Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Purga]

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Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 8m

Risk of snow likely to extend quite a way south overnight into Sat as the fronts continue to be held further S & SW

Some hope for the south then?

[SomeLikeItHot]

to highlight the difference altitude makes, here just down the road in derby its wet slush, as was expected yesterday.

im finding it hard to believe the snowtotals the bbc suggest IF other low lying areas are getting the slushfest i am, let alone some of the more ambitious totals that have been suggested .

a bitter cold few days ahead in a strong easterly as the precipitation zone sinks southward. cloudy and dull at first for many, esp southerly areas. sun breaking through in northern areas first , but bitterly cold with severe overnight frosts.

I wouldn't write it of yet as much of the precip is still yet to come.

According to the 6z NAE there is another up to 20-30mm of precipitation yet to fall over much of the midlands, I guess it depends when the cold pushes back in and how it mixes with the precipitation into tonight.

Totals to 6am - 12pm today.

Totals to 6am Sunday.

Edited March 22, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble run still shows the coldest uppers easing later next week

The full ensemble goes above the zero line eventually

[TEITS]

I would ignore the NAE.

Check the radar at 9am compared to the NAE prediction.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/22/basis06/ukuk/prec/13032209_2206.gif

Compare with the more accurate GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs033.gif

How I expect today to pan out is this.

Over much of Wales, W Midlands we shall see the precip largely fade away towards lunchtime and this could include N England. However towards later afternoon and evening snow will become more widespread and heavier across N England, Wales, Midlands especially overnight. The snow will also begin to extend E especially late into the night. During tomorrow it will dry up in N England but further spells of snow are likely especially across E Midlands into W parts of E Anglia before slowly fading away during the day.

So basically the main event is still to come especially overnight!

[Harsh Climate]

I would ignore the NAE.

Check the radar at 9am compared to the NAE prediction.

http://expert-images...032209_2206.gif

Compare with the more accurate GFS.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs033.gif

How I expect today to pan out is this.

Over much of Wales, W Midlands we shall see the precip largely fade away towards lunchtime and this could include N England. However towards later afternoon and evening snow will become more widespread and heavier across N England, Wales, Midlands especially overnight. The snow will also begin to extend E especially late into the night. During tomorrow it will dry up in N England but further spells of snow are likely especially across E Midlands into W parts of E Anglia before slowly fading away during the day.

So basically the main event is still to come especially overnight!

I agree teits, the snow over northern england/midlands should become heavier this evening/overnight BUT the zone spreading further south east towards the south east of england as the rain/sleet turns more to snow.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[SomeLikeItHot]

I would ignore the NAE.

Check the radar at 9am compared to the NAE prediction.

http://expert-images...032209_2206.gif

Compare with the more accurate GFS.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs033.gif

How I expect today to pan out is this.

Over much of Wales, W Midlands we shall see the precip largely fade away towards lunchtime and this could include N England. However towards later afternoon and evening snow will become more widespread and heavier across N England, Wales, Midlands especially overnight. The snow will also begin to extend E especially late into the night. During tomorrow it will dry up in N England but further spells of snow are likely especially across E Midlands into W parts of E Anglia before slowly fading away during the day.

So basically the main event is still to come especially overnight!

funnily enough yesterday I posted the GFS accumulations and was told (by someone else) to ignore the GFS and just use the more accurate NAE!

But I agree the NAE totals seem too high but it also agree with your overall assessment, the main event would seem to be this evening into tomorrow when the second band hits, and the cold uppers are pushing back south.

The GFS indicates a broader area of accumulations but potentially lower amounts in the highest areas compared with its earlier runs.

Incidentally when we see NAE precipitation rates like this it says "Sum of precipitation over a 6 hour time interval" even though it is shown in 3 hourly increments. Does any one know is it meant to be amount over the preceeding 6 hours, the 6 hours centered on the time in question or the next 6 hours?

[Frank Trough]

looking a bit further ahead, the 06z delivers a pretty similar fail from the Atlantic over the Easter weekend, very similar to the one we are currently experiencing. Pressure remains high to the northeast and eventually the core of the trough drifts back out into the Atlantic re-introducing a E/SE flow. The ECM is similar. Although the GFS does deliver some milder uppers i'm not sure the ECM would for very long....and it's the 06z of course!

it's starting to look a bit like groundhog day...another attempt and failure next weekend from the Atlantic? The met office seemed pretty confident yesterday of milder air winning out over the Easter weekend and i wonder if they will be quite so confident today. I hope they are, because i'm not and i'm cold, wet and fed up.

And, the CFS (i know, i know..) has shown quite a few times when i've looked recently that the heights eventually progress towards Greenland in April which makes me want to vomit.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[kent]

Squall line coming up from SW shortly to affect most of central southern areas. Could be nasty for a while.

[Harsh Climate]

Here's where the weather front is currently sitting that will affect midlands/northern england later this afternoon/evening.

The area I have circled is where snow will develop and push into the mentioned areas.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Yarmy]

looking a bit further ahead, the 06z delivers a pretty similar fail from the Atlantic over the Easter weekend, very similar to the one we are currently experiencing. Pressure remains high to the northeast and eventually the core of the trough drifts back out into the Atlantic re-introducing a E/SE flow. The ECM is similar. Although the GFS does deliver some milder uppers i'm not sure the ECM would for very long....and it's the 06z of course!

it's starting to look a bit like groundhog day...another attempt and failure next weekend from the Atlantic? The met office seemed pretty confident yesterday of milder air winning out over the Easter weekend and i wonder if they will be quite so confident today. I hope they are, because i'm not and i'm cold, wet and fed up.

