Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[weather eater]

I really don't think it is a shame weather eater, the arctic is currently much colder than average, the north sea is colder than average, by mid march, inland convection increases rapidly so the showers can develop more widely inland and not just hug the coastlines around the uk. Next week could be one for the books, very special indeed for the time of year, very impressive even by mid winter standards actually. especially considering how severe the latest meto update is, another upgrade since yesterday even.

I agree Karl I just mean it would be great to have seen it in the heart of winter and that we have had to wait so long, certainly next week has the potential to be a real eye opener, which is why I said it should put to bed the notion that March can't deliver on the cold front.

Edited March 6, 2013 by weather eater

[Man With Beard]

I usualy just lurk here and read with interest.I had to come out of the shadows on this one

I have often sat back quitely and considered the UKMO model as the one we always need on side for great winter synoptics from a cold/snow perspective,inside the reliable timeframe.

Generally this has been the case down the years,therefore i am stunned tonight that it has lurched toward the GFS solution at 72hrs!

Some sort of record surely? Thats the model that has been a laughing stock at times this winter with good reason.

Are we looking at a classic case of differant models modrlling differant parts better than others? Has the Gfs modeled things to our NW better in the past? ECM better at trends to our East.....

If anyone keeps a record it would be interesting.

IIRC, the UKMO also made a mess of the Dec 2012 that never was, it held onto the easterly for at least a day after the others dropped it. I think the models have all had horrible moments this winter. Though I don't recall the ECM being wrong inside T120 that often

[chris55]

Some quite incredible output continues today, a direct hit of very cold uppers from the east!! Not often you see consistent charts like this at 120 with excellent ens support. Amazing. Really looking forward to see what transpires at the surface if these kind of charts verify.,

Edited March 6, 2013 by chris55

[Captain Shortwave]

The control run has a second push of cold later on towards t180, this brings another surge of cold air as cold as the first one from the north east with a shortwave moving south west through the low countries into France. Ensembles support a double dip cold spell.

[MR EXTREMES]

gem is a beaut aswell

and it screams reload in fi.

[MR EXTREMES]

gem is a beaut aswell

and it screams reload in fi.

even the jma wants to play which is held in high regards by the uk met so what is the ukmo model on

[Mucka]

Much colder mean on the short GFS 12z ensembles after the mid term with a renewed cold push.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=251&ext=1&y=39&run=12&runpara=0

[MR EXTREMES]

even the jma wants to play which is held in high regards by the uk met so what is the ukmo model on

and gefs really most models are really going for this double dip cold surge so who knows but all the time we see strong heights over the greenland area which i might add do not shift that easy then reload could well be the outcome intresting week coming up if not more.

[SMU]

To put this upcoming weather into perspective - in the 10-12 years ive been on the forums right back to snowatch- I dont think ive seen a chart like this more than 2 or 3 times-

NEVER in March-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030612/gfs-1-120.png?12

The entire UK under -10c air & all of England under -12-13c air-

Truly remarkable charts ( not quite there yet for varification ) but if the GFS lands like this I would expect over 50% of the UK to have some form of snowcover with the E & NE seeing some deep snow- The gradient across the sea to 850's looks be be around 17c & the heights at the lowest ~ sub 528 DAM- With the sun slightly higher this should deliver deep convection & with such a strong flow the showers will penetrate a long way inland.

What I have noticed tonight from the GFS is a significant move to the ECM type longivity of the cold with now many runs throwing the -14c isotherm back towards the UK at 168- like this chart below-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-0-168.png?12

The mean has dropped off at day 8 again ( 192 ) & staggering as it may sound is nearly back at -10c again -

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-192.png?12

& thats with only 50% of the members shifting west-

All in all a rare march occurance- possibly a once a 50 year event if the extreme charts land-

This is all being forced our way by the Extreme AO pattern & deep westerly gradient across Northern Russia- look!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013030612/gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Monday looks to be the core of the cold with widespread -0c being predicted on the GFS, which could see locally -1c Maxes in heavy snow.

Spectacular GFS tonight, only muted slightly by the underwhelming UKMO which does need to come aboard the good ship snowmageddon before we can fully say the beast is coming!

S

[Captain Shortwave]

I would add the GFS ensembles are quite a bit better than this mornings for the longer term,

Day 10 mean

Edited March 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[-uksnow-]

Much colder mean on the short GFS 12z ensembles after the mid term with a renewed cold push.

http://modeles.meteo...un=12&runpara=0

yes - a lengthened ecm type spell looks to be coming the form horse even through the minor models - fairly remarkable if it all comes off.

Does anyone else after seeing such a low mean temp predicted on the GFS ensembles recently now thing .... "pffft only -11 mean? pathetic, i want colder " ... no? just me? Ok

[bluearmy]

The 12z gefs now have five members which delay the colder uppers into monday. i wonder if ecm will hold firm on monday for this and if this is the beginining of a drift from gfs to ecm ????

[mushymanrob]

1970 (Britweather Years) March.March. Very cold (3.7C CET) overall. The month started with northerly winds. There was a major and unexpected snowfall on the 4th, heavy enough to bring down power lines in Kent. Some parts of Northants. and Beds. reported about 40 cms of snow, with the deepest being nearly 48cm near Northampton. Snow fell heavily for twelve hours across a wide part of the south. In parts of the north southeast (if you see what I mean) and the East Midlands it was the heaviest snowfall since 1947. Near Bedford 36 cms of snow lay after 24 hours of snow. The snow was followed by some low temperatures in a northerly air flow, with -15C recorded. The snow covered lasted for more than a week, in sunshine. I don't remember this at all, although I must have been going to school at the time. I don't remember missing Mr Openshaw's French lessons because I was snowbound, but you never know.

yep heavy snow on the 4th, i went looking for marsh marigolds on the 8th according to my diary, cant do that in snow!

just like to say.... out of all the possibilities, id prefer the gfs to become reality, at least until wednesday! get rid of this wretched cloud, see some extreme weather, then back to spring (that last bit isnt shown on the gfs, its my modification!)

