Are we about to enter another mini ice age ?

[Methuselah]

Aye, and for every Al Gore, there's an Anthony Watts.

But, I say again, this thread is not for putting-up strawmen, so that they can be knocked down again...

[festivalking]

I have posted about this in another thread before and I apologise if I ruffle a few feathers, these are only my views.

Firstly, I find it very interesting that "global warming" has now been renamed "climate change". This speaks volumes to my mind.

And there is me thinking you were just a lucky bugger living in princetown. Good work lad. Everything should be questioned on both sides of any argument. I always think that even if I'm convinced on any issue I will aim to try and understand the other view.

[Beast of Plympton]

And there is me thinking you were just a lucky bugger living in princetown. Good work lad. Everything should be questioned on both sides of any argument. I always think that even if I'm convinced on any issue I will aim to try and understand the other view.

Haha!! I guess I am lucky, and thanks very much buddy!! I agree with you completely. Where would we be without debate?? In a very boring world!! Right, pub time... Speak later!!

[Gray-Wolf]

So again we come down to a 'snapshot' of a UK season promoting discussion about a long term climate shift? Is it just me or is there an Elephant in the room?

How many above average months have we had recently compared to 'below average months'? Why are we even thinking about cooling at all? Is it a wish that the truth of warming was , in fact, a myth?

The Sun is now gaining in strength so what will be the end result?

In the dark of winter clear skies leads to what?

In the light of summer clear skies lead to what?

If we are looking at 'stuck weather patterns' (H.P. systems this time) what do they bring in the dark of winter? and in the light of summer??

If 2012 brought an augmentation to the patterns that 07's record ice low brought to bear then what would that mean for our hemisphere this summer???

Will the Russian high be even more devastating than ever this year?

Will the U.S. drought intensify yet again?

Will the China H.P. do similar and intensify?

AGW promised us 'extremes'?

Hows that looking right now?

Any 'extremes' folk remember over the last 6 years?

Albedo flip releases immense energy into the climate system (and frees up even more energy that once was spent 'melting ice' all summer).

This time last year folk were applauding the ice factory in Bering for bringing us record high ice levels to that region (and I was cautioning putting any faith into ice areas outside the basin as they would be gone by May?) and what happened to that 'cold' start?

Record low ice Extent ,Area,Volume.

97% surface melt in Greenland and a ramp up of the Mass loss there from the 2010 'high' levels(which was supposed to be the last a high before a fall???).

Petermann calved further back than ever recorded (and the 'undercut' advanced closer to the sub sea level basin under the ice sheet proper beyond).

We had a record March and the U.S. baked.

The Sun is back our side of the equator.

Anyone care to offer up their personal credence by claiming a record cold N.Hemisphere summer in 2013?

I'll chip in by forecasting another record breaking N.Hemisphere summer with U.S/Russian/Chinese heatwave/Drought events. record wildfires in the Russian Tundra regions, record Wildfire in Europe and the Med. Record mass loss from Greenland and similar , if not catastrophically lower, Arctic ice Volume/Area/Extent by the middle of Aug.

So let us 'discuss' all we want but will anyone face up and offer me records negatives against the ones I'm predicting above? (If the Mods will have them pinned for review in Sept?)

EDIT: I think it a sign of the times that this thread has survived this long in the general 'Weather section' and not been binned into 'climate and...'

Our basic interest is 'Weather' . Climate shift is now messing with this and makes it pertinent to have it discussed here and not in some section looking at 'future' and not what is now occurring.

Well done Mods!

Edited March 23, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

There is little doubt now in my mind that arctic ice melt is having a significant effect on the meandering jet stream.

I say this not because I think we are trying to be hood winked by governments or scientists. I say it out of sadness!

The last sunny and warm summer month in the UK was June 2010. The rest of the summer was.cool. 2011 was mainly cloudy and dry in the Midlands were I live and I don't need to remind you how terribly wet 2012 was. It wouldn't be so bad, but we had a summer nearly as poor just 5 years previously (2007).

Ok so the slack jet stream occasionally delivers us some lovely extended sunny spells, such as the warmest CET April in 350 years by some distance in 2007. The amazing thing was that this record was again smashed in April 2011 by a similar margin.

I wouldn't worry about us entering a mini ice age. Not when the USA had one of their hottest and driest summers on record in 2012 and Australia has just announced their 2013 summer has been the hottest on record. It's more likely that whilst one area of the globe is stuck under a rain cloud, another is relentlessly being baked.

I don't expect to convince everyone that man is having such a profound impact on the climate, but I think more people will start to take it seriously as the extremes roll in.

