Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 09/03/13 18z ----->

[Snowy White]

What's the situation looking like for our region on Friday? Snow to rain, or will be looking at significant accumulations? :-)

[LeeSnowFan]

Well metoffice still going with persistant snow for my area

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Frosty start on Thursday with light winds. From late Thursday through to Saturday becoming windy. Cold. Scattered snow showers at first, then spells of more persistent snow from Friday.

Issued at: 0400 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

[Craigers]

Look at my post above

[LeeSnowFan]

Adam, HC - thoughts on thursday night into friday for our region and which locations could do quite well?

[Craigers]

Adam, HC - thoughts on thursday night into friday for our region and which locations could do quite well?

Yorkshire could do very well IF its all snow and stalls over yorkshire then gets pushed southwards by the block again

[Harsh Climate]

Adam, HC - thoughts on thursday night into friday for our region and which locations could do quite well?

At the moment I think we would all at very least see a transient period of snow before turning back to rain on friday. But if the ECM is to be believed it would stay as snow and we could see quite a lot. Probably northern parts of our region at highest risk (obviously away from the coast.)

I think the ECM will water down a bit nearer the time and the gfs will come back on board a little, the end result being southern scotland/northernmost parts of england get all the snow. But just too early to say for sure just yet

[LeeSnowFan]

Ok so someone putting a quote from john hammond in model thread

"John hammond on the bbc forecast for friday quote " blizzards from parts of the midlands northwards""

But forgive me if I am being thick! I probably am, when they say midlands northwards, does that include us lovely people in yorkshire? lol feel such a doosh lol

[Harsh Climate]

lol yes

[LeeSnowFan]

lol yes

hahah I will let you laugh at me lol I asked for that!

geography was never my best subject at school!

[LeeSnowFan]

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

[tayzi]

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

Yes I was listening to Dearne fm this morning they said snow expected tonight causing possible disruption in the morning !!

[Adam lufc]

Hmm very interesting Friday forecast on bbc

[LeeSnowFan]

Well the met office must be confident for friday

Yellow Alert of Snow for Yorkshire & Humber : North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire & West Yorkshire valid from 0005 Fri 22 Mar to 1800 Sat 23 Mar

An area of rain and sleet moving up from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across the higher parts of northern England and much of southern and eastern Scotland away from immediate coastal areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in many inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the likelihood of strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for some upland areas in particular, and it is possible that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber.

not often ive seen a warning issued 3 days before

Edited March 19, 2013 by LeeSnowFan

[Harsh Climate]

Yes looks good lee, I've been trying to explain to that chap who looks like 'McLovin' in the model thread

[Dancerwithwings]

Ok so someone putting a quote from john hammond in model thread

"John hammond on the bbc forecast for friday quote " blizzards from parts of the midlands northwards""

But forgive me if I am being thick! I probably am, when they say midlands northwards, does that include us lovely people in yorkshire? lol feel such a doosh lol

YES that does in my eyes (include you lovely people in yorkshire that is) the 06Z brings the colder air around a 100 miles further south, for us in the midlands

we have better chance of seeing snow but for you guys and girls up there because of the cold air being further south by the time it reaches you it will last longer and

maybe even stall and john hammond seems to confirm this.

[LeeSnowFan]

Yes looks good lee, I've been trying to explain to that chap who looks like 'McLovin' in the model thread

Ive noticed lol but you can't educate some folk.

You are very good on your forecasts! shame people don't take notice as much.

but you should mention my area more often lol

YES that does in my eyes (include you lovely people in yorkshire that is) the 06Z brings the colder air around a 100 miles further south, for us in the midlands

we have better chance of seeing snow but for you guys and girls up there because of the cold air being further south by the time it reaches you it will last longer and

maybe even stall and john hammond seems to confirm this.

Metoffice seem to be going with what you are saying as well 10cm for many inland areas and more on higher ground and they even mention eventually upgradng to amber warning! so they have strong confidence unless something goes badly wrong in the next 24-48 hours friday is gonna be a good day for yorkshire

Liking this comment from the model thread

even ecm raw data from the 00z run has the snowline for the onset of 'proper snow' around south yorks. it will take quite a correction to give settling snow south of the midlands. not impossible at T72 but quite a pendulum swing required. this info from the norwegian webiste.

Edited March 19, 2013 by LeeSnowFan

[Harsh Climate]

Ive noticed lol but you can't educate some folk.

You are very good on your forecasts! shame people don't take notice as much.

but you should mention my area more often lol

Metoffice seem to be going with what you are saying as well 10cm for many inland areas and more on higher ground and they even mention eventually upgradng to amber warning! so they have strong confidence unless something goes badly wrong in the next 24-48 hours friday is gonna be a good day for yorkshire

Thanks Lee, sometimes it's just down to common sense rather than what some data might be pointing at at that current time.

I would love to have your area at highest risk mate ; ) but I still think it might be a bit further north than yorkshire. A few more subtle backtracks from the gfs/ukmo could very easily put us in highest risk though!

[Adam lufc]

Bbc forecast good but met office not so. That to me looks like Pennines only n northwards! Must see colder air move south in tonight's charts!!

[Aaron]

NAE has picked up on that small feature now, but I'm on mobile and on my belated lunch break so I'm not going to post it! Warnings have been released too I see.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Aaron

[Craigers]

Wow snow tonight then a big fall on Friday. there's a risk that it could be more for lower levels 50-150m if cold is under estimated!

[LeeSnowFan]

Wow snow tonight then a big fall on Friday. there's a risk that it could be more for lower levels 50-150m if cold is under estimated!

Taster tonight before the big event friday, or shall we say "potential big event"

[Harsh Climate]

Taster tonight before the big event friday, or shall we say "potential big event"

There seems to be a bit of activity picking up on the radar, hopefully we might see something before the main band from the south east.

[Harsh Climate]

12z NAE looks better for tonight

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey,i here there is snow forecast for tonight,just been in the mod thread for about an hour and no mention of this at all,they are all bickering over fridays potential lol!

no disrespect HC

looking forward to these two wintry spells,if fri comes off that is,but looking good at the mo.

12z NAE looks better for tonight

bank,as they say lol!

Off for now,got to get my base down for shead while it's dry

ta ta.

[Love Snow]

Looking good now for the snow potential tonight still can't believe the amount of snow what's fallen in Leeds this year