Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Panayiotis]

UKMO looks to be backtracking

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is following GFS at t72 the backtrack is underway

UKMO

GFS

Coldest uppers even relax for Scotland by Saturday

Looking more likely now this cold will finally come to an end later this week about time as far as I'm concerned

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[PolarWarsaw]

End of the week looks like a damp squib away from the far north of England and Central/Eastern Scotland. Bring on April Showers!

[frosty ground]

UKMO is following GFS at t72 the backtrack is underway

UKMO

GFS

Coldest uppers even relax for Scotland by Saturday

Looking more likely now this cold will finally come to an end later this week about time as far as I'm concerned

Spot on the Met Office Model is following the GFS so far........

[Captain Shortwave]

At this point the low can just do one and allow the Azores high to build northwards. That south easterly looks emigration inducing

[Geordiesnow]

Looking more likely now this cold will finally come to an end later this week about time as far as I'm concerned

If the milder air makes further inroads then I would agree with this tbh, it will still be cold and wet for Scotland with snow on the highlands so still below average around here but no doubt a trend towards milder conditions is looking likely with any undercut getting put further and further back.

Despite that, on a widespread scale, I don't really see anything settled or springlike, it should just turn less cold and temperatures looks like returning to normal, at least for a short while.

[Average Joe]

I love it that when someone has the temerity to suggest that the cold air is going to disappear, the cold lovers hit back with, "Yeah, but it's not exactly going to be mild"!!!!!

[Mucka]

Yup big downgrades across the output today so looks as though GFS handled this one better (although it was very poor on modelling the trough initially)

ECM has hugely exaggerated the extent and depth of cold past the mid range this winter and that theme seems to have continued here with the Euros backtracking.

This is as far SW and as deep as the cold pool gets on the GFS 12z which is a long way from what we were seeing modelled a couple of days ago, especially on ECM which had -8c 850' right across the UK for the pretty much the entire period.

UKMO in full reverse too.

Looks like another damp squib and something like the 6th consecutive time my region (South Manchester) has been forecast snow across the output and received nothing.

Scotland and perhaps NE England may see some heavy snow for a time though.

I have actually had no lying snow this Winter and just a little wet snow falling and settling briefly in a slushy mix on grass and cars so probably the most frustrating winter in that regard I can remember, more so than the mild winters with no false hopes of heavy snow continually dashed.

Let's get this muck out of the way if it isn't going to deliver and bring on some warmth.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Mucka

[UV-RAY]

If the models are to believed then instead of cold and snow we will have milder temps and rain, in the short term at least. Still absolutely no sign of any spring warmth in any of the models, no matter how far out you go. Could be a long few months coming up chasing any notable warmth again!

Edited March 18, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[cooling climate]

Quite good agreement between GFS 12z and UKMO 12z at t120 which is not

good news for cold weather fans.

If this varifies then it is another poor performance from the UKMO where

as the GFS was never really in favour of the undercut.

[cold snap]

Are winter fans starting to think about hibernation?

Ukmo model does a complete backtrack,with milder coditions for the weekend.

Could be a sad day for us coldies.bring on spring now i say.

[UV-RAY]

Are winter fans starting to think about hibernation?

Ukmo model does a complete backtrack,with milder coditions for the weekend.

Could be a sad day for us coldies.bring on spring now i say.

No signs of any warm up, at best normal March weather will resume.

[Allseasons-Si]

One straw clutch is the gem @ 144hrs

-8 uppers heading back in from the north east

things are still 4-5 days away so a bit to go yet i'd say.

[Mucka]

Sorry to say GEM is going the same way, this a long way from snowy for most of the UK.

NAVGEM is probably even worse. (For snow prospects)

Edited March 18, 2013 by Mucka

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS 12z is quite wet at the end of the week. Milder in the South, but still a question mark over how quickly / how far North the milder air gets.

