South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[Mapantz]

Gonna drive down to Sandbanks beach on Monday morning and watch it snowing out in the channel.

Go the whole hog and hire a boat to head out in to the channel. :lol:

[Beast of Plympton]

Having spent the last few years riding the Netweather rollercoaster I feel qualified to say that this is a channel low, yes? Therefore no one knows what's going to happen and no amount of forecasting/chart watching and wringing of hands is going to change this. Exeter could get blasted and Taunton could see nothing, conversely Southampton could get a pasting and Somerset could end up with rain and murk.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

No correction necessary.... I am going to drive you, Miss Daisy, into to the land of reason where you belong!! Well said!!

[karlos1983]

Spot on

Providing no further shift south tomorrow, it's a case of check your radar ad enjoy the ride

Go the whole hog and hire a boat to head out in to the channel. :lol:

I'll go halves?

[Argyle1980]

Having spent the last few years riding the Netweather rollercoaster I feel qualified to say that this is a channel low, yes? Therefore no one knows what's going to happen and no amount of forecasting/chart watching and wringing of hands is going to change this. Exeter could get blasted and Taunton could see nothing, conversely Southampton could get a pasting and Somerset could end up with rain and murk.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

bang on the money ! Just have to wait and see.

[dancing daisy]

Spot on

No correction necessary.... I am going to drive you, Miss Daisy, into to the land of reason where you belong!! Well said!!

bang on the money ! Just have to wait and see.

Every now and then I like to pull a sensible post out of the bag.

Edited March 9, 2013 by dancing daisy

[Sussex Jules]

On just the odd occasion, these threads can go astray, although thankfully these are rare events, however tonight is reminiscent of the following event, captured on video. Take note, this situation may well develop near you over the coming 24 to 36 hours should the fun NOT materialise. *fun* being used as a broadly loose term for those wanting a final wintry fling before the season is over.

Lol GTLTW I dare ya to post that in the MOD thread

[Frosty_wsm]

Dont forget to take a pasty with you.

Not likely, I only like the proper cornish pasties from my favourite bakery in st ives and it's a tad far to drive down there just to get one lol

[karlos1983]

Something like the snow falling at Norwich on MOTD would be good, all night and all day please

[kent]

Lol GTLTW I dare ya to post that in the MOD thread

I posted something similar in the MOD thread a couple of years ago. Unfortunately part of the text was in capital letters. Shortly after I received a private text from one of the senior mods telling me not to post in capital letters as it could be construed as shouting lol. REMINDED ME OF A PUBLIC LIBRARY.

[cornish snow]

Not likely, I only like the proper cornish pasties from my favourite bakery in st ives and it's a tad far to drive down there just to get one lol

Seagulls dont mind ginsters.

[dancing daisy]

Seagulls dont mind ginsters.

Bloody sea rats will eat anything. A few years ago I was chomping away on a Captain Jaspers after a day on the lash with the girlies and one just swooped down and ripped it straight from my hand. Never got over that!

[cornish snow]

Bloody sea rats will eat anything. A few years ago I was chomping away on a Captain Jaspers after a day on the lash with the girlies and one just swooped down and ripped it straight from my hand. Never got over that!

Captain jaspers,now that takes me back(about22years).

Those were the days

[Argyle1980]

Bloody sea rats will eat anything. A few years ago I was chomping away on a Captain Jaspers after a day on the lash with the girlies and one just swooped down and ripped it straight from my hand. Never got over that!

they are a pest , happening all the time now in Truro.

[TwisterGirl81]

For just this once can Mother Nature give Exeter some decent settling snow, for the love of god! Lol

How many downgrades can one place get, this could have been epic!

It's amazing how quickly the weather changes because I've had to turn the heating off numerous times this week for to the spring like weather and tonight I even had a window open and I feel the cold like no ones business.

I can't believe how cold it'll be tomorrow evening and beginning of the week, I just hope that low moves north a little!!

