 15th with the odd milder incursion early on.

Those FY charts! Not much support for the GFS op run in bringing that Arctic plunge (when it does,late in FI):

Though other members also hinting at this, but earlier.

Overall, for the next ten days the 850s mean hover around +5c so no cold. 2m temps gradually recovering to average later in that period. ECM also same synoptics as GFS over the next ten days. High for 5/6 days eventually pushed east by Atlantic trough bringing less cold winds, a rise in temps (to nearer normal) and more unsettled.

D9 from GFS: and ECM:

After that strong hints of cooling down again (N/S accentuated) and the possibility of an Arctic blast close to our eastern flank.

[cooling climate]

The coldest weather of the winter is on its way according to the 0z GFS run with a run to

really wet the appitite of winter weather lovers. Frigid cold uppers and plenty of snow to

boot.

The ECM is heading in exactly the same direction and is a great pity that the run does

not go beyond t240. A really potent east/northeasterly setting up in later time frames.

plenty to be optimistic about for winter weather lovers this morning.

[bluearmy]

That naefs spread signal post 10th remains and now appears to be setting up on fi ops

[Frosty.]

The Gfs and Ecm 00z are showing a trend towards much milder weather developing across the southern half of the uk next week with temps from tuesday onwards approaching 12c, maybe nudging 13-14c later next week but always rather cooler for scotland with temps closer to average, it also looks like trending unsettled as our high sinks away southeastwards early next week and pressure falls as low pressure spreads in from the southwest so spells of rain becoming a feature of next week, especially for southwestern britain, also some drier, sunnier spells but with showers too, winds generally from the south next week, all the way from southern europe, hence those 13c temps from midweek. Looking further ahead, the models are showing a developing cold block across northeast europe with arctic/scandi high, just see how and if this develops but it's way out in FI beyond T+240 hours, the gfs turns into a beauty towards the end but after the current anticyclonic spell crumbles, it looks like a spell of mild and unsettled weather is now locked in but in the longer term we could possibly be plunged back into deep winter by mid march, cold fans just need to keep an eye on developments to the north and northeast over the next 7-10 days, it could become very interesting later.

[weather eater]

The coldest weather of the winter is on its way according to the 0z GFS run with a run to

really wet the appitite of winter weather lovers. Frigid cold uppers and plenty of snow to

boot.

The ECM is heading in exactly the same direction and is a great pity that the run does

not go beyond t240. A really potent east/northeasterly setting up in later time frames.

plenty to be optimistic about for winter weather lovers this morning.

Plenty to be optimistic about certainly, but we should have learnt by now that jam tomorrow charts are going to change, we don’t want to see eye candy charts in FI they always without fail get watered down. Plenty of scope in the current pattern to develop into something decent, sudden upgrades at 120hrs is what we want to see. Meanwhile clear and bright here and minus 4.4 on my weather gauge at 7 this morning, perfect.

Edited February 28, 2013 by weather eater

[Timmytour]

Looking at the models yesterday I was giving up on another shot of winter. But it was leaving me a little perplexed as to why the bushes that had been laden with red berries prior to the onset of the first of our cold spells, still had enough on them to suggest another one might be possible.

I'm not sure if another cold spell would restore my faith in the models or in nature! :lol:

On another note...the last of the snow, from where it had been piled up from what we got two weeks ago, was finally gone from the car park at work yesterday. So in a way that's been two periods of 14 days lying snow! Not bad, not bad at all when I put it in the memory bank next to some winters I've known. Whether or not we get another shot.

[nick sussex]

Good agreement between the GFS and ECM for a weakening of the western negative NAO and a rise of pressure to the ne.

The high if it verifies does come with some unseasonably cold air on its southern flank and if that cold pool did manage to hit the UK it would certainly bring some snow.

However its a long way off and we still have the concerns as to how far west that cold gets but certainly I can't remember that depth of cold in March being modelled anywhere near the UK since my time on the net.

But if its cold and snow you want then even with the fast increase in solar energy both the GFS/ECM have the ability to deliver that if everything goes right.

Looking through the GEFS there are some members bringing the cold in even earlier and some of the 850's progged for eastern Europe are to not be too dramatic astonishing for this late in the season.

Can you imagine just how cold those would be in the middle of winter! Anyway I really shouldn't start ramping this up because theres alot of hurdles to get through and the problems for the UK to get that are how far west that cold gets and does the main thrust make a direct hit on the UK or end up in mainland Europe, personally I'd be very happy to see this miss me down here and stay further north, I really can't complain with the recent snow here and would like to see the hysteria break out in here as that cold pool hits the UK!!!

