Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/03/13 21z---->

[JP1972]

Oh for God's sake stop twittering on about your waterworks lads

[NickR]

According to the Met Office satellite images there's quite a pronounced slot of relatively dry conditions heading for the Tyne and Wear area, which stretches a long way out into the North Sea, but it appears to be being squeezed out from the north, so chances are that late this evening and overnight the showery activity will pep up.

Thanks TWS... do you mean that the instability currently N of us will sink S? Any guesstimates as to what time or how decent the convection might be?

[Snowmaggedon]

According to the Met Office satellite images there's quite a pronounced slot of relatively dry conditions heading for the Tyne and Wear area, which stretches a long way out into the North Sea, but it appears to be being squeezed out from the north, so chances are that late this evening and overnight the showery activity will pep up.

What about the Tees Area?

[Snowmaggedon]

White cloud spreading over now, got a feeling the snow is here!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's always difficult to call in these showery situations but the heavier stuff to the north of the dry belt looks likely to hit Tyne and Wear at around 8 or 9pm on the current rate of movement, and Teesside may be hit towards midnight.

[Boro Snow]

temp now down to 1c dp -10.7

[JP1972]

I tell you what, that wind is bloody icy out there today.

I haven't felt a winchill so pronounced for a very long time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A note on convection which I've also posted in a couple of other regional threads:

I've noticed that until today the cap on convection was forecast by GFS to extend down to the 800hPa level, but in reality, over East Lothian it has been firmly restricted to 700hPa upwards:

http://cdn.nwstatic....tLothian-00.png

This is probably why we've seen a lot more convection over eastern Scotland than predicted.

[NickR]

A note on convection which I've also posted in a couple of other regional threads:

I've noticed that until today the cap on convection was forecast by GFS to extend down to the 800hPa level, but in reality, over East Lothian it has been firmly restricted to 700hPa upwards:

http://cdn.nwstatic....tLothian-00.png

This is probably why we've seen a lot more convection over eastern Scotland than predicted.

Likely to stay that way this evening and tonight TWS?

(Also, is the convection forecast to last throughout the night? Or will we end up dry as it sinks further S?)

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the convection will last overnight, and probably won't die away significantly until tomorrow evening. However the showers will be quite scattered and will pass through quickly, so I think there will be significant local variations in snow cover tomorrow morning- some of the prone areas might get 5-10cm, others just a dusting.

[Alex95]

I'm back home, and there's less snow here than in Cumbria - typical!

[Boro Snow]

the north sea is starting to pep up a little

[JP1972]

I'm back home, and there's less snow here than in Cumbria - typical!

There's no snow here at all!!!

Anyway man, be patient

[Freezing-Point]

the north sea is starting to pep up a little

certainly is. Let's hope the trend continues. Looks about 2 hours till it hits the coast.

[Alex95]

The radar looks OK. Not fantastic, but there are enough showers forming to keep my hopes up for tonight

[JP1972]

The radar looks OK. Not fantastic, but there are enough showers forming to keep my hopes up for tonight

Troughs and showers can appear at short notice in these setups can't they?

Not saying that will be the case tonight but hey who knows ...

[Alex95]

The next area of showers is only about an hour away now as the dry slot is sinking south slightly.

Troughs and showers can appear at short notice in these setups can't they?

Not saying that will be the case tonight but hey who knows ...

I always try and predict who will get snow based on the radar, but I'm often wrong for this exact reason. The showers often disappear or form from one radar frame to the next, making them very unpredictable.

[Cloud 10]

Bitterly cold out there tonight,with dewpoints of -10 and lower with a keen wind.

I wonder how peter's chickens are doing?

[Summer Sun]

Light covering outside, there is a few heavy showers out in the north sea but nothing significant as of yet

[gazzac69]

very light hail/snow falling now, however its not melting,

[doggy123]

Radar looks better fellas

[Alex95]

I think the radar was broken - earlier all the precipitation suddenly appeared light, then at 19:30 it became heavier again. If those showers continue to build some of us should wake up to a decent covering tomorrow morning.

I reckon Durham will be the sweet spot tonight based on the current trajectory of those showers.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Alza

[Cloud 10]

The shower's are pepping up again by the looks of the latest radar,so probably a covering

for many areas tonight with temperatures being so low.

Time to see what those Top Gear idiots are up to.

[NickR]

I think the radar was broken - earlier all the precipitation suddenly appeared light, then at 19:30 it became heavier again. If those showers continue to build some of us should wake up to a decent covering tomorrow morning.

I reckon Durham will be the sweet spot tonight based on the current trajectory of those showers.

You're forgetting that I live in Durham and I operate as a snowshield for convective showers.

[peterf]

incomming by the looks of things.