What will summer 2013 bring? Well its pot luck really where the jet stream sticks. We might have another washout 2007/2012 heaven forbid or maybe another 2011 drought (incidentally poor Scotland was lashed with rain that summer too). What I don't think is likely is that we will see a summer devoid of extremes. I pray I am proven wrong as it is a depressing thought if all I have typed above is accurate.

On a side note, I took my holidays in Inverness, Southern Ireland and Mid Wales last year. Loved all those places and people but didn't see too much sun. Desperate now for some vitamin D!

[Gray-Wolf]

I would , of course , expect all the folk espousing confident views about their upcoming L.I.A. to rise to my challenge or withdraw?

[jethro]

I would , of course , expect all the folk espousing confident views about their upcoming L.I.A. to rise to my challenge or withdraw?

Why do you have to interpret this as a challenge? This is merely a discussion.

There is a dedicated climate area on the forum with numerous dedicated threads for Arctic ice discussion, there's no need for that to dominate here. Looking at the climate area and looking at this thread it is clear that this discussion has interested more people than just those who enter into the climate area. That area of the forum can be intimidating, the general views in there are firmly entrenched on both sides of the divide - it is off putting. Any discussion which happens in there which discusses climate drivers other than AGW is instantly mis-interpreted as a challenge to the theory, rather than the discussion or interest that it is. There are threads to discuss various aspects of the weather, from model watching, historical weather, through to moaning about the weather - this is merely another one. It's an opportunity for those with an interest in the future to discuss various options - no more, no less.

There's perhaps a chance that it may stir some interest in people who will be tempted to pursue their interest further by joining in the threads in the climate area. I can't see that happening though if they are to be challenged as above or their ideas dismissed as efforts to discount and disprove the theory of AGW. There are many drivers to climate, not just one, and I for one have an interest outside the narrow perspective of manmade climate change. It would appear from this thread, others do too.

[Tamara]

Why do you have to interpret this as a challenge? This is merely a discussion.

There is a dedicated climate area on the forum with numerous dedicated threads for Arctic ice discussion, there's no need for that to dominate here. Looking at the climate area and looking at this thread it is clear that this discussion has interested more people than just those who enter into the climate area. That area of the forum can be intimidating, the general views in there are firmly entrenched on both sides of the divide - it is off putting. Any discussion which happens in there which discusses climate drivers other than AGW is instantly mis-interpreted as a challenge to the theory, rather than the discussion or interest that it is. There are threads to discuss various aspects of the weather, from model watching, historical weather, through to moaning about the weather - this is merely another one. It's an opportunity for those with an interest in the future to discuss various options - no more, no less.

There's perhaps a chance that it may stir some interest in people who will be tempted to pursue their interest further by joining in the threads in the climate area. I can't see that happening though if they are to be challenged as above or their ideas dismissed as efforts to discount and disprove the theory of AGW. There are many drivers to climate, not just one, and I for one have an interest outside the narrow perspective of manmade climate change. It would appear from this thread, others do too.

That was very well constructed, carefully and concisely worded

[Guest pjl20101]

Just been to weather action and piers corbyn has even said were in an ice age now considering the sun went into hibernation. I myself don't know whether he or other astrophysicists are going OTT or whether they have valid points.

[Methuselah]

Just been to weather action and piers corbyn has even said were in an ice age now considering the sun went into hibernation. I myself don't know whether he or other astrophysicists are going OTT or whether they have valid points.

We are indeed still in an Ice-Age, but not for the reasons PC tells us: we are in an 'interglacial'; a time where the ice-sheets retreat...Now, whether repeated episodes of increasing/decreasing ice-cover are all down to solar factors is far from proven, at least as far from proven as those thought to originate elsewhere.

[Northernlights]

There is little doubt now in my mind that arctic ice melt is having a significant effect on the meandering jet stream.

I say this not because I think we are trying to be hood winked by governments or scientists. I say it out of sadness!

The last sunny and warm summer month in the UK was June 2010. The rest of the summer was.cool. 2011 was mainly cloudy and dry in the Midlands were I live and I don't need to remind you how terribly wet 2012 was. It wouldn't be so bad, but we had a summer nearly as poor just 5 years previously (2007).

Ok so the slack jet stream occasionally delivers us some lovely extended sunny spells, such as the warmest CET April in 350 years by some distance in 2007. The amazing thing was that this record was again smashed in April 2011 by a similar margin.

I wouldn't worry about us entering a mini ice age. Not when the USA had one of their hottest and driest summers on record in 2012 and Australia has just announced their 2013 summer has been the hottest on record. It's more likely that whilst one area of the globe is stuck under a rain cloud, another is relentlessly being baked.

