Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[weatherguy]

Well, I'll wait until the ECM comes out later and continue to clutch onto these for now...

But it's certainly looking like I saw my last snowfall of the year yesterday with the charts on offer right now - bring on the spanish plumes I say!

[Tim Bland]

Looks like Gavin could be talking to himself for a while. Some were too quick to dismiss the gfs and favour the ukmo... We are entering that boring period where there is no snow but no mild / storms either. Unless there's a sudden turn around I'm signing off for the winter and will see you on the convective thread in the summer

Edited March 18, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Captain Shortwave]

Looked at the GFS ensembles, not one going for mild, on the other hand none going for cold either up to day 8. Guess considering the mildies/coldies arguments it's probably some kind of karma.

Oh well it might be a while before we get some convective activity if we are stuck in a cool/wet South Easterly flow. Might take a break for a while on here until mother nature wakes me from my eternal slumber.

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles are not warm and at the same time not cold probably 7 to maybe 11c would be my guess for the temperature range for the bulk of England and Wales, given the strong ish sun now in any sunny spells it would feel very pleasant

The Aberdeen ensemble isn't looking quite as cold now as it was a few days ago

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM at just 96 hrs out swings back the other way. Better blocking to the N compared to UKMO and its 0z output

At 120 the colder air is much more evident than it was on the 0z

Edited March 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Looks like Gavin could be talking to himself for a while.

I'm use to that lol

Anyway ECM brings in the milder at t96 all in agreement now with this

T120 has a slight difference between ECM and GFS but snow chances are very slim for all but Scotland and maybe the far north of England

00z for the same time not really a great deal of difference

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

I don't believe any of the operational output for the end of this week yet (mild or cold), according to the latest meto update today, there will be blizzards across northern britain this weekend and more snow for central and northern uk next week, so until the meto update changes, i'm keeping hopes alive for a continuation of the cold unsettled weather for the next few weeks with the cold block remaining very close to northeast britain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm use to that lol

Anyway ECM brings in the milder at t96 all in agreement now with this

T120 has a slight difference between ECM and GFS but snow chances are very slim for all but Scotland and maybe the far north of England

00z for the same time not really a great deal of difference

There's a big difference at 120....namely much less energy over Greenland

And there's your difference manifested at 144....-4 to-6 uppers and a bitingly cold wind

Edited March 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Kentspur]

I don't believe any of the operational output for the end of this week yet (mild or cold), according to the latest meto update today, there will be blizzards across northern britain this weekend and more snow for central and northern uk next week, so until the meto update changes, i'm keeping hopes alive for a continuation of the cold unsettled weather for the next few weeks with the cold block remaining very close to northeast britain.

And a case of so close but no cigar for the majority of the population in southern UK

[SLEETY]

so the ecm goes against gfs and ukmo,certainly no downgrade from this model infact more of an upgrade.

Once again people writing off the chances of wintry weather too soon.

The mild weather fans might have to keep low after this,instead of thinking mild weather is returning by the end of the week.

Remember the models dont control the weather.

Expect more changes as the models get to grips with the tricky situation.

Still could go either way

[cooling climate]

Well that looks like game set and match to me and just goes to show

that despite a record tanking -AO and a 1055 high over Svalbard it

does not necessarily mean freezing weather for the UK.

ECM t144 chart and we have a undercut again with the colder uppers

returning but the way the ECM has been flipping around in its latter

output I would tend to ignore it at this stage.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well that looks like game set and match to me and just goes to show

that despite a record tanking -AO and a 1055 high over Svalbard it

does not necessarily mean freezing weather for the UK.

ECM t144 chart and we have a undercut again with the colder uppers

returning but the way the ECM has been flipping around in its latter

output I would tend to ignore it at this stage.

The ECM shows why the weekend and beyond isn't cut and dried....to the less seasoned of members out there the opening frames of the ECM looked much the same as its 0z run but in reality there were small but important nuances in energy distribution. The GFS, UKMO or any other model will not have this sorted yet and the ECM proves this to 144 hrs.

[Summer Sun]

-6 uppers digging in again at t144

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 168 on the 0z we had southerly winds....the 12z wants easterly winds and -6 to -8 uppers

[Summer Sun]

ECM swinging back to cold again the models seem to be struggling to get to grips at the moment for later this week and into next week plenty of twists and turns to come yet before we get a clear picture

[Frosty.]

ECM t144 chart and we have a undercut again with the colder uppers

returning but the way the ECM has been flipping around in its latter

output I would tend to ignore it at this stage.

All the models have been flipping around, today's ukmo 00z v ukmo 12z is a case in point, nothing is resolved yet for the end of the week onwards, it's delicately balanced in my opinion.

[cold snap]

Are winter fans starting to think about hibernation?

Ukmo model does a complete backtrack,with milder coditions for the weekend.

Could be a sad day for us coldies.bring on spring now i say.

[Cloud 10]

The GEM at 144 hrs is similar to the ECM at the same timescale.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All the models have been flipping around, today's ukmo 00z v ukmo 12z is a case in point, nothing is resolved yet for the end of the week onwards, it's delicately balanced in my opinion.

Yeah which is why people quoting 'Game Set and Match' have really got on my wick today. Even the GEFS show a 5 or 6 members which sustain cold throughout. Shows how finely poised this is.

ECM 192...Just gets even colder

Edited March 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

-8 uppers from ECM now quite widely far south west remains the mildest (just with -4 uppers)

Quite a high snow risk for the north on Friday

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[cooling climate]

Looks like the ECM is determined to spoil your party Gavin.

For us coldies its nice to look at but I have little confidence

in it varifing.

[mushymanrob]

No signs of any warm up, at best normal March weather will resume.

no signes of any warm up? normal march IS a warm up!

Never mind the easterlies could be back for April

yep, and do you know what a chart like thatll bring? seen it so many times before, notably april 1974, cool grey stratus dominating the day, burning off from the west, itll be nice IF and WHERE the sun breaks through, charts like that favour northwestern scotland where high temps can be gained.

Sorry guys, thought id just put this across, this is not getting at anyone, but why are some people getting excited at warmer uppers coming up in FI, from what i see some of these uppers are associated with very wet weather which many parts could do without, if the azores high ridges and we get a nice high pressure i could probably agree and be getting excited, i don't want another atlantic wet system starting up again and i'm sure many would agree...

becuase im sick of the cold, i need it to be warmer for business, i like milder weather, not keen on rain but hey ho.

Looks like Gavin could be talking to himself for a while. Some were too quick to dismiss the gfs and favour the ukmo... We are entering that boring period where there is no snow but no mild / storms either. Unless there's a sudden turn around I'm signing off for the winter and will see you on the convective thread in the summer

boring period? BORING PERIOD? mate, you are missing out on some beautiful weather if you only like extremes. spring is a wonderful time.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, the mild air's winning by a country mile in FI:

Up to that point -8C uppers on every frame from central Scotland northwards, with the boundary between milder and colder air shifting back and forth from southern to northern England. One of the colder runs certainly and different in that it disrupts the low but as long as one of the three main models shows something substantially different to the others this won't be settled.

[SLEETY]

bitterly cold weather returning according to the ECM then.

With such contrasts between the models at the moment I would hold fire in trying to predict the weather at all for later in the week.

The met office forecasters have a real nightmare on their hands regarding what is going to fall out of the sky later in the week,and if the bitter winds return afterwards.

[nicknacknoo]

The GEM at 144 hrs is similar to the ECM at the same timescale.

Anyone consider waking the captain 'S' from his slumbers?