Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Could be worse, they could pour their cornflakes only to discover that they are Frosties

Sounds like an upgrade to me lol

[Panayiotis]

Last nights models (18z) was showing the progged cold spell to last until the 29th the, 12z has extended this to the 30th....

http://modeles.meteo...un=12&runpara=0

In comparison to this for the same are (Cardiff):

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=202&ext=1&y=140&run=18&runpara=0

CC beat me to it .

Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

Last nights models (18z) was showing the progged cold spell to last until the 29th (taking below -5C uppers) the 12z has extended this to the 30th....

http://modeles.meteo...un=12&runpara=0

Thought so!

[chris55]

UKMO decent for those a bit further south Friday night,

[Panayiotis]

UKMO decent for those a bit further south Friday night,

It does but which model do I take more seriously the UKMO or the NAE?

[mushymanrob]

Even though this is a snow forum I find it hard to believe that there are people relishing cold in April without snow unless they have a large portfolio of British Gas shares in which case they have hit the jackpot.

I love snow but spring should be about warmth, a cold April will be mentally draining.

no. this is a weather forum to discuss what the models are predicting. its open all year around.

[Isabellesnanny]

Even though this is a snow forum I find it hard to believe that there are people relishing cold in April without snow unless they have a large portfolio of British Gas shares in which case they have hit the jackpot.

I love snow but spring should be about warmth, a cold April will be mentally draining.

Agreed - this has gone on too long now - bring on the Spring.

You are from my neck of the woods John so fingers crossed a gradual warm up for us

[snowice]

well at last ! going by nae Dublin should get the snow Matty will be pleased

[chris55]

It does but which model do I take more seriously the UKMO or the NAE?

Its pretty similar to the NAE,

no. this is a weather forum to discuss what the models are predicting. its open all year around.

Hows your forecast of no snow for anywhere coming along MMR?

[bluearmy]

considering the timescale involved, big differences with the 0c isotherm which runs thames estuary to southport gfs/ecm whilst ukmo and gem have it east sussex to anglesey. i think the latest faxes have the fronts that bit further north than the earlier ones also.

[Harsh Climate]

Yes it is further north

Also the second front is expected to move in earlier.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Paul]

Can we keep this thread on topic please - ie model related. Thanks.

Latest forecast from Michael Fish is below..

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yes it is further north

Also the second front is expected to move in earlier.

HC

That is the MET 006Z Fax.

MIA

[Harsh Climate]

HC

That is the MET 006Z Fax.

MIA

If that chart is +24 hours for friday 12:00, surely it was released 12:00 today?

[Ian Brown]

ECM out to T120, has a very Feb 86 look, very cold and largely cloudy with some light snow for Central, Eastern and Southern areas.

[Boro Snow]

wow that ecm looks cold into next week -10 uppers 4 days in a row for my region only up to 120 hours at the min, feel for ya gavin

[Snowman.]

Strong heights NW still.

[Panayiotis]

Steve, where are your comments on this one? Looks like some heavy convective showers from this chart at 144hrs..

Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The bbc looked crap for anyone south of brum , even brum itself , seems to have pushed further north this evening to me according to the bbc at least , it's not sill Friday night it sinks south again

[snowice]

^{Looks like a lot of snow showers on} ukmo^/ecm ^120hrs

[Panayiotis]

Hmmm... is that low to the north ready to pounce onto us?Or will that low to the SW slide into France giving us more easterly winds? Much better ECM 12z than the 00z!

[johnholmes]

HC

That is the MET 006Z Fax.

MIA

not sure how you get that the time shows it as 12z?

[chris55]

The remarkable charts just keep coming,

Would be very nice if these cold charts actually produce some snow IMBY.

[Summer Sun]

very cold to t168

T216 is when it (cold) started to ease this morning fingers crossed for tonight!

Straw clutching I know but the northern blocking starts to ease

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[chris55]

Hmmm... is that low to the north ready to pounce onto us?Or will that low to the SW slide into France giving us more easterly winds? Much better ECM 12z than the 00z!

If we do get another push from the Atlantic that delivers snow then the Mets very early thoughts, courtesy of Ian would need serious credit. One to watch.