Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Zakos]

ECM flips back to cold in yet another drastic turnaround in the model output. a severe blow dealt to the "mildies" although to be honest even I was looking forward to a potential warm-up. If the latest ECM is anything to go by, then winter is most certainly not over yet. temperatures are far below average to our east, certainly cold enough to deliver snow to low levels if that low undercuts favourably.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Zakos

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the ECM is determined to spoil your party Gavin.

For us coldies its nice to look at but I have little confidence

in it varifing.

All it takes is for 18z GFS to go this route and you've got GEM, ECM and GFS going for it.

The UKMO can do what it likes as I very rarely take notice of its later output (unless it backs the ECM, the UKMO and ECM together are usually a sign of good confidence at that timeframe).

Edited March 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends cold

All down to the ensembles now to see if its a cold outlier or not

[Purga]

Splendid ECM for next week

Keep that cold a'comin!!

[Carlrg]

Bingo!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

Edited March 18, 2013 by Carlrg

[Frosty.]

Aye, the mild air's winning by a country mile in FI:

One of the colder runs certainly and different in that it disrupts the low but as long as one of the three main models shows something substantially different to the others this won't be settled.

Yes and my view is the runs showing a bullish change to mild are mild outliers for that period so it's all still to play for. The cold block to the northeast is going to put up a very good fight when that atlantic low forces up against it later this week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

And the best thing? You could see this sort of run coming at 72-96 hours out.

Edited March 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[mushymanrob]

believe the ecm 12z at your peril.... that has consistently been the coldest run, often predicting something reallly extreme, it did just last friday for...tomorrow! pretty much the same set up. it hasnt materialised now, it didnt materialise through the winter (on its extreme runs), it has NO support, so the chances of this ecm becoming reality now are very low.

that doesnt mean though that something like it cant become reality..... as has been said the warm up (back to normal) expected by friday is not done and dusted.... but when all three models showed it, the ensembles supported it, the meto supported it, it is highly likely to happen. its only 4 days away.

All it takes is for 18z GFS to go this route and you've got GEM, ECM and GFS going for it.

The UKMO can do what it likes as I very rarely take notice of its later output (unless it backs the ECM, the UKMO and ECM together are usually a sign of good confidence at that timeframe).

been there before mate only for them to flip back to the milder option.

[Zakos]

The ECM is a fantastic run, but the models are still diverging very early on in their outputs. nothing is set in stone after 72 hours and I cannot see how anyone can think otherwise. The ECM goes very cold early on, not at 240 hours out, so how can it be ignored? clearly it is still a plausable scenario even it is currently odds-against.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Zakos

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes and my view is the runs showing a bullish change to mild are mild outliers for that period so it's all still to play for. The cold block to the northeast is going to put up a very good fight when that atlantic low forces up against it later this week.

The block to the east, funnily enough, is not the key in this scenario.....it is to do with pressure over and around Greenland. Higher pressure earlier on over Greenland means that block to the E doesn't get overwhelmed by the Atlantic and ultimately sink SE.

[Snowman.]

Bingo!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Always think opposite with that model.

Cold looking certain

When it shows cold then we worry.

[mushymanrob]

Yes and my view is the runs showing a bullish change to mild are mild outliers for that period so it's all still to play for. The cold block to the northeast is going to put up a very good fight when that atlantic low forces up against it later this week.

disagree karl... they arent outliers, until this 12z ecm all three models supported the mild option, the ecm 12z is alone in championing a cold solution. if anythings an outlier, its the ecm 12z, and not for the first time in recent weeks.

[Mucka]

ECM ends cold

All down to the ensembles now to see if its a cold outlier or not

Indeed and I believe this has to be one of the coldest runs of its set and maybe the coldest charts we see for the rest 2013 from an Op run. (plausible )

Could be a last hoorah for coldies given the rest of the output through the day but I must admit it was totally unexpected (for me) and we can't rule it out.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Mucka

[Stuie]

believe the ecm 12z at your peril.... that has consistently been the coldest run, often predicting something reallly extreme, it did just last friday for...tomorrow! pretty much the same set up. it hasnt materialised now, it didnt materialise through the winter (on its extreme runs), it has NO support, so the chances of this ecm becoming reality now are very low.

that doesnt mean though that something like it cant become reality..... as has been said the warm up (back to normal) expected by friday is not done and dusted.... but when all three models showed it, the ensembles supported it, the meto supported it, it is highly likely to happen. its only 4 days away.

been there before mate only for them to flip back to the milder option.

Not sure if you are a mild lover or not but in your signature you need an "E" in hight of the sun.

[cooling climate]

Yeah which is why people quoting 'Game Set and Match' have really got on my wick today. Even the GEFS show a 5 or 6 members which sustain cold throughout. Shows how finely poised this is.

ECM 192...Just gets even colder

I have been touting cold if I see it as much as anyone on here but when there is

overwhelming model agreement at t96-t144 then I think game set and match is justified.