Looks dry, grey, and bitterly, relentlessly cold for much of the UK next week with occasional snow showers in the East. Who could want that? And yet I find myself intrigued and wondering how long it can go on.

[mike Meehan]

to highlight the difference altitude makes, here just down the road in derby its wet slush, as was expected yesterday.

im finding it hard to believe the snowtotals the bbc suggest IF other low lying areas are getting the slushfest i am, let alone some of the more ambitious totals that have been suggested .

a bitter cold few days ahead in a strong easterly as the precipitation zone sinks southward. cloudy and dull at first for many, esp southerly areas. sun breaking through in northern areas first , but bitterly cold with severe overnight frosts.

interesting mid week, as the wind eases and theres more sun, it could lead to fog, freezing fog, as snow melts by day but freezes at night ? .... any expert think this is likely? its just unusual to get fog at this time of the year, or at least its gone by daytime!

the good old gfs still suggests a warm up next weekend, one day it will be right! but atm im far from expecting a sudden and decisive switch from winter to spring, even when the milder weather does get here it wouldnt surprise me to get more cold spells. this happened in the cold spring of 79, cold upto easter weekend which was sunny and very warm, then more cold weather came back in early may with some wintriness.

It does remind me of 04.04.1964, the day I got married, when we had snow showers at Berkhamsted, then we flew to Jersey where we had a marvellous week of blue skies and we able to sit out on the beach.

Spring is very often a battle ground with winter still fighting a rear guard action whilst warmer weather tries to encroach - I just hope the warmer weather comes sooner rather than later.

[mushymanrob]

I wouldn't write it of yet as much of the precip is still yet to come.

oh im not writing off the totals yet, im not sure though whether lying snow or fallen snow is counted, i assume lying. the point is that this mornings dose is melting, so anything to come will find it hard to accumulate unless theres a marked temp drop.

this is imby of course, i cannot speak for other areas especially higher ones. if they have no melt, snow depths will of course be greater. the bbc who i trust as the most reliable place for accurate weather predictions (the tv broadcast, not the website) suggests 40cm max, perhaps more in drifts. itll be interesting to see who gets what.

[Purga]

Great end to GFS 06z FI !

Frost & icy roads warning?

The easterly monsoon marches relentlessly on well into April

Edited March 22, 2013 by Purga

[Frank Trough]

Great end to GFS 06z FI !

Frost & icy roads warning?

The easterly monsoon marches relentlessly on well into April

Not being funny, but what is "great" about that chart for the south? Great if you like cold, grey nothingness but i get the feeling that's not what you mean.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[SomeLikeItHot]

I note the Met has updated their warnings, more areas under amber and into Saturday (and region shifted slightly). also East Anglia and parts of the midlands gets one into Sunday.

[Purga]

Not being funny, but what is "great" about that chart for the south? Great if you like cold, grey nothingness but i get the feeling that's not what you mean.

Great = very cold uppers and surface feed directly ENE from a still frozen continent with every opportunity of snow showers as we get closer to the time. It's deep FI of course so to be taken with a huge pinch of salt (on th roads hopefully! LOL) but with the v cold easterly theme open to more snow.

CFS still carries the theme deep into April

If any of this verifies it has to be exceptional and exciting for weather enthusiasts doesn't it?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Great = very cold uppers and surface feed directly ENE from a still frozen continent with every opportunity of snow showers as we get closer to the time. It's deep FI of course so to be taken with a huge pinch of salt (on th roads hopefully! LOL) but with the v cold easterly theme open to more snow.

CFS still carries the theme deep into April

If any of this verifies it has to be exceptional and exciting for weather enthusiasts doesn't it?

But the charts you show did not have very cold uppers.

By that time the cold pool has diminished and we would just have cold rain.

Personally I am hoping for a switch. I want some warmth now.

[Summer Sun]

Great end to GFS 06z FI !

Frost & icy roads warning?

The easterly monsoon marches relentlessly on well into April

Those are not cold enough uppers for snow and would bring cold rain not snow

Edited March 22, 2013 by Gavin.

[Polar Maritime]

But the charts you show did not have very cold uppers.

By that time the cold pool has diminished and we would just have cold rain.

Personally I am hoping for a switch. I want some warmth now.

Looks cold enough to me for April...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks cold enough to me for April...

Cold enough for what though?

[Polar Maritime]

Cold enough for what though?

For me, sleet/snow showers.

That is a very cold chart/set-up for April.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

That is a very cold chart for April.

Cold enough for snow?. For high altitude maybe but for the rest of us?. Don't see the point of having a cold April if it's not going to snow. a bit like being in no mans land. we might aswell have warmth.

Edited March 22, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[rory o gorman]

agreed gavin the above temperatures would do nothing for snow , all that chart shows me is grey cloudy weather with a 'lovely' inversion sitting over us. not for me thanks

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looks cold enough to me for April...

A CFS chart from +504h out - hardly conclusive evidence of a cold April.

The uppers in the chart are not very cold anyway in terms of snowfall chances at low elevations.

You may get snow, but you are 300m up in the peak district!

Edited March 22, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Polar Maritime]

Cold enough for snow?. For you maybe but for the rest of us?. Don't see the point of having a cold april if it's not going to snow. a bit like being in no mans land. we might aswell have warmth.

The weather does not need to prove a point, It does what it want's. All im saying is that chart is very cold for April, and the CFS has done pretty well this winter/Spring as a pattern guide.

Im not hunting for snow, as some seem to think...

And RD, I never said it was conclusive evidence for anything, just what the chart is showing.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Polar Maritime