Edited February 28, 2013 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

GFS is quite ironic after yesterday's debate over whether you can get a cold Easterly in March!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=348&code=0&mode=1

Before anyone gets the sledge out, it's worth noting GFS is a cold outlier ESP in the south

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Edited February 28, 2013 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

Morning, as mentioned the other day the total breakdown of the mean westerly flow over pole looks like producing a screaming easterly negative AO index with the mid lattitudes loaded with cold.

Whilst many will be gearing up for spring the ECM and more particular UKMO look to present us with one last chance winter saloon with significant forcing nw towards iceland at 144 allowing high pressure to form towards iceland. As a result a strong undercut has the *potential * to squeeze the cold west across europe. I hinted at this developing in my last few posts, however the evolution has been a tad slower than expected. Obviously we need a bullseye of the cold over the UK but there is a chance..... A lowish one but its there......

UKMO 144 is awsome today

S

[nick sussex]

Morning, as mentioned the other day the total breakdown of the mean westerly flow over pole looks like producing a screaming easterly negative AO index with the mid lattitudes loaded with cold.

Whilst many will be gearing up for spring the ECM and more particular UKMO look to present us with one last chance winter saloon with significant forcing nw towards iceland at 144 allowing high pressure to form towards iceland. As a result a strong undercut has the *potential * to squeeze the cold west across europe. I hinted at this developing in my last few posts, however the evolution has been a tad slower than expected. Obviously we need a bullseye of the cold over the UK but there is a chance..... A lowish one but its there......

UKMO 144 is awsome today

S

Morning Steve nice to have you back!

Do you remember anything that cold in terms of 850's showing this late into the season, I know there was a few years with cold at the turn of February into March but I don't remember seeing anything close to those uppers to the east?

[SMU]

March 1962!!!!!!

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report from the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Thursday February 28th 2013.

All models show good support for the sequence of events as follows over the next 7 days. High pressure lies close to NW Britain with a slack North flow over the UK carrying areas of cloud South over the UK at times. One such band in association with a weak cold front sinks South tonight and tomorrow bringing a little drizzle and freshening the NE breeze over the South of the UK again tomorrow making it feel cold. Through the weekend High pressure sits right over the UK though still with a lot of cloud trapped underneath it in light variable winds. A few sunnier breaks are possible and it should stay largely dry. Then through the first half of next week all models support High pressure moving away across Europe with a SE flow developing over the UK. Pressure will fall for all areas and troughs of Low pressure moving slowly North and East will reach the SW of Britain midweek with some rain in association with a depression down to the SW.

GFS then shows further pulses of rain from the South as the first attack fails midweek. This new pulse makes further inroads North into the UK than it's predecessor bringing milder Southerly winds across the UK for a time with further rain at times, especially in the West. Then through FI Low pressure disrupts to the West and slides across the UK and into Europe as pressure builds strongly over Scandinavia. This would mean rain with snow on Northern hills would develop as cold Easterly winds return pushing further South as the Low pulls away East. Towards the end of FI Easterly winds become established again, especially over the South with snow showers developing once more across the South and East to end the run.

The GFS Ensembles show that the operational above was a rank outsider with it's end of run cold snap with the general mood of the pack to keep things much closer to the seasonal normal though trending rather chillier with time in the North. Rainfall events peak towards the end of next week as the Low pressure to the SW takes hold before falling rather again towards the end of the run North and South.

The Jet Stream continues to show the main arm of the flow well South of the UK over southern Europe with little support for much of a shift to this in the coming week. A weaker Northern arm continues to blow slowly East across areas to the North of the UK too for some time yet.

UKMO for the middle of next week shows a SE flow over the UK with Low pressure to the NW of Spain. It would be generally rather cloudy and with troughs pulling slowly North and East into the UK the South and West in particular would see some rain at times developing. Temperatures would be close to normal generally in this set up.

GEM shows a fall of pressure too midweek under a SE flow with depressions ganging up to the Southwest. This model though holds them South of the UK backing winds off towards the East and bringing rather cold and dull conditions back across the UK late in the week with some cold rain at times here and a cold and strong raw wind from the East in the South.

ECM today shows Low pressure making more Northerly inroads up the Eastern edge of the North Atlantic tilting winds across Britain to a more Southerly point later next week with rain making good progress across many areas while introducing milder air too. However, late in it's run a return to colder conditions looks likely soon after the termination of the run as rising pressure to the North pulls Low pressure back slowly towards the South and SE with colder East winds returning South over the UK with time, reaching the North first, right at the end of the run and probably sinking South to other areas in the days following day 10.