Post t144 is still up in the air but the way the ECM has been flip flopping around

I certainly will not be taken in by it this evening.

I would save this run if I were you because I doubt very much it will be

there in the morning.

[Mucka]

And the best thing? You could see this sort of run coming at 72-96 hours out.

Is it the best thing though?

Less room for error certainly but when it is different to all the other models at such short range then you also have to wonder if it's a data issue.

The ensembles will tell us more.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Mucka

[shaky]

Well ecm would probably show a snow event from midlands northwards for a a couple of days!!

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm shows in reality two outcomes one cold the other mild.Given the time of year mild would or even should be favourite ,but given the climatic shift in our weather over the last six years or so , I would not rule out the continuation of cold/snowy weather especially for the northern half of the uk but not exclusively!

[LomondSnowstorm]

believe the ecm 12z at your peril.... that has consistently been the coldest run, often predicting something reallly extreme, it did just last friday for...tomorrow! pretty much the same set up. it hasnt materialised now, it didnt materialise through the winter (on its extreme runs), it has NO support, so the chances of this ecm becoming reality now are very low.

that doesnt mean though that something like it cant become reality..... as has been said the warm up (back to normal) expected by friday is not done and dusted.... but when all three models showed it, the ensembles supported it, the meto supported it, it is highly likely to happen. its only 4 days away.

been there before mate only for them to flip back to the milder option.

That's not quite true, yes in FI some have been more extreme but in February and in March the ECM 12Z were both pretty on the money in terms of the modelling of uppers at least. In fact it slightly underestimated the upper air temperatures for last Monday. Certainly not sure how it could have overplayed the snow potential here for this week so far either, given the ensuing snowmaggedon outside my window and the snowfalls of the last few days in other parts of the British Isles.

Had the GFS generally verified better at these critical junctures it would have been a very different winter with almost no notable cold spell to speak of when in fact there have been many.

[Summer Sun]

Where do you guys check the ECM ensembles at? I use this but are there any more?

[Frosty.]

disagree karl... they arent outliers, until this 12z ecm all three models supported the mild option, the ecm 12z is alone in championing a cold solution. if anythings an outlier, its the ecm 12z, and not for the first time in recent weeks.

It's finely balanced rob, I am not throwing in the towel until the meto signal a change to mild for the whole of the uk, and from memory there was not much if any use of the mild word on today's update. This ecm run has restored some balance to today's topsy turvy output.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is it the best thing though?

Less room for error certainly but when it is different to all the other models at such short range then you also have to wonder if it's a data issue.

The ensembles will tell us more.

Well the GEM (albeit not the most reliable model) offers a decent undercut too and up until the 12z the UKMO went for it. If anything I'd say it just highlights how delicately poised the situation is. At such short range I'd usually favour the ECM but seeing as the ECM was showing a lack of decent undercut on its 0z run, I really don't think any of the NWP can be trusted right now.......regardless of what it's showing.

[That ECM]

Well it's coming, problem is, I don't know if its the cold or mild. More importantly, nor do the models. Interesting to watch. I am calling cold for at least the next seven days. That's more based on the fact that I would like some warmth.

[Ian Brown]

believe the ecm 12z at your peril.... that has consistently been the coldest run, often predicting something reallly extreme, it did just last friday for...tomorrow! pretty much the same set up. it hasnt materialised now, it didnt materialise through the winter (on its extreme runs), it has NO support, so the chances of this ecm becoming reality now are very low.

that doesnt mean though that something like it cant become reality..... as has been said the warm up (back to normal) expected by friday is not done and dusted.... but when all three models showed it, the ensembles supported it, the meto supported it, it is highly likely to happen. its only 4 days away.

been there before mate only for them to flip back to the milder option.

Rob, because of the position of the block I see it as difficult for any milder uppers to be able to sustain, and I think a return to chilly South Easterlies at least is likely.

Don't really see the appeal in the return of heavy rain and floods from the SW, which is what the other option is. The Azores High cannot come into play.

[mushymanrob]

Not sure if you are a mild lover or not but in your signature you need an "E" in hight of the sun.

im primarily a weather lover, but like warmth over cold especially now.

That's not quite true, yes in FI some have been more extreme but in February and in March the ECM 12Z were both pretty on the money in terms of the modelling of uppers at least. In fact it slightly underestimated the upper air temperatures for last Monday. Certainly not sure how it could have overplayed the snow potential here for this week so far either, given the ensuing snowmaggedon outside my window and the snowfalls of the last few days in other parts of the British Isles.

Had the GFS generally verified better at these critical junctures it would have been a very different winter with almost no notable cold spell to speak of when in fact there have been many.

yes the ecm got last monday more or less right, but thats the only extreme one it has, it has consistently portrayed a big freeze to end all big freezes from mid jan onwards. it might be right this time, but given its track record for overblowing the cold, and the fact that atm it has no support, i wouldnt bet on its acuracy!