Are we about to enter another mini ice age ?

[stewfox]

Well actually it did there was even a book released. Got it somewhere. I'm pretty sure if governments make grants available to research the next ice age they'll be ample proof with dodgy charts and figures to back the "fact up"

Perhaps ice age is misleading a period ie 50/100 yrs of cooling but clearly man made forcing will have a influence.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Paul

[Gray-Wolf]

The other thing to think on is where the cold anoms across the N.Hemisphere came from this winter? Were they Arctic Exports or were they home grown H.P. deep colds?

Where has this cold blast here come from? Inner Continental cold or Arctic plunge?

The past years, whilst we flooded, saw anomalous H.P. systems in the inner continent driving heatwave and drought synoptics.

The Sun is now on our side of the equator so if the 'cold' came from an inner continental H.P. what 'temp's will we see from these areas as the sun's strength grows?

We may well be seeing the development of new synoptics and they may well lead to deep winter cold but at the same time they will facilitate high summer temps and drought in the same regions (as we have been seeing?)

In six weeks the temps in the inner continents will have 'flipped' but will the H.P. systems maintain? If they do then that is Russia, China and the U.S. in deep do do's again with drought and wildfires.

As I said previous i just hope the Jet is even more impacted and we drag in some summer warmth and dry as we have drawn in this cold!

[Tamara]

Good post! Succinctly sums up where we are and where we might be going.

I do remember reading, many years ago, the likelihood of a more permanent Nina phase occurring in tandem with the reduction in visible sunspots that the author envisaged for the beginning of the new millenium.

I do wonder if the Arctic ice loss is also tied in with the changes in the sun's output - the incursions of warmth in the Arctic are due to the increasingly amplified jet which in turn is recognised as a feature of past grand minimums.

Yes exactly. There are perturbations in the suns spin momentum and its orbital angular momentum related to its oscillation around the solar system. Acceleration and deceleration has been observed in this spin and angular momentum.

Cycles in the suns motions are associated with solar activity and climate change and the mean length of these perturbation cycles is approx 36 years. Certain phases of the sunspot cycle are related to ENSO events. The true sunspot cycle is the magnetic Hale cycle with a mean length of 22 years. A close relationship has been observed, based on the observation of the variables over the Tropical Pacific, between the ENSO Index (MEI) and the Hale cycle.

La Nina last dominated in the Hale cycle of 1954 to 76 and on the basis of the alternating pattern we can see how predominance of La Nina should be expected in the current cycle that began in 2007. If we look at the weak, and ever likely weaker solar activity to come, then in tandem with the Nina phase of ENSO we could see a strong effect on global temperatures compared to the 60s when temperatures were falling in spite of a steep increase in anthropogenic CO2.

Cold air is less likely to spill out of the arctic during high solar activity, so that does point also as a contributory factor to the lack of cold blocking synoptics prior to recent most years when solar activity has started waning. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to changes in the AMO as well.

It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years

Edited March 23, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Beast of Plympton]

I have posted about this in another thread before and I apologise if I ruffle a few feathers, these are only my views.

Firstly, I find it very interesting that "global warming" has now been renamed "climate change". This speaks volumes to my mind.

Global warming has been happening on and off for years. Mother Nature will reduce and increase the temperature when she decides after a conference with the sun.

The problem with Global Warming is that international governments cannot afford for it not to be true now. The reason for this is because the make far too much money from it in CO2 emmisions tax on company cars, congestion charges, fuel tax and energy. Of course we should preserve the planets resources, but we shouldn't be charged for the privilege of doing so. Scientists get huge grants form taxpayers money for researching the subject.

However, a few years back emails were found from scientists of the University of East Anglia trying to "massage" data to show an increase in temperatures rather than show the truth that we had actually cooled a little. Im sure there were fiscal reasons for this.

BBC presenters and scientists have lost there jobs because they have not "towed the line" on global warming, the BBC of course being very important to the government means that the government must dismiss such behaviour because if people didn't believe it the planet would be in grave danger. I feel the governments purse would be in more grave danger as they would lose a huge amount of income and possibly have to repay what they have taken in "green tax".

Al Gore made his first billion from global warming and when it is challenged with actual data that could prove him wrong he resorts to the racism card and I quote "Not believing in global warming is the equivalent of being a racist". Al Gore made this statement.