In Summary today I don't see much sign of Spring showing in the charts today. There looks to be another 5-6 days of set fair weather with a lot of cloud around with all in all rather benign and uninspiring weather affecting many areas through this spell. Then a change to more unsettled conditions look like taking hold especially in the South and West later next week with rain at times. It's progress towards the North and East looks painfully slow with the chance that rising pressure to the North or Northeast later next week and the period that follows brings the chance of cold East winds back over the UK once more further into March. The depth and severity of cold shown by GFS at the end of its run has next to no support but it isn't the only Easterly evolution shown in the output this morning so we will have to wait and see whether further output shows this evolution as a growing accentuating over the coming days.

[nick sussex]

March 1962!!!!!!

Thanks, interesting I'll go and have a look at what happened.

[mushymanrob]

For an easterly to bring widespread snowfalls at this time of year, it needs to be sourced from a fair way north, essentially an easterly with a "northerly" source, and this becomes increasingly true as the season progresses. I remember a couple of easterlies that brought sunshine and heavy snow showers to north-eastern Britain in March 2001,but most "easterly" Marches are dull, dry and cold- a particularly stark example happened in 1996. This is because the continent warms up a lot faster than the North Sea and so continental easterlies become increasingly stable, but it remains very cold at upwards of 70 degrees north and those air masses still provide a fair amount of instability during March and April.

bib... dont know where you were in march 96 mate, i was outside preparing a new school for the commencement of a new contract. march 96 was anticyclonic, bright warm sunshine by day, quite hard frosts by night, temp ranged from +10c / -4c for about 2 weeks.

well this mornings gfs in deep fi suggests a cold blast in the second week of march as several have already mentioned as a possibility. cold easterlies at easter/march are not uncommon, but snowy ones are. i absolutely agree with tws post above (apart from march 96 lol), winds from the easterly quadrant at this time of year are usually raw, dull, grey. only on very rare occassions can i recall any snow and the times that i can it was only light showers (think it was march 98 the last time, oh and early march 06).

until the anomaly charts suggest such a synoptic chart depicting something easterly and cold (the best indicator of what might happen 8 - 10 days time ? ), id suggest its not worth getting excited about... its all in fi (at least for now)

until then theres plenty of very pleasant early spring weather to enjoy where the sun breaks through.

[Methuselah]

Looks like there's a chance of a easterly, in 15 days' time...Isn't that just the story of model-watching?

[mushymanrob]

In Summary today I don't see much sign of Spring showing in the charts today.

really? in any sunshine its about as good as we can reasonably expect at this time of the year...

[SomeLikeItHot]

really? in any sunshine its about as good as we can reasonably expect at this time of the year...

Sunshine? someone has sunshine? Actually I thought I saw it out the window yesterday but it was gone by the time I got outside.

[CWT2012]

No point getting excited about stuff showing in FI, can't remember the last extreme FI solution that was actually right, this starts showing at 96 instead of 240 i will start getting excited but until then its meaningless eye candy

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Both the GFS and ECM Ensembles show it turning milder next week, with temps into double figures. It sill looks like quite a cloudy affair and it's hard to pin down where will see sunshine and where won't. No sign of any rain until at least Weds, and even then it doesn't look like being anything significant at this stage.

There are signs that it may once again turn cooler at the end of next week into next weekend but as this is still out in FI it's not guaranteed at this time.

Edited February 28, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[TEITS]

Just for fun but if the 0Z GFS occurred in Dec or Jan then we would be looking at max temps of -6C, basically it would be a repeat of Jan 87, Feb 91. Even saying that it would still bring plenty of snow and even ice days at this time of year.

The 9th/10th continue to be the important dates for me. My favourite output this morning is the UKMO because it would bring in the colder NE/E,lys sooner. Whilst many are thinking of spring we could potentially see the most wintry spell of the winter from the 10th March onwards. I bet the likes of British Gas are rubbing their hands together!!

Looks like there's a chance of a easterly, in 15 days' time...Isn't that just the story of model-watching?

I could save alot of time and effort and just copy and paste my posts.

Edited February 28, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Gibby]

really? in any sunshine its about as good as we can reasonably expect at this time of the year...

You obviously don't remember March 2012 then.

[russell k]

You obviously don't remember March 2012 then.

Yes! BBQ weather 15 miles north of glasgow, shorts and T shirts, i think some records were broken, best weather of the summer up here!

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run has moved towards the UKMO which is interesting! Lets see if that trough disrupts quicker and brings in the cold earlier than the 00hrs run.

Better early not so good later because the pattern wants to retrogress, and this pushes the main cold thrust too far south.

You really need to see the high orientated more ese/wnw and further west, still in the higher resolution its a good run in terms of trend.

Edited February 28, 2013 by nick sussex

[SomeLikeItHot]

A Glancing Blow in FI on the 6z