Edited March 18, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Harsh Climate]

I think the fat lady has sung her last song of the winter, the ukmo is the final nail in the coffin regarding our chances this weekend. Roll on summer

[Summer Sun]

Well the backtrack is complete from UKMO not surprised by this and its a bit of good news for GFS as it was the first to pick up this trend last night before ECM followed

UKMO and GFS are more a less the same tonight (pressure is different but the flow is virtually identical)

The Azores is starting to come into play again now for Spain which it hasn't done so for a while if that edged up further north in subsequent runs it could in turn force the low north easing the northern blocking and finally allowing pressure to rise over the UK

At this stage Easter Sunday is heading for a mild wash out rather than a cold white out

This could be the begging of the end for the remaining coldies tonight with them getting ready to join the rest in hibernation for the next 7 months or so ukmo is the final nail in the coffin for the short term tonight.

Hopefully now we can look forward to something milder appearing on the models this cold has gone on long enough now I'm at my whits end with it

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[MR EXTREMES]

Are winter fans starting to think about hibernation?

Ukmo model does a complete backtrack,with milder coditions for the weekend.

Could be a sad day for us coldies.bring on spring now i say.

yep as i said last nite it was out of sink with the rest of the models poor output from the ukmo but just goes to show how fickle they are but this dont mean scotland eastern england wont have some fun.

i think were start to see first signs of spring from the ecm tonight gfs is slowly getting there ukmo playing catch up.

[Allseasons-Si]

Come on gang,lets see if the ECM has something to offer,if not,then theres still time for adjustments,i will not throw the towel in until wednesday at the very latest.

[Purga]

Are winter fans starting to think about hibernation?

Ukmo model does a complete backtrack,with milder coditions for the weekend.

Could be a sad day for us coldies.bring on spring now i say.

Never mind the easterlies could be back for April

[MR EXTREMES]

Come on gang,lets see if the ECM has something to offer,if not,then theres still time for adjustments,i will not throw the towel in until wednesday at the very latest.

there was adjustments last night by the gfs and ecm so todays output by the ukmo was pretty scripted to be honest.

i think as others have stated winter is almost gone now spring is nearly here but by no means scoarcher but pretty wet by the looks of things.

[Summer Sun]

Never mind the easterlies could be back for April

Milder (than of late) temperatures showing there

Not a cold set up at all if the high drifted a bit further south east a southerly would develop

Lower heights up north as well which is a good sign for some more spring like temperatures and it gives high pressure more chance to build sending the lows north out the way

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

Mild temperatures showing there

Not a cold set up at all if the high drifted a bit further south east a southerly would develop

Lower heights up north as well which is a good sign for some more spring like temperatures and it gives high pressure more chance to build sending the lows north out the way

I know we haven't had anything mild for a long time but temperatures around 10 degrees don't cut it as mild in late march

Nice to see the seasonal weather acting in reverse, Winter followed by autumn, pfft don't get the one week of summer this year I suppose

[NorthYorkMoorsSnow]

latest met office update.

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Mar 2013 to Monday 1 Apr 2013:

Turning more unsettled for this weekend and next week, with cloudy, wet and windy weather affecting most areas at times, although the far northeast may remain brighter with a few snow showers at first. In central and northern regions of the UK, snow is likely for a time this weekend, with a risk of blizzards in strong easterly winds. Through the last days of March and the beginning of April, it is likely to remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain for most, generally heaviest towards the southwest. Further snow is possible at times in central and northern areas and it will often be windy, especially towards the north and west. Temperatures will tend to remain below average, but perhaps gradually return nearer to normal in southern Britain.

Updated: 1136 on Mon 18 Mar 2013 lets hope there is blizzards this weekend I'm sure there will be tho

[Mark Neal.]

Sorry guys, thought id just put this across, this is not getting at anyone, but why are some people getting excited at warmer uppers coming up in FI, from what i see some of these uppers are associated with very wet weather which many parts could do without, if the azores high ridges and we get a nice high pressure i could probably agree and be getting excited, i don't want another atlantic wet system starting up again and i'm sure many would agree...

As ever i enjoy the mild/cold imby in here as we get different perspectives, but sometimes a little bit of thinking should be done, do we really want heavy rain with milder weather?

That said just looked through the GFS, its not until 2nd april that weather looks to bring high pressure over us, temperatures though struggling to reach 9c in west, 11c in the east, for April we should be seeing better surely? Nothing really to warm the spring warmth lovers, but nothing for those who love snow too get excited about either, boring middleground ( but i'm sure those in the SW would be reasonably satisfied!)

Edited March 18, 2013 by Mark Neal.