Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[Man With Beard]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-0-144.png?6

A couple of runs at the extreme end now bringing in the -16c line

S

This charts sees all of England and Wales below -14 at the same time. Even Feb 1991 didn't manage that, you have to go back to 1987. Just how cold would this have been in January?

[CWT2012]

Good times ahead, looks like potentially record snowfall for March if particularly the GFS verifies, 12-18" of snow quite widespread in eastern parts with the strength of those winds and those uppers.

Things can still go pear shaped but the 6z is definitely a massive upgrade which could paralyse eastern Britain

[Snowman.]

This charts sees all of England and Wales below -14 at the same time. Even Feb 1991 didn't manage that, you have to go back to 1987. Just how cold would this have been in January?

The same just I would be in about 30cm of snow.

Shame that January wasn't like this.

Day temps around -1 widely or lower.

Edited March 6, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Summer Sun]

Until the UKMO comes on board I'm not buying into it.

There's no doubting the GFS and ECM show some excellent synoptics, but all winter we've seen these two models throw out absolutely cracking runs only for them to gradually get watered down into practically nothing. To be honest, all models have performed quite poorly this winter with lots of amazing charts but none of them actually verifying.

Ian fergusson tweeted this a few hours back

"@MarkyStew77: @fergieweather What does MOGREPS say regarding next week? Looking #chilly" Develops NE'rly later than EC but net result same.

Cold is now certain its just the timing which remains uncertain

[Ian Brown]

Don't forget Fred we have four days and opportunity to make up any losses with 10 race cards, and 13.30 starts so that should allow for temperatures to get above 0 by around 11 to enable covers to be removed.

Wednesday into Thursday looks interesting with both ECM and GFS picking up the potential for a shortwave to slide SE.

It's not going to be a warm Festival, infact I think we'll be calling it the 'Frigid Festival'. Long johns already packed !!

The key consideration being state of the ground and with Clerk of the Course not watering (and probably prevented from watering from Saturday onwards due to frost covers being in place), should enter the Festival with a mix of good, good to soft in places.

On a more serious note, lots of alcohol and temperatures this low are going to lead to some serious risks to health.

Yes if a day is lost, the races could be fitted in to the other days as was the case a few years back when the Wednesday was lost to high winds. What is a concern is if snow falls on Monday, even if temps recover on the Tuesday, melting snow would cause waterlogging.

I feel for those Irish trainers especially who have been saying that the horses have been waiting for 'the sun on their backs and spring ground' !

[Summer Sun]

Regardless of what UKMO is showing the met office are on board now no doubt about it

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013:

Much colder conditions are expected to develop early next week. Rain, sleet and hill snow in the southeast at first on Monday clearing away with brighter conditions elsewhere spreading south. Snow showers are likely to increasingly affect northern and eastern regions through next week, but all areas are at risk of seeing sleet, hail and snow showers at times. There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places, but there is currently uncertainty regarding which areas are most at risk. There will however, also be some sunshine, particularly further west. Widespread overnight frosts returning with a risk of icy patches. Signals are that it may gradually become slightly less cold by the following week as bands of rain edge eastwards, perhaps preceded by further snow.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Gavin.

[Met4Cast]

Ian fergusson tweeted this a few hours back

Cold is now certain its just the timing which remains uncertain

"Cold" is certain, but that by no means, means that it's going to be a particularly snowy spell. This winter has had quite frequent cold snaps but they've significantly lacked in anything especially snowy for most.

[mulzy]

Good times ahead, looks like potentially record snowfall for March if particularly the GFS verifies, 12-18" of snow quite widespread in eastern parts with the strength of those winds and those uppers.

Things can still go pear shaped but the 6z is definitely a massive upgrade which could paralyse eastern Britain

You related to Yamkin by any chance?

Anyway back to the 6z models - NAVGEM seems more in line with the slower UKMO evolution while NOGAPS is in the GFS/ECM camp.

Edited March 6, 2013 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

Well the latest metoffice update is even more wintry than yesterday with mention of significant and disruptive snowfalls during next week, now that would not tie in with the gfs sinking high, it is much more like the ecm of the last day or so with a prolonged arctic outbreak for the whole of the uk, more like mid winter than early spring.

I would say the meto are expecting the high to head towards greenland with the scandi trough heading southwest and to cover the uk in very arctic conditions.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

"Cold" is certain, but that by no means, means that it's going to be a particularly snowy spell. This winter has had quite frequent cold snaps but they've significantly lacked in anything especially snowy for most.

Well when the met forecast says this

"There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places"

Then I think we have a good shot here. This mornings UKMO was a backtrack and the model tried to form the shortwave shown by the other models. I expect UKMO to be quite similar to the ECM this afternoon. GFS is probably a little too quick.

[Met4Cast]

Well when the met forecast says this

"There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places"

Then I think we have a good shot here. This mornings UKMO was a backtrack and the model tried to form the shortwave shown by the other models. I expect UKMO to be quite similar to the ECM this afternoon. GFS is probably a little too quick.

We've been in this position so many times this winter, and every single time it's gone wrong. I'm just being cautious.

Yes it's going to turn cold, yes I suspect there will be some snow for some. But I think some people on here are jumping the gun a little bit

[Bobd29]

Don't forget Fred we have four days and opportunity to make up any losses with 10 race cards, and 13.30 starts so that should allow for temperatures to get above 0 by around 11 to enable covers to be removed.

