Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 09/03/13 18z ----->

[Cheese Rice]

I'll make a call, I wouldn't be at all surprised if those of us that have seen/are seeing snow will see more today than we will on Friday/Saturday

Yep, looks like it may skirt us with any real intensity pushing too far west of here.

Too early to know for sure though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, that's always the risk for snow lovers in these situations with the toning up of the cold blocks- the frontal belt might struggle to reach this area. Earlier in the season it may not be an issue as we'd be better-placed to get snow showers off the North Sea, but as we head into spring we increasingly need a "northerly" source in order to get snow showers off an easterly.

Pretty marginal out there this morning- I travelled through Garforth, York and Thirsk this morning and there was about 2cm of lying snow at Garforth, a rain/sleet mix around York, while around Thirsk there is wet snow which is failing to settle.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Really? based on what?

Based on current output, last 36 hrs trend, and numerous previous similar set-ups

[Machu Picchu]

Picchachu how high up are u in metres?

HaHa, roughly 230m

[Thundery wintry showers]

A large part of me would like the warm weather to hold off until the beginning of April to give us a shot at a sub-1996 March CET, but the current model outputs are otherwise hardly thrilling me- it looks bitterly cold, grey and not very snowy out to T+168, unless the GFS is placing the frontal system for Friday too far south and west.

The skew-t chart for Hull for T+96 tells us what we need to know about the upcoming easterly:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/tempskew/skew0.10305192608303.png

The "dry lid" starting at the 850hPa level, combined with a fair amount of instability in the 850-1000hPa zone (sea temperatures of around +5, 850hPa temperatures of around -10) should result in extensive stratocumulus trapped underneath the cap.

There are hints of brighter weather at around T+168 thanks to a ridge of high pressure or northerly type but that's quite a long time to wait for sunshine.

[Cheese Rice]

It's now raining here just like the other day when there was a covering then it turned to rain...

Edited March 20, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

A large part of me would like the warm weather to hold off until the beginning of April to give us a shot at a sub-1996 March CET, but the current model outputs are otherwise hardly thrilling me- it looks bitterly cold, grey and not very snowy out to T+168, unless the GFS is placing the frontal system for Friday too far south and west.

The skew-t chart for Hull for T+96 tells us what we need to know about the upcoming easterly:

http://nwstatic.co.u...05192608303.png

The "dry lid" starting at the 850hPa level, combined with a fair amount of instability in the 850-1000hPa zone (sea temperatures of around +5, 850hPa temperatures of around -10) should result in extensive stratocumulus trapped underneath the cap.

There are hints of brighter weather at around T+168 thanks to a ridge of high pressure or northerly type but that's quite a long time to wait for sunshine.

Agreed, coming into the second half of March the prospect of a cold gloomy period does not fill me with any enthusiasm. March can be great for real variations, (pleasant warmth, snowy cold, convective activity etc), but none of that seems to be on the cards at present.

[Matty M]

A large part of me would like the warm weather to hold off until the beginning of April to give us a shot at a sub-1996 March CET, but the current model outputs are otherwise hardly thrilling me- it looks bitterly cold, grey and not very snowy out to T+168, unless the GFS is placing the frontal system for Friday too far south and west.

The skew-t chart for Hull for T+96 tells us what we need to know about the upcoming easterly:

http://nwstatic.co.u...05192608303.png

The "dry lid" starting at the 850hPa level, combined with a fair amount of instability in the 850-1000hPa zone (sea temperatures of around +5, 850hPa temperatures of around -10) should result in extensive stratocumulus trapped underneath the cap.

There are hints of brighter weather at around T+168 thanks to a ridge of high pressure or northerly type but that's quite a long time to wait for sunshine.

Would i be wrong in my thoughts that the ECM as in the 144hr chart appears to have potential for more than just a stratocumulus cap?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Probably not at T+144 as we still keep a dry continental feed- perhaps some scattered light flurries but that's all. At T+168 it would almost certainly be a different story because by then we pick up a northerly with falling heights and temperatures at the 500hPa level.