Another American Scientist said and I quote "If you don't believe in global warming you should be treated for mental health issues and be put on tablets".

These are not the quotes of people who believe in their cause, they are the quotes of people who are concerned they will be proved wrong.

There is much evidence pointing towards us heading towards another ice age. I have be alive for 31 years and I do not remember seeing so many bad winters in a row.

The "ice melt" arguement can't be used any more because as somebody in a previous post rightly said, the Arctic ice has declined yet the Antarctic Ice has increased. How can this be if the planet is warming??

Anyway, rant over. This is a sensitive subject and people will have strong views on both sides. However, I do believe the government should be making plans in case we do cool as a planet and our food sources suffer. This would be money better spent.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Essan]

Colder winters cooler summers sounds familar are we due another mini ice age ?

No. Because it's not determined by conditions in Britain alone.

And we've not actually been having particularly cool summers either.

Now, if, say N America was having a run of cold summers, and glaciers were advancing in Greenland and Baffin, you might have a point.

Firstly, I find it very interesting that "global warming" has now been renamed "climate change".

Was that before or after the IPCC was founded?

AGW is a part of cimate change - which also includes (in my opinion the more important) precipitation pattern change.

[Essan]

Well actually it did there was even a book released. Got it somewhere.

The Weather Machine by Nigel Calder - who promoted the idea that ice ages starts suddenly and catastrophically and a new one was imminent, though he conceded in his book that many climate scientists in the 70s thought that AGW would prevent the next ice age happening (this was before we discovered that interglacials do not all last 10,000 years)

[mcweather]

I don't think we are entering a mini ice age but the current spell of weather and the undoubted change in the overall synoptic patter during the last 5 years which will soon be added to by the amo going cold suggest to me number of things.

1 A winter to challenge 47 or 63 is not an impossibility, After all minus 10 uppers are minus ten uppers global warming not withstanding.

2 The major factors governing our day to day weather are not climate change/or global warming, they are the atmospheric and oceanic forcings

like PDO , AMO , NAO ETC.

3 Climate change / global warming changes may be evident on a 50 year to 50 year basis or century to century basis but they are pretty irrelevant on a day to day basis in the shorter term. According to predictions back in the 90's our current March cold spell should have been virtually impossible.

Edited March 23, 2013 by mcweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Was that before or after the IPCC was founded?

AGW is a part of cimate change - which also includes (in my opinion the more important) precipitation pattern change.

The IPCC was founded in 1988 and the term "climate change" has been used by scientists for decades. I am mostly referring to news reports that now use the phrase "climate change" instead of "global warming". I most definitely believe in climate change, but I do not believe that it is all man made. Yes, perhaps we contribute a very small amount but when you hear the scare mongers screaming the man is completely destroying the planet, this just screams arrogance to me. Humans are a very bright race, but we have nothing on the force of mother nature.

I think that the super powers in this world like to control absolutely everything, and mother nature is the only thing we cannot control. So, the want us to believe that we are destoying the planet due to mans intelligence and because we have the power to do it. Well, we don't, we are not destroying the planet and the inconvenient truth is that we have not even scratched the surface.

I will stop ranting now!! Time for dinner

Edited March 23, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Infinituum]

The sun's behaviour happens in cycles. If anyone is seriously wondering whether or not we are entering a Little Ice Age then check out Weatheraction.com. And yes, we are entering a 30 year period of cool summers and protracted winters. Like it or not. Buy a wood burner and insulate yourselves.

[Methuselah]

But - outwith the reach of politicians and media hype - it's always been known as climate change...AGW is merely one cog on a very big wheel.

And, this is not the thread in which to castigate either the IPPC or climate sceptics...

Edited March 23, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Essan]

btw how long is it since we had a record breaking warm March?

Oh yes, 1 year .....

Hence the danger in extropolating a short period of weather in a region that always sees great variety. Though for what it's worth I do think that last March and this are both down to the same issue: a weakened jet which in turn appears to be caused by a combination of reduced solar activity and Arctic warming. Of course the upside is that we can - and I am sure will - see more record warmth before too long.

[stewfox]

No. Because it's not determined by conditions in Britain alone.

And we've not actually been having particularly cool summers either.

Now, if, say N America was having a run of cold summers, and glaciers were advancing in Greenland and Baffin, you might have a point.