I don't expect to convince everyone that man is having such a profound impact on the climate, but I think more people will start to take it seriously as the extremes roll in.

What will summer 2013 bring? Well its pot luck really where the jet stream sticks. We might have another washout 2007/2012 heaven forbid or maybe another 2011 drought (incidentally poor Scotland was lashed with rain that summer too). What I don't think is likely is that we will see a summer devoid of extremes. I pray I am proven wrong as it is a depressing thought if all I have typed above is accurate.

On a side note, I took my holidays in Inverness, Southern Ireland and Mid Wales last year. Loved all those places and people but didn't see too much sun. Desperate now for some vitamin D!

A question .Do we have the same meandering Jetstream in the southern hemisphere and if we do what are the main drivers causing it there?

[Guest pjl20101]

We are indeed still in an Ice-Age, but not for the reasons PC tells us: we are in an 'interglacial'; a time where the ice-sheets retreat...Now, whether repeated episodes of increasing/decreasing ice-cover are all down to solar factors is far from proven, at least as far from proven as those thought to originate elsewhere.

Thanks for the info and have to say I agree with you word for word. It strikes me that piers has no shame in his forecasts and impossible to think he's in the wrong.

[Guest pjl20101]

The last sunny and warm summer month in the UK was June 2010. The rest of the summer was.cool. 2011 was mainly cloudy and dry in the Midlands were I live and I don't need to remind you how terribly wet 2012 was. It wouldn't be so bad, but we had a summer nearly as poor just 5 years previously (2007)

Summer 2010 actually came out warmer than average generally, but it was a very good summer for south eastern parts. The cet for July actually came out at 17.1 which was a respectable 1.1 above average and so far that is the warmest month of the decade.

[Essan]

A question .Do we have the same meandering Jetstream in the southern hemisphere and if we do what are the main drivers causing it there?

Not that I'm aware of. However, the southern jet has moved closer to the pole and it's believed that this may be linked to ozone depletion

http://news.psu.edu/story/142524/2013/01/31/research/ozone-depletion-trumps-greenhouse-gas-increase-jet-stream-shift

[Essan]

Commnents from 2006 and 2007 , wikipedia a 2000 study + a USA study ? Talking about now and going forward, not then. Not talking about events this year or new 'ice age' but trends to colder winters wetter cooler summers. Studies suggest these changes can happen in as little as 10 years.

Have you forgotten last Spring? Or the warm spring and autumn in 2011 (which here was an entirely snowless year, and the first autumn frosts didn't arrive until mid December) .

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/warmest-february-day-since-1998/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16366078

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-17059662

Where's the evidence from Britain that the growing season is getting shorter and/or spring starting later?

One year does not change a multi-decadal trend

[UV-RAY]

Have you forgotten last Spring? Or the warm spring and autumn in 2011 (which here was an entirely snowless year, and the first autumn frosts didn't arrive until mid December) .

http://metofficenews...day-since-1998/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16366078

http://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-17059662

Where's the evidence from Britain that the growing season is getting shorter and/or spring starting later?

One year does not change a multi-decadal trend

Evidence is in short supply at this moment in time, but if we look at the last five years we've seen extremes in weather types and these in themselves effect the growing season.

[Methuselah]

It 'should' be possible to disentangle the effects of the meandering PFJ from those of solar variation, I think: anomalous Jet-configurations resulting from melting Arctic ice will only affect Northern land-masses, I think; solar effects ought to be felt worldwide??

Or am I balking tollocks again...

[jethro]

It 'should' be possible to disentangle the effects of the meandering PFJ from those of solar variation, I think: anomalous Jet-configurations resulting from melting Arctic ice will only affect Northern land-masses, I think; solar effects ought to be felt worldwide??

Or am I balking tollocks again...

You'd have thought so. A quiet Sun isn't just focussed upon the NH, it shines on us all, however it seems it's impact varies around the globe. The last Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period had greater impact upon the NH, some studies claim it is barely measurable in the SH proxy records, although there is some dispute about this. What isn't disputed though is the dramatic impact it had on the NH.

Seems all things aren't equal when it comes to an active/inactive Sun.

That was very well constructed, carefully and concisely worded

Thank you.

[UV-RAY]

You'd have thought so. A quiet Sun isn't just focussed upon the NH, it shines on us all, however it seems it's impact varies around the globe. The last Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period had greater impact upon the NH, some studies claim it is barely measurable in the SH proxy records, although there is some dispute about this. What isn't disputed though is the dramatic impact it had on the NH.