Edited March 20, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Love Snow]

@metofficestorms: UK weather warnings will be updated later this morning with warning areas for snow on Fri/Sat likely to be shifted south and west

[Adam lufc]

Well latest nae looks pretty good to me

[Adam lufc]

But I tell you what! That will be bloody typical if at first it was too far north and then it be too far south!!

[Bradowl]

But I tell you what! That will be bloody typical if at first it was too far north and then it be too far south!!

So will probably end up somewhere in middle.

[Harsh Climate]

Latest GFS has it further north again

[Adam lufc]

Latest GFS has it further north again

Wooooooooowooooooooooooo yeeeee baby

[LeeSnowFan]

Well i'll be happy if it reaches here and also to you lovely people in leeds! but pleaseee let me get some first lol!!

[Winter Cold]

Can we get a direct hit on Friday/Saturday?? Us snow lovers must all now cross our fingers and keep them that way until then haha!

Good thing is its only 48 hours away or so now so youd hope that nothing disastrous can happen now to spoil it!

Am i right in thinking the models are showing it snowing all day friday and even into saturday? Think the GFS 6z has just shown this on model thread anyway. Shourly we'd all get deep snow if that happens!

[Harsh Climate]

Can we get a direct hit on Friday/Saturday?? Us snow lovers must all now cross our fingers and keep them that way until then haha!

Good thing is its only 48 hours away or so now so youd hope that nothing disastrous can happen now to spoil it!

Am i right in thinking the models are showing it snowing all day friday and even into saturday? Think the GFS 6z has just shown this on model thread anyway. Shourly we'd all get deep snow if that happens!

It's looking like that but I don't think we can afford the models to show it any further south, If things are looking the same this time tommorow we will be nearly there

And some places look like they could see at least 24 hours of heavy snowfall

On the latest GFS Barnsley/Sheffield are very close to the sweet spot, a tad further north and I would bank

[LeeSnowFan]

It's looking like that but I don't think we can afford the models to show it any further south, If things are looking the same this time tommorow we will be nearly there

And some places look like they could see at least 24 hours of heavy snowfall

On the latest GFS Barnsley/Sheffield are very close to the sweet spot, a tad further north and I would bank

Woop!! : now im getting giddy!!

[Winter Cold]

HC lets hope it does keep far enough north for us all to get in on the act up here and yes tonights model runs will be crucial for us i think and like you say probably in the morning too.

Incidentaly ive just checked the BBC weather site and its showing an ice day on Sunday, max temp 0c!!! Shourly thats staggering for what would be 24th March!

[Adam lufc]

Don't understand why people keeping going on about march. If was April then yes but march is only after feb which is meant to be the coldest month. The only difference is that the sun is stronger and days are longer.

[Adam lufc]

HC lets hope it does keep far enough north for us all to get in on the act up here and yes tonights model runs will be crucial for us i think and like you say probably in the morning too.

Incidentaly ive just checked the BBC weather site and its showing an ice day on Sunday, max temp 0c!!! Shourly thats staggering for what would be 24th March!

But yep it is pretty cool

[Thundery wintry showers]

My assessment of the upcoming spell of weather will of course be very different if the frontal belt ends up over Yorkshire on Friday after all. The GFS 06Z has certainly given us a north-eastward revision but I still have a feeling that it will end up too far south/west.

[LeeSnowFan]

My assessment of the upcoming spell of weather will of course be very different if the frontal belt ends up over Yorkshire on Friday after all. The GFS 06Z has certainly given us a north-eastward revision but I still have a feeling that it will end up too far south/west.

but some area's of yorkshire will see the snow just not all parts further north you are?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on how far north the band gets- I think the GFS 00Z showed only the far SW of Yorkshire being in with a chance whereas the 06Z has the whole region getting a fair amount. The latter stages of the 06Z also hold more of interest IMHO with a colder easterly- cold enough to bring some snow flurries in off the North Sea, and some notably low maxima for late-March, though there is still likely to be a cap on convection resulting in mostly cloudy skies and just light snowfalls.