Well agree in terms of temps we havent seen a run of 'cool summers' , I dont have stats for cloud/rain etc to hand.

There isnt strong evidence that there was NH pattern changes in these LIA periods . Lets see increasing snow patch retention in Scotland as a better measurment.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The other thing to think on is where the cold anoms across the N.Hemisphere came from this winter? Were they Arctic Exports or were they home grown H.P. deep colds?

Where has this cold blast here come from? Inner Continental cold or Arctic plunge?

The past years, whilst we flooded, saw anomalous H.P. systems in the inner continent driving heatwave and drought synoptics.

Again I think we are seeing the effects of reduced Solar Radiation and Arctic Ice Loss producing opposing effects on the Mid-High Latitude Continents. On the one hand the reduction of Solar Radiation has caused stronger Upper Level Troughs over the Continents in winter which generate strong surface highs as the thermodynamic byproduct of deep Cold Air Advection and radiative cooling which leads to mass convergence in the deep cold pools. While on the other hand the Arctic Ice Loss has led to stronger and more amplified Upper Level Ridges over the Continents in summer which again generate strong surface highs but this time only as a dynamic byproduct of mass convergence in the deep warm pools. The same surface high cannot cause both extreme cold and heat without an Upper Level pattern change. Edited March 23, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Beast of Plympton]

btw how long is it since we had a record breaking warm March?

Oh yes, 1 year .....

Hence the danger in extropolating a short period of weather in a region that always sees great variety. Though for what it's worth I do think that last March and this are both down to the same issue: a weakened jet which in turn appears to be caused by a combination of reduced solar activity and Arctic warming. Of course the upside is that we can - and I am sure will - see more record warmth before too long.

I agree, and we could argue this point until the end of time. When i can't get out of my door due to 2km of ice blocking it I will let you know. Conversley when I can't get out of my door due to the raging fire outside, I will let you know as well!!

Nobody really knows because climate science is still in reality at the embryonic stage, no matter how clever we think that we are. We may not see any change in our lifetime. But either way, I hope we are prepared.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[jethro]

Well agree in terms of temps we havent seen a run of 'cool summers' , I dont have stats for cloud/rain etc to hand.

There isnt strong evidence that there was NH pattern changes in these LIA periods . Lets see increasing snow patch retention in Scotland as a better measurment.

I think Hubert Lamb did fairly extensive study on European climate, his conclusion was that the LIA did show pattern changes in the NH. There was a dramatic increase in our weather coming form the East during the winter months, leading to colder, dryer winters here. I'm not convinced that snow patch retention in Scotland is a reliable measure, all that would show is cooler summer temps in Scotland. When it comes to the UK and the NH, overall annual temps, first frost/last frost, depth of cold, longevity of cold would be more informative- afterall, we're talking about short term climate fluctuation, not descent into full on ice age.

[jethro]

For those who have an interest in how the Sun and the predicted/expected prolonged decline in activity may impact our climate, here are a couple of interesting papers.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/abduss_APR.pdf

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

The second one is rather in-depth, definitely a make a cuppa first kind of read, if you lose the will to live half way through, skip to page 32 for the conclusions.

Obviously these only deal with one aspect which may impact our climate so have to be read with a mind to what else may be going on which also has an impact. Currently, IMO the dramatic changes going on with the Sun are what will have the most dramatic/instantaneous effect on our weather. Based on historical records we have a pretty good idea of what to expect, only the depth/longevity of colder winters is in question, not whether or not they will get colder. I'm hoping the changes in the Arctic will mitigate the expected cooling although from what I've read, there's more chance they will amplify the cold on these shores.

[stewfox]

I think Hubert Lamb did fairly extensive study on European climate, his conclusion was that the LIA did show pattern changes in the NH. There was a dramatic increase in our weather coming form the East during the winter months, leading to colder, dryer winters here. I'm not convinced that snow patch retention in Scotland is a reliable measure, all that would show is cooler summer temps in Scotland. When it comes to the UK and the NH, overall annual temps, first frost/last frost, depth of cold, longevity of cold would be more informative- afterall, we're talking about short term climate fluctuation, not descent into full on ice age.

Its a measure like having extended ski seasons in the Alps.

Obvioulsy if we see glacial advances in the Alps reduce growing seasons 40 winters of sub 3c CET we will be there. Agree short term climate flucuations not 2km of ice coming back, the London tubes would never cope.

