Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

You missed what the chief said yesterday then , I wouldn't lie my friend . They don't even consider it at the early time frames

They also say they can't wait to get rid of the NAE.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

They also say they can't wait to get rid of the NAE.

Correct in place of there new model that's bound to be brilliant . But the NAE is a good tool , very good , sometimes it's wrong yes , but in the main it's very good , and in a different league to anything the gfs can offer in high res

[Harsh Climate]

Here's a thought, Many people are expecting the first front to just die/ clear northern areas early saturday, while the second front affects more southern areas saturday (midlands/south east etc..)

I wonder if it's a possibility that the first front could just linger across the north while the second one affects the south. Meaning we end up with two areas of snow to watch by saturday???

If so I think it would be good news for those in northern england wanting a long period of snow.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Captain Shortwave]

I think it's best for people to check the regional threads and the metoffice site for the best idea of whether or not it will snow for your location to avoid any confusion by the like of these example lines.

"Liverpool won't get any snow because your football team is rubbish"

"Norwich will get snow to prevent Delia Smith's cooking reaching numerous unfortunate people"

Moving on, uppers of around -11 look set to be widespread across the country after this snow event. Lets see what we could squeeze out of this temperature and convective activity wise.

[Panayiotis]

Here's a thought, Many people are expecting the first front to just die/ clear northern areas early saturday, while the second front affects more southern areas saturday (midlands/south east etc..)

I wonder if it's a possibility that the first front could just linger across the north while the second one affects the south. Meaning we end up with two areas of snow to watch by saturday???

If so I think it would be good news for those in northern england wanting a long period of snow.

Yes there may be snow in the north but by that chart the front is fragmenting and dying away, so most of the snow in the north would be light. Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Harsh Climate]

Yes there may be snow in the north but by that chart the front is fragmenting and dying away, so most of the snow in the north would be light.

Ye but not before it has dropped a good 24 hours+ of snow in some parts

[Captain Shortwave]

Longer term, I think the gfs breakdown will be slowed down on this run. Looks like a higher chance of a northerly compared to the last run

Heights further west and low pressure forming over Northern Norway (also further west)

More energy undercutting from the upstream low too

Edited March 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ITSY]

snow mania friday for north, snow mania saturday for central/eastern parts. I have homes in both, sounds good for me. #greedy

[mcweather]

A few light showers but profiles all look extensively dry. Mostly dry and cold early to mid-week.

Hi Fergie thanks as ever for your expertise. I know the meto guys must be very busy with the impending snowmageddon in mid to northern parts. Are they also still concerned about later next week as well ( as you intimated yesterday)

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has -12 uppers in NE Scotland on Sunday

The northern blocking high edges into the UK later this weekend setting up a cold Ester to SE'ly wind

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Not quite as cold a run from GFS at t144 and t150 this afternoon

12z left 06z right

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013032112/UW120-21.GIF?21-17

EPIC UKMO tonight right from T36 when the snow lands in MOST places right out to 120 when the -10c isotherm brings the threat of heavy snow showers from the East...

S

[IDO]

HP holding the Atlantic back better on the 12z:

06z: 12z:

[PB22]

Not quite as cold a run from GFS at t144 and t150 this afternoon

12z left 06z right

Wow, that's some serious straw clutching going on there Gavin! Desperate times for those of us wanting some spring warmth with the next week looking quite simply extraordinary. In all my years of weather watching, I've never seen anything progged for the end of March like we have for the coming days. Significant snowfalls, severe frosts and a notable wind chill helping to keep it feeling distinctly wintry.

[adamgooner]

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?21-17

EPIC UKMO tonight right from T36 when the snow lands in MOST places right out to 120 when the -10c isotherm brings the threat of heavy snow showers from the East...

S

Steve, How much snow do you think London will see (outside of central London)? Precip has edged south...but is it far enough south hmm?

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM wants to follow the easterly with a northerly,

[Mucka]

GEM 144 has the Scandi low moving toward the Uk.

If that slid down the East of the UK it would be the mother of all snow storms - again.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM 144 has the Scandi low moving toward the Uk.

Yep as I said last night, this could well be extended into April. I noticed on the 6z ensembles that Gavin posted earlier that more ensemble members were starting to remain cold.....especially further N. Which is exactly how the projected cold for next week started. Starts with a few ensemble members picking up on the Atlantic energy dropping further south (against the natural bias of the NWP to drag the jet stream further N).

I think there's a reasonable possibility of another snow event around the Easter weekend.

Edited March 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Steve, How much snow do you think London will see (outside of central London)? Precip has edged south...but is it far enough south hmm?

North side 2-8cm is the guess

S

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Now that the fronts are making progress across the British Isles, does anyone have any of yesterday's high res models saved, I'd be interested to know how accurate they were 24 hours out 24 hours ago, if you see what I mean. It might give a clue as to how it'll pan out over the next 24 hrs.

[adamgooner]

North side 2-8cm is the guess

S

cheers

[Methuselah]

After all the months of cold, surely this chart is a thing of beauty?

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=0b54d5b4951482afa8f894736e60e063

[Summer Sun]

The high is holding the low in the Atlantic back on this run

Possibly a white Easter day for a few

After all the months of cold, surely this chart is a thing of beauty?

http://www.netweathe...8f894736e60e063

Cant view it

GFS seems a bit more in line with ECM tonight at t240

[johnholmes]

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?21-17

EPIC UKMO tonight right from T36 when the snow lands in MOST places right out to 120 when the -10c isotherm brings the threat of heavy snow showers from the East...

S

threat only as I've pointed out before unless the skew-t suggests convection then you will not get it, for this area 120-144 tops are around 6000ft, enough for showers but certainly not heavy ones

Edited March 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is there any milder weather showing up in the models for the next couple of weeks - I am on holiday ( in UK ) for a few days the week of the bank holiday Monday and really dreading it if this sort of weather holds on.

I'd check again on Monday because at this juncture I'm not convinced of any warm up next weekend....just based on experience and what's gone on over the past few weeks/months.