Seems all things aren't equal when it comes to an active/inactive Sun.

Thank you.

Yes I would have thought low solar output would effect the jet stream in the SH in some shape or form. As for proxies I'm not keen on most of these as most seem to contradict one another, or the data is corrupted in itself. Edited March 24, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[jethro]

Yes I would have thought low solar output would effect the jet stream in the SH in some shape or form. As for proxies I'm not keen on most of these as most seem to contradict one another, or the data is corrupted in itself.

I agree proxy data isn't perfect but sometimes it's all we've got. The trouble with the SH is that empirical data is very thin on the ground when compared to the NH, simply because there's much less recorded data. Land configuration is very different down South too, plus the currents which circle Antarctica pretty much confine and isolate the cold from the rest of the continent. Up in the NH, the Arctic isn't isolated in the same way and thus changes to the jet stream can force cold to spill southwards.

[Bobby]

I think something is up, we've had some real crazy weather over the past 10 years, off the top of my head.

2003: Hottest temperature recorded, severe heatwaves, very dry

2005-2006 winter: Coldest for a decade I believe

Summer 2006: Record breaking heat, hottest month ever for many, hottest temperature ever for many, dry

April 2007: Hottest and driest April ever for many

Summer 2007: One of the wettest ever, mass flooding

Summer 2008: One of the wettest ever, mass flooding

February 2009: Most severe cold and snowy spell or some time

Summer 2009: Yet another poor summer

November 2009: One of the wettest months ever, mass flooding

Winter 2009-2010: One of the coldest winters ever, coldest ever in Scotland

Summer 2010: Poor summer for many again.

November/December 2010: Coldest, driest December ever for many, record breaking cold and snow

2011: Wettest year ever in Scotland, one of the driest ever for central/SE parts, drought

Early 2012: Severe drought in many places, hosepipe bans, the driest 18month period for many since 1975-1976

March 2012: Warmest and driest March ever for many, temperature records broken

April 2012: One of the wettest Aprils ever, mass flooding

Summer 2012: Wettest summer ever for many, mass flooding

2012: Wettest year ever for many

Later 2012: Continuing severe flooding, one of the wettest Decembers ever

March 2013: One of the coldest Marches ever, record breaking snowfalls

Probably forgot some too. That's a lot of extremes and record breaking weather in a short time, especially since 2007.

A combination of a weaker more meandering jet stream due to reduced temperature contrast between the Poles, low solar activity, loss of Arctic sea ice, sea currents being disrupted most likely. A little Ice Age, well maybe, there are similarities. If it happened before not so long ago it can happen again.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Bobby

[stewfox]

Have you forgotten last Spring? Or the warm spring and autumn in 2011 (which here was an entirely snowless year, and the first autumn frosts didn't arrive until mid December) .

Where's the evidence from Britain that the growing season is getting shorter and/or spring starting later?

One year does not change a multi-decadal trend

The question was just 'are we' not 'when did we'.

I agree we havent seen a lot of cooler summers , there is no evidence of a reduce growing season.

I look at trends rather then specfic events.

You have to remember it was only 5/6yrs ago there was a strong suggestion a sub 3c CET month couldn't happen again.

[jethro]

For anyone who is curious about what our weather may be like if the Sun (as expected) is entering a period of deep minima, here are a few links to see what happened in the past when the Sun went to sleep. The weather records aren't of the quality of modern, measured data but none the less, they are fairly comprehensive and enough to give a general idea.

When comparing the present with the past, I personally don't think we should look to the last deep Solar minima - the Dalton Minima. Times prior to the Dalton were already colder than they are today, some say we were still recovering from the earlier Maunder which suppressed temperatures for a very long time, plus Volcanic activity had been very high too. I think a more accurate idea can be gleaned by looking at the Maunder Minima, this came on the back of the Medieval Warm Period, a time when temperatures had been similar to today and according to some sources, the Arctic ice was in a similar state to modern times. The ice data however is open to question because a couple of reasons - firstly, records come from ships logs, not modern measurements and secondly, the old data has been caught up in the AGW hoohar and it's pretty impossible to decipher the bluster from fact.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

As with all things weather/climate and the past, we can get a rough idea, but not pinpoint accuracy so the above is to be taken as a general, overall look. The other forcings such as the PDO, the AMO may not have been in the same state then as now, plus we have AGW to factor into the equation.

[Methuselah]

Couldn't have put it better myself, J...

[jethro]

Couldn't have put it better myself, J...

I aim to please. And on that note, I'm off trekking the hills in order to please my dogs, I hope they appreciate just how bleeding cold I'll be afterwards!