[Methuselah]

The length of the Growing Season might be a good enough guide?

[Tamara]

For those who have an interest in how the Sun and the predicted/expected prolonged decline in activity may impact our climate, here are a couple of interesting papers.

http://icecap.us/ima.../abduss_APR.pdf

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

The second one is rather in-depth, definitely a make a cuppa first kind of read, if you lose the will to live half way through, skip to page 32 for the conclusions.

Obviously these only deal with one aspect which may impact our climate so have to be read with a mind to what else may be going on which also has an impact. Currently, IMO the dramatic changes going on with the Sun are what will have the most dramatic/instantaneous effect on our weather. Based on historical records we have a pretty good idea of what to expect, only the depth/longevity of colder winters is in question, not whether or not they will get colder. I'm hoping the changes in the Arctic will mitigate the expected cooling although from what I've read, there's more chance they will amplify the cold on these shores.

Interesting - thanks for those links I'll make sure it is a large pot of tea rather than a cuppa!

[jethro]

The length of the Growing Season might be a good enough guide?

Perhaps, but it's so blinking variable anyway. Only any good as a long term measure and even then has to be tempered with rain records too.

Interesting - thanks for those links I'll make sure it is a large pot of tea rather than a cuppa!

You may need a cosy too for the second one, perhaps a packet of Digestives to hand may not be a bad idea....

[Beast of Plympton]

I'd like to get involved in this but would probably get banned, as has happened on the climate change forum. But I'd like to say good posts, B of D!

Thanks very much!! Again, it is a sensitive subject. However I do not think that people who do not believe in global warming should be branded as clinically insane. There are arguements on both sides and they should both be respected. I am not going to say people who believe should be sectioned, they should just keep an open mind.

[Tamara]

Thanks very much!! Again, it is a sensitive subject. However I do not think that people who do not believe in global warming should be branded as clinically insane. There are arguements on both sides and they should both be respected. I am not going to say people who believe should be sectioned, they should just keep an open mind.

The problem is that there are so many real, and potential forcings in the mix conflicting and cancelling each other out ( positive and negative alike - i.e warming and cooling) we are a long way from definitive answers. To my mind this means that minds have to be ever more open to ALL the possibilities from one end of the spectrum to another. Which pretty much echoes the sentiments you have made anyway

[Essan]

The length of the Growing Season might be a good enough guide?

Indeed. Is it shrinking or growing?

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/high-latitude-growing-season-getting-longer

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/tracking-springs-early-onset/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season_creep

https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/mds/www/Schwartz_etal_2006.pdf

One of the reasons this spring has seemed so poor is because we've gotten used to it starting in mid Feb ......

If the weather this year is evidence to support the start of a new ice age, surely the weather in the past few years is evidence in support of the complete opposite?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/has-spring-sprung/

[stewfox]

Indeed. Is it shrinking or growing?

http://www.climatewa...-getting-longer

http://www.climatece...gs-early-onset/

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Season_creep

https://pantherfile....z_etal_2006.pdf

One of the reasons this spring has seemed so poor is because we've gotten used to it starting in mid Feb ......

If the weather this year is evidence to support the start of a new ice age, surely the weather in the past few years is evidence in support of the complete opposite?

http://metofficenews...-spring-sprung/

Commnents from 2006 and 2007 , wikipedia a 2000 study + a USA study ? Talking about now and going forward, not then. Not talking about events this year or new 'ice age' but trends to colder winters wetter cooler summers. Studies suggest these changes can happen in as little as 10 years.

[Beast of Plympton]

The problem is that there are so many real, and potential forcings in the mix conflicting and cancelling each other out ( positive and negative alike - i.e warming and cooling) we are a long way from definitive answers. To my mind this means that minds have to be ever more open to ALL the possibilities from one end of the spectrum to another. Which pretty much echoes the sentiments you have made anyway

I could not agree more Tamara. Appearance is everything, and if you appear to know everything about a subject people will believe you. Al Gore, is again, a great example of this. He "appeared" to know everything about the climate and much of the world were gullible enough to believe him. This is how he made ridiculous amounts of money from climate science. However, the few brave mavericks that have spoken and contested his theories have been branded liars and insane.

Everybody should keep an open mind, because although we as a species believe we know everything about our planet, I feel she has a few suprises in store yet....