[Ashme]

anyone here know how good 'Metox' site is??? been showing good snow potential for us since last Wednesday and although a slight move South still showing snow for us Monday

[TwisterGirl81]

The Weather channel is still showing 5 inches for Exeter

Edited March 10, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[TropicThunder]

Something like the snow falling at Norwich on MOTD would be good, all night and all day please

Got back from this game just over an hour ago and certainly wasn't expecting that! Was horrible cold rain when we arrived in Norwich but it slowly turned more and more to snow and eventually started settling. The drive back along the A11 was treacherous with several cm's on the ground and driving snow in the pitch black, the roads were very slush and slippery. Yet soon after getting out of Norfolk it turned all calm and clear.

They will wake up to a nice wintry scene in the morning, hopefully we have our own event in 24-36 hours time!

[George]

Back in game? Bank

Still hoping for a northward shift tomorrow and I have faith!

Edited March 10, 2013 by George

[Costa Del Fal]

Really looking unlikely for anything more than than a few flurries on the southern mainland now. However the Channel Islands look likely for significant snow. A weather warning likely on my website tomorrow.

Hopefully those who thought I was reacting to just one run earlier when I updated the watch will see thats not the case!!!

Edited March 10, 2013 by Blizzards

[DartmoorSnow]

( Roger J Smith just posted this in the main thread !! UPGRADE ALERT checking out the latest updated charts aswell )

I'm going to continue to beat the drum for potential blizzard conditions in south coast counties on Sunday night into Monday, the low is taking what seems to be the ideal track to interact with bitterly cold winds forced to a cyclonic path across the Channel, and the similarity to the Jan 1881 historic blizzard set-up is noteworthy.

I have the feeling that some are underestimating the potential of this dynamic situation. You have extremely cold uppers racing south and meeting this Atlantic moisture head-on. Temperatures are still 8-10 C all across the Channel region and can't be suppressed all that much before the storm sets in. My prediction is that a severe snowstorm will develop rapidly across most of southern England on Sunday night and some amounts will be large with this, not just on the bleakest part of Dartmoor either. Yes, a sharp northern cutoff somewhere around or south of the M-4 with other unrelated areas of heavy snow from the North Sea inland.

Not much time to wait now. This is coming, you won't get these very cold uppers in play without a big snowstorm. Channel Islands will be included eventually, may start as rain or sleet with thunderstorms then change over to snow. IOW may actually jackpot in this set-up although inland Dorset to east Devon looks favoured also. And I think at present the chances are greater than 50-50 that this would spread into at least the southern half of greater London and most of Kent-Surrey-Sussex, however, there will be a sharp northerly cut-off and north London may see much less.

[That ECM]

( Roger J Smith just posted this in the main thread !! UPGRADE ALERT checking out the latest updated charts aswell )

I'm going to continue to beat the drum for potential blizzard conditions in south coast counties on Sunday night into Monday, the low is taking what seems to be the ideal track to interact with bitterly cold winds forced to a cyclonic path across the Channel, and the similarity to the Jan 1881 historic blizzard set-up is noteworthy.

I have the feeling that some are underestimating the potential of this dynamic situation. You have extremely cold uppers racing south and meeting this Atlantic moisture head-on. Temperatures are still 8-10 C all across the Channel region and can't be suppressed all that much before the storm sets in. My prediction is that a severe snowstorm will develop rapidly across most of southern England on Sunday night and some amounts will be large with this, not just on the bleakest part of Dartmoor either. Yes, a sharp northern cutoff somewhere around or south of the M-4 with other unrelated areas of heavy snow from the North Sea inland.

Not much time to wait now. This is coming, you won't get these very cold uppers in play without a big snowstorm. Channel Islands will be included eventually, may start as rain or sleet with thunderstorms then change over to snow. IOW may actually jackpot in this set-up although inland Dorset to east Devon looks favoured also. And I think at present the chances are greater than 50-50 that this would spread into at least the southern half of greater London and most of Kent-Surrey-Sussex, however, there will be a sharp northerly cut-off and north London may see much less.

I gave a more reasoned response in the output thread but as I am in here, this is so misleading IMO and is full of false hope to us in this area. There is not one output that is reflective of what he suggest. Channel Islands being the only exception. Clearly a knowledgeable chap but likes a ramp like my mrs likes shoes!!!

