Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Man With Beard]

Afternoon, still a mixed bag from the models today

NASA model showing something decent for coldies though

Any frontal incursion would bring snow to all except the far southwest.

Pretty close if not a little better than the UKMO output this morning.

However, the flip-side of this chart is no snow northeast of London or Birmingham

[SLEETY]

Yes the gfs has been awful all winter,it was only the last cold spell which it got correct and the ukmo took a long time to pick up on it,Which resulted in record breaking low max temps for parts of the South last Monday and blizzard like conditions for coastal regions.

Before then its been awful for months,yet still the same people swear by it,.

Maybe because it's showing milder weather in it's latest output at the end of the run,and their seem to be a lot of mild bias posters in this forum currently.

Sorry folks but mild is a long way off yet,just keep looking at the FL charts and hope they verify one day

Edited March 18, 2013 by SLEETY

[Eskimo]

However I'm sure if the GFS was showing a cold solution, none of these comments above would have been made.

The NAVGEM is following the UKMO, let's just hope the other models come on board.

[Summer Sun]

The London ensemble is very consistent on the 06z run in staying above the zero line temperatures should at least be around average

The Manchester ensemble is more a less the same

The Aberdeen ensemble remains the cold one again today with temperatures staying below normal and a continued snow risk

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frank Trough]

Yes the gfs has been awful all winter,it was only the last cold spell which it got correct and the ukmo took a long time to pick up on it,Which resulted in record breaking low max temps for parts of the South last Monday and blizzard like conditions for coastal regions.

Before then its been awful for months,yet still the same people swear by it,.

Maybe because it's showing milder weather in it's latest output at the end of the run,and their seem to be a lot of mild bias posters in this forum currently.

Sorry folks but mild is a long way off yet,just keep looking at the FL charts and hope they verify one day

so is the ECM (although nobody is really mentioning that at the moment...NAVGEM is getting thrown about though)

The weekend doesn't look all that cold in he south either. A little above average for the time of the year.

[chris78]

Yes the gfs has been awful all winter,it was only the last cold spell which it got correct and the ukmo took a long time to pick up on it,Which resulted in record breaking low max temps for parts of the South last Monday and blizzard like conditions for coastal regions.

Before then its been awful for months,yet still the same people swear by it,.

Maybe because it's showing milder weather in it's latest output at the end of the run,and their seem to be a lot of mild bias posters in this forum currently.

Sorry folks but mild is a long way off yet,just keep looking at the FL charts and hope they verify one day

....a mild bias..dont be ridiculous!

....why on earth would you post that! but since you did....Id wager ill see mild before you see snow.......

[LomondSnowstorm]

so is the ECM (although nobody is really mentioning that at the moment...NAVGEM is getting thrown about though)

The weekend doesn't look all that cold in he south either. A little above average for the time of the year.

No, stark north-south divide dependent on where the frontal boundary sets up. 1-2C maxima for central Scotland (temperatures in that range today here too) with heavy snow all Friday and Saturday on the 6Z, milder air with rain in the south and southwest. In between the far southwest and the northeast of Scotland, very hard to judge temperatures still at this stage for the weekend.

[bluearmy]

I guess the next couple ukmo runs will reveal a drift towards ecm/gfs for fri/sat. (or will it ?)

i'd say 70/30 it will. a good period to judge the new nasa high res which is sticking with the ukmo version against ecm and gfs

[cooling climate]

Still time to change of course but at the moment it is certainly looking like

the trough to the west will be unfavourably orientated or distrupt to late

to stop the less cold air from encroaching from the southwest across most of

England and Wales later in the week. That is not to say that more southern areas

may still get a second bite of the cherry.

At least there is still plenty of interest to be had in model watching

unlike last year.

[mushymanrob]

mild bias?mildies are outnumbered 20-1on here, the reason milder weather is being talked about is because its mid march and the big two models are showing that in five days time it should be here! the ecm and gfs are consistent and agree that it will happen. and even if it doesnt as currently expected its only a question of time.

the day mild gets talked about with such enthusiasm that cold does by so many will be the most notable day in nw history lol

[mushymanrob]

dont agree cooling climate, all weather watching is interesting :-)

[snowking]

ECM det and control runs very consistent today with an initial front moving only into western areas, this brings snow from Wales northwards (apart from the far S of Wales) across east as far as Oxford.

The colder air is then mixed out and a second frontal system arrives on Saturday, bringing rain south of the midlands, and snow to the north.

Increments both north/south and east/west will make a huge difference here, and plenty more twists and turns still to come I suspect

SK

Edited March 18, 2013 by snowking

[Troubleatmill]

I think March is the worst month of the year weather interest wise (know that goes against a whole heap of others), just my own view that winter is done and 'warm spring' is still at least April away, Psychological im sure, but nothing to get excited about either way right now. Looking for warmth now, and charts like this give me hope of 'warmth', might be me but this winter seems to of lasted forever? maybe cos we didnt get a nice summer last year (unless its rain and grey you like)

Edited March 18, 2013 by tempestas

[Summer Sun]

I think March is the worst month of the year weather interest wise (know that goes against a whole heap of others), just my own view that winter is done and 'warm spring' is still at least April away, Psychological im sure, but nothing to get excited about either way right now. Looking for warmth now, and charts like this give me hope of 'warmth', might be me but this winter seems to of lasted forever? maybe cos we didnt get a nice summer last year (unless its rain and grey you like)

By heck its a long time since those sort of uppers were that close +10c knocking on the door to the south west!

