Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[SomeLikeItHot]

threat only as I've poonted out before unless the skew-t suggests convection then you will not get it, for this area 120-144 tops are around 6000ft, enough for showers but certainly not heavy ones

From memory this was pointed out before the last cold easterly earlier in the month at about +120 then revised at around +48 to something heavier being possible. Southend and sussex in particular ended up with quite a bit.

Of course same was said in late Feb at +120 and it panned out as very little in reality. So the morale of this story... I guess we will know closer to the date!

[Purga]

Still cold with frost right into the BH weekend

Milder in the day on Easter monday but not warm

Could we get a cold April with more snow opportunities? I wouldn't bet against it with this year's patterns.

The establishing of the European North Easterly Monsoon continues - LOL. Rule ENEM !

Edited March 21, 2013 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

NAVGEM has other ideas at day 7

Unfortunately the frontal band is way south.

[Cheshire Freeze]

''Last (latest) 32 CFSv2 ensembles not enthused about return to positive AO at least thru April''

A quote retweeted by Matt Hugo on twitter ^^^

The AO looks to remain negative up to and perhaps beyond 16th April on the chart I've just seen.

Edited March 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[Roger J Smith]

Check out the March CET thread for some daily records, this forthcoming spell could be as cold as ever seen in the last week of March where daily records are mostly around -0.5 C. My only model comment would be, cancel the cycling tour of Northumbria.

[Captain Shortwave]

If the GFS ensembles are to be believed, we should bookmark next Thursday as another possible snow event. A lot of ensembles have an area of low pressure just to our South/South East (it's further north than the operational)

Just something to watch perhaps

Edited March 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

''Last (latest) 32 CFSv2 ensembles not enthused about return to positive AO at least thru April''

A quote retweeted by Matt Hugo on twitter ^^^

The AO looks to remain negative up to and perhaps beyond 16th April on the chart I've just seen.

Yep here's the picture to go with it

[SMU]

Alligns with the UKMO 144 that CS-

S

[Mucka]

Doesn't look like a warm up onNAVGEM

[Cheshire Freeze]

The question is would the mildies be able to withstand another month of potential cold

[Yarmy]

Alligns with the UKMO 144 that CS-

S

And with what IanF mentioned yesterday.

[Purga]

''Last (latest) 32 CFSv2 ensembles not enthused about return to positive AO at least thru April''

A quote retweeted by Matt Hugo on twitter ^^^

The AO looks to remain negative up to and perhaps beyond 16th April on the chart I've just seen.

Goes on and on - my post above was made slightly 'tongue in cheek' however, 'many a true word...' LOL

[mcweather]

Alligns with the UKMO 144 that CS-

S

Yes Steve, hoping Fergie will get back to us regarding yesterdays Meto worries about another big snow event ( possibly further south) later next week.

[Mark Neal.]

The question is would the mildies be able to withstand another month of potential cold

Gavin and Co would combust! Anyway if it continues into April I would be getting annoyed we need some spring warmth by then!

Interestingly as been a story of the winter so far, the cold keeps going and Atlantic keep being pushed back!

[johnholmes]

The AO prediction is no more accurate than any other at the time scales being mentioned. Over a 2 year check the AO and NAO prediction, and of course they are based on the synoptic outputs, were pretty good to 7 days then fell away in accuracy. Hence why I started to look at the 500mb anomaly charts as a possibly more reliable indicator at the 10-15 day range. As with anything in meteorology though you have to look at everything and then after analysing decide which is the most likely. Sometimes you get it right sometimes you get it wrong, be it 24 hours ahead or 24 days ahead!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gavin and Co would combust!

Either that or on the next plane to somewhere tropical/dominated by HP for Gavin

[Summer Sun]

The question is would the mildies be able to withstand another month of potential cold

I wouldn't!

Really hoping the met offices thoughts of a warm up around Easter Saturday come true even if it is unsettled just bring us some milder air from somewhere this cold has gone on long enough now Nature and Humans (most) are in need of some warmth now

@fergieweather where is spring?" We expect shift to average/milder conditions around Easter Saturday, but staying v unsettled

[bradymk]

Yep here's the picture to go with it

Its not a great outlook if you want spring warmth unfortunately! The AO has been -ve for a long period now and can not last forever. May be a good sign for summer if the -AO pattern slowly dissapears toe replaced by +AO, hopefully around June till october Back to now and when was the last time March CET was lower than a below avg Jan CET? Could easily happen with models not letting up on cold at all. Its pretty remarkable for time of year. Interesting views from Ian and John about cloud tops and shower activity next week. I am yet to look at skews but hopefully march sun will aid any convection. Edited March 21, 2013 by bradythemole

[Captain Shortwave]

Either that or on the next plane to somewhere tropical/dominated by HP for Gavin

Isn't the north pole dominated by HP at the moment?

[John Snow]

The question is would the mildies be able to withstand another month of potential cold

As long as we get a good summer after the 6 month winter we will have had.

My energy bills are frightening after all the heating I will have had on this few months and seemingly coming month too.

[Purga]

Look at the 12z ENS so far for London

http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=305&y=151

Excellent!!

Edited March 21, 2013 by Purga

[Cheshire Freeze]

Look at the 12z ENS so far for London

http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=305&y=151

Excellent!!

Aye and look at Manchester's ensembles with gathering support into FI of cold uppers persisting

http://www.meteociel...xt=1&x=238&y=46

The mean into FI was higher last night with fewer cold members.

Edited March 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

GEM wants to follow the easterly with a northerly,

The remainder of the run brings a weak high across the uk which sinks se and drags up a soueaster by day 10. the northerly never makes it.

[John Snow]

Even though this is a snow forum I find it hard to believe that there are people relishing cold in April without snow unless they have a large portfolio of British Gas shares in which case they have hit the jackpot.

I love snow but spring should be about warmth, a cold April will be mentally draining.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I love snow but spring should be about warmth, a cold April will be mentally draining.

But synoptically and from an enthusiasts perspective, completely amazing.....considering what's gone on so far.