Edited March 10, 2013 by That ECM

[Man With Beard]

ECM latest precip totals on south coast back up to 18mm+ for Monday/Tuesday

www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/Portsmouth/langtidsvarsel.html

No experience with how accurate they are but it's the ECM apparently so let's see.

[divadee]

( Roger J Smith just posted this in the main thread !! UPGRADE ALERT checking out the latest updated charts aswell )

I'm going to continue to beat the drum for potential blizzard conditions in south coast counties on Sunday night into Monday, the low is taking what seems to be the ideal track to interact with bitterly cold winds forced to a cyclonic path across the Channel, and the similarity to the Jan 1881 historic blizzard set-up is noteworthy.

I have the feeling that some are underestimating the potential of this dynamic situation. You have extremely cold uppers racing south and meeting this Atlantic moisture head-on. Temperatures are still 8-10 C all across the Channel region and can't be suppressed all that much before the storm sets in. My prediction is that a severe snowstorm will develop rapidly across most of southern England on Sunday night and some amounts will be large with this, not just on the bleakest part of Dartmoor either. Yes, a sharp northern cutoff somewhere around or south of the M-4 with other unrelated areas of heavy snow from the North Sea inland.

Not much time to wait now. This is coming, you won't get these very cold uppers in play without a big snowstorm. Channel Islands will be included eventually, may start as rain or sleet with thunderstorms then change over to snow. IOW may actually jackpot in this set-up although inland Dorset to east Devon looks favoured also. And I think at present the chances are greater than 50-50 that this would spread into at least the southern half of greater London and most of Kent-Surrey-Sussex, however, there will be a sharp northerly cut-off and north London may see much less.

Good morning all. Significantly colder here than yesterday (no surprise).

Why is it always inland dorset :-( please please can we get our snow day here on the coast! Here's hoping.

It's going to be a long day and night!

[AWD]

To hungover to post in more detail so here are the snapshots of the various model runs today;

GFS shows snowfall over the SW and south coast Sunday night into Monday;

The UKMO shows some snowfall along the far south coast and Channel Islands;

The NAE shows similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast. Notice the dark purples in north France, that's the real heavy snow that looks like missing us now. Could have been truly something if that hit us;

The GEM similiar to the GFS in that it pushes it that bit further north;

The ECM has it similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast, although perhaps something a little heavier nudging into the extreme south coast;

So overall nothing much as really changed from my post yesterday. The American models more bullish than the Euro's over how far north the system gets. As per yesterday however, you have to favour the Euro's currently with their higher resolution, so only the far south looks like seeing snowfall still currently, something more notable perhaps for the Channel Islands.

I agree with Ian and the poster above, as things stand I give it a 80% - 90% chance of this being a non event, with a 10% - 20% chance of it changing and becoming an event for us.

Edited March 10, 2013 by AWD

[SNOWYLAD]

To hungover to post in more detail so here are the snapshots of the various model runs today;

GFS shows snowfall over the SW and south coast Sunday night into Monday;

The UKMO shows some snowfall along the far south coast and Channel Islands;

The NAE shows similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast. Notice the dark purples in north France, that's the real heavy snow that looks like missing us now. Could have been truly something if that hit us;

The GEM similiar to the GFS in that it pushes it that bit further north;

The ECM has it similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast, although perhaps something a little heavier nudging into the extreme south coast;

So overall nothing much as really changed from my post yesterday. The American models more bullish than the Euro's over how far north the system gets. As per yesterday however, you have to favour the Euro's currently with their higher resolution, so only the far south looks like seeing snowfall still currently, something more notable perhaps for the Channel Islands.

I agree with Ian and the poster above, as things stand I give it a 80% - 90% chance of this being a non event, with a 10% - 20% chance of it changing and becoming an event for us.

Current BBC forecasts back you up 100%, looks good for the Channel Islands and Northern France, but nothing more than a few flurries for the very south....ho hum.