Wednesday into Thursday looks interesting with both ECM and GFS picking up the potential for a shortwave to slide SE.

It's not going to be a warm Festival, infact I think we'll be calling it the 'Frigid Festival'. Long johns already packed !!

The key consideration being state of the ground and with Clerk of the Course not watering (and probably prevented from watering from Saturday onwards due to frost covers being in place), should enter the Festival with a mix of good, good to soft in places.

On a more serious note, lots of alcohol and temperatures this low are going to lead to some serious risks to health.

......and what will the ladies wear on Ladies Day????

[Captain Shortwave]

......and what will the ladies wear on Ladies Day????

I'm sure people have made fashionable woolly hats

Edited March 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

......and what will the ladies wear on Ladies Day????

thermals and they won't be short of ice to chill the champagne. Next week could potentially be the most severe weather of the entire season, the meto update is truly arctic, as far as i'm concerned it is the best 6-15 day update of the last 5 months in terms of wintryness.

[offerman]

What are you on about, just went to Metoffice and couldn`t see any arctic warnings??

[nick sussex]

I think we'll know by 72hrs whether its to be a quicker change to colder conditions or a longer wait. The will it or won't it shortwave forming near southern Greenland is really the catalyst for that quicker change as it moves anti clockwise and develops it stretches the troughing near the UK and at the same time draws some energy away from it, the two together help pivot the trough to a more favourable angle to undercut.

So far today the latest available output falls into the following, the NOGAPS has the shortwave, its recent offspring the new NAVGEM doesn't.

The GFS 06hrs run sticks with the shortwave, the latest NAE does develop a shortwave but not as deep, I've just taken a look at the latest GEM regional upto 48hrs which I think is run at a higher resolution than the global that includes the sw Greenland region that also has the shortwave.

If you look past the current shortwave disagreement and look at the big 3, even though the UKMO is dragging its heels its more likely to follow the ECM trend but just delayed, the GFS is trying to plot a route from one block before the Alaskan ridge helps to develop another block.

Overall the NH pattern looks favourable for colder conditions but theres still alot of detail re timings and depth of cold and how long the UK can hold onto those less marginal uppers.

Certainly though its looking very interesting , we just need good agreement tonight and then can start looking more at snow prospects rather than the shortwave near Greenland!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

thermals and they won't be short of ice to chill the champagne. Next week could potentially be the most severe weather of the entire season, the meto update is truly arctic, as far as i'm concerned it is the best 6-15 day update of the last 5 months in terms of wintryness.

I agree with that because even in the cold spell in jan , with all the snow , they were still highlighting some areas may see rain and sleet, and nothing was very cold , cold yes , but ofern marginal snow events.

But this is deep cold , with stronger sun could be fireworks . . .

Edited March 6, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Captain Shortwave]

What are you on about, just went to Metoffice and couldn`t see any arctic warnings??

The update is very cold, there are no warnings as most precipitation will come from showers or disturbances in the flow for which we won't know even 48 hours out.

Hopefully they will have a cold weather warning soon.

[Purga]

Well the latest metoffice update is even more wintry than yesterday with mention of significant and disruptive snowfalls during next week, now that would not tie in with the gfs sinking high, it is much more like the ecm of the last day or so with a prolonged arctic outbreak for the whole of the uk, more like mid winter than early spring.

I would say the meto are expecting the high to head towards greenland with the scandi trough heading southwest and to cover the uk in very arctic conditions.

Yes - I'm much happier now having read that update, that we could be seeing something decent next week. I just hope this extends to the south and is not just a snowfest for the extreme NE / E.

In fact I sincerely hope that all regions get a fair crack of the whip!

Edited March 6, 2013 by Purga

[cold snap]

time of the year and especially all the false dawns this season ,you can understand why this forum is not as busy as it should be with such great modelling on offer.

Whilst we may get the gold this time.its all about how far we can push the pattern west and how stable the greenland blocking can become.central europe dont have to worry about this.they never have to .incredible snow season for them again.

Because off my heart i want be get to excited until we get this into at least 72.remember as people say time and time again the pattern needs to push as further west than possible.

One thing to note the cold thats coming into russia is unreal ,winter drags on and on for some people in the world

[Mair Snaw]

well ive just seen the front page of the star and they have gone with "record warm march for uk"....... lets just hope the express gets wind of this and goes with it on its front page tomorrow, then we can relax knowing that the cold is nailed on.

Edit: sorry it actually says " HOTTEST MARCH EVER"

Edited March 6, 2013 by bigsnow

[cerneman]

......and what will the ladies wear on Ladies Day????

[Radiating Dendrite]

well ive just seen the front page of the star and they have gone with "record warm march for uk"....... lets just hope the express gets wind of this and goes with it on its front page tomorrow, then we can relax knowing that the cold is nailed on.

Is that a joke?

I wonder where they picked up that load of cobblers from!

[Trickster]

Surely with the deep cold uppers and the warmer land due to the stronger sun, this is going to lead to some widespread convection and thus increase the risk of some quite hefty snow showers? Certainly more of a possibility than in January and February?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The 00Z ECM ensembles were colder than the 12Z ensembles. In fact the last set of ECM ensembles are the coldest yet.

Not quite as cold as the GFS though. Will the ECM ensembles continue to grow colder or will the ECM and GFS meet in the middle!!