[SMU]

Much colder mean on the short GFS 12z ensembles after the mid term with a renewed cold push.

http://modeles.meteo...un=12&runpara=0

not often you see 100% snow risk in the ensembles at day 5&6

S

[mushymanrob]

The 12z gefs now have five members which delay the colder uppers into monday. i wonder if ecm will hold firm on monday for this and if this is the beginining of a drift from gfs to ecm ????

...or even drift towards the ukmo?...

[sunnijim]

IIRC, the UKMO also made a mess of the Dec 2012 that never was, it held onto the easterly for at least a day after the others dropped it. I think the models have all had horrible moments this winter. Though I don't recall the ECM being wrong inside T120 that often

I have read folk on here saying that the GFS dragged other models kicking and screaming into line in DEcember 2010,now if memory serves the key synoptic area then was again to our North/Northwest.So perhaps my earlier point about models doing better in FI picking out trends in certain areass might be valid? Edited March 6, 2013 by sunnijim

[Cloud 10]

Well, after catching up with the latest runs,i'm not sure what to say!

Going to have to start wearing one of these pretty soon when viewing the models.!

[Frosty.]

...or even drift towards the ukmo?...

Lots of snow drifts next week if the gfs 12z verifies, reloads from the northeast, it has moved more towards the ecm. Hopefully another solid ecm run with a sustained arctic blast will do nicely.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[chris55]

To put this upcoming weather into perspective - in the 10-12 years ive been on the forums right back to snowatch- I dont think ive seen a chart like this more than 2 or 3 times-

NEVER in March-

http://modeles.meteo...fs-1-120.png?12

The entire UK under -10c air & all of England under -12-13c air-

Truly remarkable charts ( not quite there yet for varification ) but if the GFS lands like this I would expect over 50% of the UK to have some form of snowcover with the E & NE seeing some deep snow- The gradient across the sea to 850's looks be be around 17c & the heights at the lowest ~ sub 528 DAM- With the sun slightly higher this should deliver deep convection & with such a strong flow the showers will penetrate a long way inland.

What I have noticed tonight from the GFS is a significant move to the ECM type longivity of the cold with now many runs throwing the -14c isotherm back towards the UK at 168- like this chart below-

http://modeles.meteo...17-0-168.png?12

The mean has dropped off at day 8 again ( 192 ) & staggering as it may sound is nearly back at -10c again -

http://modeles.meteo...21-0-192.png?12

& thats with only 50% of the members shifting west-

All in all a rare march occurance- possibly a once a 50 year event if the extreme charts land-

This is all being forced our way by the Extreme AO pattern & deep westerly gradient across Northern Russia- look!

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-168.png?12

Monday looks to be the core of the cold with widespread -0c being predicted on the GFS, which could see locally -1c Maxes in heavy snow.

Spectacular GFS tonight, only muted slightly by the underwhelming UKMO which does need to come aboard the good ship snowmageddon before we can fully say the beast is coming!

S

Great post Steve, and really does highlight the rareness of such synoptics, especially in March. One for the history books if things do verify as shown on the GFS. Also, with it being March, it is easy to think such a set up may just be a watered down version of what we "could" have seen if this was earlier in the winter, however with such deep cold I not sure the lateness of the season makes to much difference, and if anything increases the risk of convection. Exciting model watching thats for sure.

[snowking]

The control run has a second push of cold later on towards t180, this brings another surge of cold air as cold as the first one from the north east with a shortwave moving south west through the low countries into France. Ensembles support a double dip cold spell.

GFS ensemble mean heights have been promoting this for the last 24-36 hours now too with the day 11-15 period offering another Atlantic v Scandi trough battle - with the cyclonic NEly (ie the Scandi trough) being the favoured outcome (even in the face of GEM disagreeing this morning, the NAEFS bias corrected output supported the GFS view of things into the day 11-15 period)

The second period, however, looks less severe that the potential first one

Interesting times ahead

SK

[AWD]

Definetly not suggestive of a brief colder spell;

A good cluster, including the control run, remaining cold for a lengthy period of time.

[Mucka]

Definetly not suggestive of a brief colder spell;

A good cluster, including the control run, remaining cold for a lengthy period of time.

That is an exceptionally cold mean for a period of 5 days or so for any month let alone March. Let's hope it comes off.

UKMO still a fly in the ointment but I expect that will be dismissed after another ECM this evening.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

I have read folk on here saying that the GFS dragged other models kicking and screaming into line in DEcember 2010,now if memory serves the key synoptic area then was again to our North/Northwest.So perhaps my earlier point about models doing better in FI picking out trends in certain areass might be valid?

they are wrong - it didnt. there are archive charts for you to look at to check.

the remainder of the gem 12z run post day 6 drops a depression just to our east and eventually the high sinks across us by day 10 with thicknesses around 520 dam. brrrr.

[cold snap]

poor ukmo dragging its heels even more than its 0z if its snow your after.

Gfs solution is a nice and clean evolution for a change .but until we see a little bit more agreement.i wouldnt pull out the sledge yet.

[mushymanrob]

I have read folk on here saying that the GFS dragged other models kicking and screaming into line in DEcember 2010,

the gfs picked up on the breakdown of the cold in dec 10, it was insistant for several runs over two days before the ecm and ukmo conceeded.