South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[dec10snow]

ECM latest precip totals on south coast back up to 18mm+ for Monday/Tuesday

www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/Portsmouth/langtidsvarsel.html

No experience with how accurate they are but it's the ECM apparently so let's see.

They usually go overboard on the low temperatures if that makes sense! I think they quite often also overdo the precip amounts! Hope this will help

[TropicThunder]

GFS brings it back and again the NAVGEM which has stuck with the snow throughout hasnt shifted and brings between 5-15cm widely across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Sussex and Kent. Areas all to watch.

Is there a mysterious dry spot over Hampshire?!

This will be a real nailbiter. We are so close to something epic yet could miss out altogether! Think it just comes down to radar watching now.

[BARRY]

NAE snow accumulation for end of play Monday show only Torbay and Dartmoor to receive a covering;

looks good for me bit of NIMBY here but have not had a flake this winter

[dec10snow]

Anyone fancy a sandwich?!

[offerman]

Safe to say, no snow up in in frome, 47 miles away from the southampton coast :-(

Dec, with no filling....

[Mark Parsons]

I think I will just be grateful for a couple of cms anything more will be a bonus but I will be gutted if there is a blizzard just off the coast though,would'nt that take the p***!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well , the NAE and GFS have Heavy Snow between 6pm and 6am over the North of our area , Somerset , Cardiff even Bristol all covered . Most of the SW should at least see some Snow falling between now and tomorrow morning . Tomorrow the lows track currently looks like the yellow warning area is about correct.

[AWD]

Anyone fancy a midnight stroll in the country Monday night?

Some exceptionally cold temperature values for March there, with an added issue of windchill which will exasperate matters further.

Well , the NAE and GFS have Heavy Snow between 6pm and 6am over the North of our area , Somerset , Cardiff even Bristol all covered . Most of the SW should at least see some Snow falling between now and tomorrow morning . Tomorrow the lows track currently looks like the yellow warning area is about correct.

That's not heavy snow mate. That's snow flurries at best.

Omm - 1mm falling.

[BARRY]

there are some serious temps there

[snowmadchrisuk]

Anyone fancy a midnight stroll in the country Monday night?

Some exceptionally cold temperature values for March there, with an added issue of windchill which will exasperate matters further.

That's not heavy snow mate. That's snow flurries at best.

Omm - 1mm falling.

Yeah but the I have a feeling the collision of the 2 air masses meeting might cause some explosive precipitation ... Take the GFS chart for 6am in the morning ... See the Darker purples over Somerset /S Wales .

[Hurricane Buckley]

GFS pushes Further North!

[AWD]

Yeah but the I have a feeling the collision of the 2 air masses meeting might cause some explosive precipitation ... Take the GFS chart for 6am in the morning ... See the Darker purples over Somerset /S Wales .

Yes, the GFS does show some heavier PPN across Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Somerset but unfortunetly this isn't yet supported by the NAE or Euro models.

It is however, a similiar evolution to the NMM so hopefully its onto something and tonight's 12z output move towards this scenario.

[cerneman]

3.4c this morning with drizzle blowing in strong wind, Been down by the river and already the windchill is uncomfortable, just happy to get home out of the chill.

Yesterday was early spring, today already feels back to mid winter, Every winter I tell myself that living 8 miles from coast is far enough away for some snow,

Today telling myself 8 miles might be close enough to coast to get some overnight snow from the low in channel,

[Man With Beard]

Heavier snow back into the south on GFS 06Z

[dec10snow]

For any of you Isle of Wightee's, this will hopefully bring some joy to you!

"@PORTSMOUTHFCLEE: @fergieweather hi ian do you think the Isle of Wight will see some snow?" V likely tomorrow, yes.

[jessandjon]

Would it settle after all this drizzle??

[A.J]

yes, a definite shift north and east on this mornings 06z GFS in the short term....LP center tracking 50 miles or so further north having a knock on effect on the ppn shield.....not taking any real interest in the GFS ppn type charts as they're pretty unreliable, but the ppn intensity chart has ppn further north and north east and at this short time scale they're worth paying more attention to than I'd normally give them...Expect a few more variances as the day progresses and other model runs come out, but I've an increasingly larger hunch that some might now be caught by surprise by the snowfall spread....This hunch isn't really based on current model output, rather just a feeling I have

[AWD]

Heavier snow back into the south on GFS 06Z

Yes, the 06z GFS showing what could happen if the low tracks further north;

Some particularly heavy snowfall around the Southampton/Portsmouth area and over the Isle of Wight for a time there.

[divadee]

Yes, the 06z GFS showing what could happen if the low tracks further north;

Some particularly heavy snowfall around the Southampton/Portsmouth area and over the Isle of Wight for a time there.

Good to see bournemouth right in the mix there as well! Got to keep everything crossed here for tonight/tomorrow.

[AWD]

Some respectable PPN totals there by end of day Monday along the south coast;

Although how much will actually settled will be dependant on intensity and any sun influence as well as ground temperatures. Its probably not going to be as straight forward as 1mm of PPN = 1cm of snow in this instance as some will no doubt melt on impact.

[Polar Bear]

Removed the shovel from the van yesterday thinking i wont need that anymore this winter........so somethings bound to happen now.

Suggest you don't put it back in the van either.

[Andy hoyland]

Hey guys, sorry for the IMBYism but what do you think the chances are in relation to heavy snow tonight and tomorrow for us in 'snow shield' Poole?

[jessandjon]

Mum doesn't believe me so going to put her on this website in a minute!!!!!

[AWD]

Hey guys, sorry for the IMBYism but what do you think the chances are in relation to heavy snow tonight and tomorrow for us in 'snow shield' Poole?

Looking good for some snowfall. How heavy and how much settles is too difficult to answer currently.

[cerneman]

Happy Mothers day to all the Moms, Hope you get spoiled today........ And lets hope Mother nature will spoil some of us in our region,,,,,