Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very cold to t168

T216 is when it (cold) started to ease this morning fingers crossed for tonight!

216, deep FI Spring is miles off yet! I was wanting it to get warmer, but now I am fully in winter mode again, feels like 2 winters this year

[SMU]

Wow ECM 144 & 168-

has the -10c isotherm still over England at now day 7!

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?21-0

Also the -10c line moving back into Scotland...

S

PS who cares about the BBC weather its rubbish.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that the odds favour a mostly dry cloudy scenario with the odd flurry from the easterly on Sunday and into early next week, as there is likely to be a zone of dry and stable air between 650 and 850hPa. However I think snow showers would develop fairly widely if the ECMWF at T+144/168 came off because the winds back north-easterly and we get lower heights. With the frontal snow event still very much "on" for tomorrow and Saturday, the ECMWF is shaping up to be a pretty snowy run tonight but any NE'ly into next week is open to question at this range.

[Peejayem]

But synoptically and from an enthusiasts perspective, completely amazing.....considering what's gone on so far.

Depends on what the weather on the ground is. Cold, grey drizzly easterlies wouldn't stir up much enthusiasm, if they came about

[Panayiotis]

Is this high pressure over us? Where did that build from!?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...M1-192.GIF?21-0

Another epic chart- Severe frost, very cold day maxima & snow moving into the SW....

UK is sub -9c on that chart & a patch of -10c over the central belt!

S

Edited March 21, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Summer Sun]

Coldest uppers still there, this morning by t216 the coldest uppers left we'll see what this evening brings

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

Is this high pressure over us? Where did that build from!?

Between T144 and T168, look at the 1020mb line near Greenland, it pushed south East. The high looked an option.

Still it's a cold high, very cold underneath it as Steve says

Sorry Gavin T216

Who's up for round 2

Edited March 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

chris55

firstly i didnt say no snow anywhere, the rest has been addressed in the ramp/ mayhem thread which is quite bizarre because thats exactly whats going on here!

[Summer Sun]

Coldest uppers slowly breaking up

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032112/ECM1-216.GIF?21-0

Never ending!!

Snow moving into the SW & Sliding....

S

[Panayiotis]

From IMBY perspective this is very nice! As Steve states snow edging into the SW, and uppers more than enough to support it..

Ian's comment about the Metoffice's thoughts seems to have some truth behind it if the ECM is correct...

Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cloud 10]

Is this high pressure over us? Where did that build from!?

Looks like a surface high caused by the entrenched cold,which occur quite a lot over Scandinavia.

This means of course that the UK is the new Scandinavia!

[snowice]

WELL COLDER THAN THE 00Z

[Captain Shortwave]

Coldest uppers slowly breaking up

Given the set-up, -4 uppers will do us fine

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Coldest uppers still there, this morning by t216 the coldest uppers left we'll see what this evening brings

Easter Saturday snowfest!!!!!!!!!!!!!! showing 216, deepest FI I know

[Midlands Ice Age]

HC

That is the MET 006Z Fax.

MIA

John H, Harsh Climate

Perhaps my screen hasn't updated correctly (even tho I,ve been ont of IE and then nack in again), but my Fax chart clearly shows the time as T +24 for 06:00 UTC on Friday.. I still make that the original was produced at 06:00 today!!.

Am I doing something wrong here?

MIA

[snowice]

Coldest uppers slowly breaking up

They were -4 on ooz on 12z there -8uppers

[The Northern Ramper]

Given the set-up, -4 uppers will do us fine

This must be Gavin's Easter warm up haha

Edited March 21, 2013 by Ramp

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well the ECM supports snowfall right out to day 10 this evening.

[Mark Neal.]

Anyone got a link to the precipitation charts from the ECM, any idea where the snow-line would be come Friday night into Saturday morning? Thanks.

The last few frames of the ECM, showing Snow moving in on Easter weekend was what Ian Fergusson was alluding to yesterday and the last few model runs (various models) have shown this as a possibility.

[Purga]

Hmmm... is that low to the north ready to pounce onto us?Or will that low to the SW slide into France giving us more easterly winds? Much better ECM 12z than the 00z!

'The low to the SW slide into France'

A blizzard to finish off the month and start BH Monday and April - very nice.

PS: There should be some decent entrenched cold over us by this time which ups the chances of widespread snow.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Purga

[lorenzo]

MIA try this link - I like this one as it includes the timestamps for when produced. Not the quickest updated if your waiting on the late evening ones though.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t24

also just click on the chart and it jumps to next frame which is good.

ECM = It's February, no really it is actually February. The endless chasing of models has meant we all got caught in a timewarp.

[-uksnow-]

Anyone got a link to the precipitation charts from the ECM, any idea where the snow-line would be come Friday night into Saturday morning? Thanks.

The last few frames of the ECM, showing Snow moving in on Easter weekend was what Ian Fergusson was alluding to yesterday and the last few model runs (various models) have shown this as a possibility.

Wind | Atlantic ocean forecasts | Weather forecasts | Weather | Icelandic Meteorological office

[snowice]

Anyone got a link to the precipitation charts from the ECM, any idea where the snow-line would be come Friday night into Saturday morning? Thanks.

The last few frames of the ECM, showing Snow moving in on Easter weekend was what Ian Fergusson was alluding to yesterday and the last few model runs (various models) have shown this as a possibility.

SK will put them up later