[Tim Bland]

Hardly break out the T shirts & BBQ if we can hit a daytime max of 10C!

Re the end of the week, some people are underestimating the snow potential IMO. lower than -5c uppers are not required due to the easterly flow and low DP etc. The GFS precip type doesnt take into account all the factors so is showing mostly rain. Could be some hefty totals in the chilterns and up towards peak district etc

[Summer Sun]

Hardly break out the T shirts & BBQ if we can hit a daytime max of 10C!

Re the end of the week, some people are underestimating the snow potential IMO. lower than -5c uppers are not required due to the easterly flow and low DP etc. The GFS precip type doesnt take into account all the factors so is showing mostly rain. Could be some hefty totals in the chilterns and up towards peak district etc

That 10c is 6am by early afternoon mid teens more than possible

[Purga]

Still time to change of course but at the moment it is certainly looking like

the trough to the west will be unfavourably orientated or distrupt to late

to stop the less cold air from encroaching from the southwest across most of

England and Wales later in the week. That is not to say that more southern areas

may still get a second bite of the cherry.

At least there is still plenty of interest to be had in model watching

unlike last year.

We hope so and METO haven't discounted it yet - forecast for SE below.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wednesday largely cloudy, with limited sunny intervals, also scattered showers. Thursday generally dry and bright, although still rather cold. Friday frosty start then cloud and rain or snow later.

Updated: 0333 on Mon 18 Mar 2013

Boringly mild today in the south so let's hope it improves later in the week.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Purga

[cooling climate]

dont agree cooling climate, all weather watching is interesting :-)

Yes should have added from a coldies point of view. I must admit to being

one of the bitter cold and snow in winter and spanish plumes in summer

brigade. Any other weather unless its notable does not really interest me

as we get enough of normal ie wet, showery, mild, warm, windy and summery

weather during the coarse of a year to make it uneventful.

[SomeLikeItHot]

mild bias?mildies are outnumbered 20-1on here, the reason milder weather is being talked about is because its mid march and the big two models are showing that in five days time it should be here! the ecm and gfs are consistent and agree that it will happen. and even if it doesnt as currently expected its only a question of time.

the day mild gets talked about with such enthusiasm that cold does by so many will be the most notable day in nw history lol

Surely that's a factor of it being mild rather than truly warm. I Iove warm weather and hot weather, can't wait till we get some again, but find getting excited about a day with a temp peaking into the low teens and raining a bit of a struggle and given the choice of that or something cold enough to snow will take the snow every time. Now I can appreciate I might feel different if I was working outside.

[nick sussex]

Yes should have added from a coldies point of view. I must admit to being

one of the bitter cold and snow in winter and spanish plumes in summer

brigade. Any other weather unless its notable does not really interest me

as we get enough of normal ie wet, showery, mild, warm, windy and summery

weather during the coarse of a year to make it uneventful.

I think for most members the fascination is with those synoptics that are different from the norm so I agree with you, whats really interesting about average conditions? It's not that people don't enjoy normal weather but that its not really that interesting.

Generally I find the seasons where you can find both extremes be it hot or very cold to get my attention. The others less so,hence why I tend to not post as much during the spring and autumn.

[Andy Bown]

I think March is the worst month of the year weather interest wise (know that goes against a whole heap of others), just my own view that winter is done and 'warm spring' is still at least April away, Psychological im sure, but nothing to get excited about either way right now.

So are you not finding this quite remarkable March interesting both model and actual weather wise??

Plenty happening right across the UK with synoptics that are so very rare in this month historically.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Boringly mild today in the south so let's hope it improves later in the week.

Sorry but how can you say it is mild in the south today?? Temperatures are widely 5C to 8C, with a couple of stations in the SW reporting 9C or 10C. For this point in March the average maximum temperatures in the south should be between 10C to 12C! So it is far from mild!

[Summer Sun]

As you were so far from GFS the milder air remains to course to push in by Friday

Some troublesome rain looks possible for the SW with a spells of snow further north as the rain bumps in to the colder air which is slowly getting pushed away

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Eskimo]

No real change from the GFS 12z regarding Friday.

Edited March 18, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Geordiesnow]

It does look like in my eyes for at least for the end of this week the mild air has got more chance of winning whereas the cold air is beng modelled to make less inroads South and West as first thought, especially on the GFS model.

The easterly flow for this week is looking more and more sorry for itself unfortunately and it seems the ECM has overdone the easterly flow for this week but overall the pattern from the models have remained the same but it would appear for cold weather fans, the alignments of the cold air is not going to be all that favorable so Mushy would be right in saying it could very well turn milder for the end of the week with alot of rainfall forecast.

Whether or not the low will undercut still afterwards is yet to be decided but i think it looks less likely this will be the case.