Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Bobby]

Good lord this weather is dull. Just gray, featureless murk 24 hours a day. At least a few days ago we had some frosts.

[Stuie]

Well it is that time when I start snooping around Netweather to see if 1963 is going to happen again (would take 2010 or even early this year). I see the rules have changed somewhat, FI used to be laughed at but FI is now king and analysed? The BOM @ T240 is quite literally the bomb.

 

Anyway, there is a smidgen of something wintry at the end of next week, well if you live on the Isle of Mull. Glad to be back.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just hope the express are not at it again, with possible northerly toppler on the way, to say crap like, worst snow in years coming up!

 

then you'll most likely have Gibby saying -12 uppers and rain, if toppler happens

[Stuie]

Just hope the express are not at it again, with possible northerly toppler on the way, to say crap like, worst snow in years coming up!

 

then you'll most likely have Gibby saying -12 uppers and rain, if toppler happens

 

Do you actually think the Express has followers that believe myths like Fox news? I do. Ironically if something wintry happens next week then the Express would probably have a headline saying "We told you it was coming" (in June)

[ribster]

Far too fraught in the model thread, post Christmas the real fun and games will begin...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It's the same in the mod thread every year - some people saying any cold spell won't last long and some people saying it's gonna be a mega sustained freeze, my advice is that 90% of people in the mod thread don't really know what they are talking about and it's all pure speculation without any real knowledge of what is going to happen. How ever the meto have real knowledge and lots of data so I  would listen to them and what there forecasters say plus the odd half a dozen "experts" that do post in the mod thread.

[ribster]

Could have guessed what the model thread would be full of following the 12zs, usual know it all posts 'told you so', which there is no justification for yet. A lot will have egg on their faces by the end of winter I feel. The way some go on, they should be working at the met office, as you say, there are at most half a dozen posters worth paying any attention to. But as we know, it's all about footfall.

Edited November 28, 2013 by ribster

[Tony27]

just surprised how busy the mod thread is about a possible northerly toppler in FI, this forum will crash if -16 uppers and blizzards are shown at T96 and even then it can all go pete tong i just can't be bothered with all this any more but i always get sucked in if good cold charts are shown

[NickyB]

It's the same every year LOL. Compulsive and repulsive at the same time haha.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS... A typical now you see it, now you don't case. Grrrrrrrrrr    

[conor123]

The pessimist in me is thinking the GFS 12z is actually 100% right, the northerly will roar through Scandinavia and into Eastern Europe whilst we sit in this bland, grotty, boring, nothingness until at least Mid December! there's just something so off with the weather this Autumn, EVERY exciting event has turned into nothingness.

[Steve C]

Express headline tomorrow about a three month freeze...

 

That's really put the kibosh on the cold spell.

[snowblizzard]

I'm no expert but have learnt so much over the past few years about how the atmosphere is likely to behave, weather patterns, etc.

 

In fact, we know far too much now and pretty much know when it won't actually happen.

 

Whereas, in the 60's, 70's & 80's we had very little idea what was happening 'upstream' and it was often a complete surprise to wake up to snow cover.

 

In other words, technology has eliminated the element of surprise!

 

This forum is brilliant and it's exciting to follow, but there's an awful lot of hope casting!

 

I just have a gut feeling that the NH weather pattern will be different this year compared with the last 4 winters.

 

So, less likely that we will see severe cold and wintry conditions, especially in the Southern half of the country.

 

Although there does appear to be plenty of bitterly cold air bottled-up around Northern latitudes.

 

I absolutely love the very cold severe snowy weather but if I was a betting man I'd be putting my money on a 'very average' British winter this time around.

 

I really hope my gut feeling is wrong.

Edited November 29, 2013 by snowblizzard

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The models dont look great but i tell you what i want to moan about the daily express.

they are an utter disgrace.

and so is madden

[BornFromTheVoid]

[mistyqueen]

Hear! Hear!

[Average Joe]

It's because they only ever look for or show charts for weather which they like!!

[Methuselah]

It's because they only ever look for or show charts for weather which they like!!

And when their 'forecasts' go pear-shaped, they blame the models rather than the weather. How perverse? 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Don't know why people get wound up over the miseries in the mod thread, just put them on ignore and you don't have to read there drivel. Makes for a happy and contented life

[The Post-modern Winter]

I think people forget that the second time ian brown signed up to this site it was under a pseudonym with the initials TMW (the even larger teapot) before people recognised it was him. He often gets away with his comments in the MOD thread as people defend his right to present his interpretation of the models, however I think the way he signed up to the site the second time suggests some sort of bias to his old theories or motive to annoy.

[Methuselah]

I think people forget that the second time ian brown signed up to this site it was under a pseudonym with the initials TMW (the modern winter) before people recognised it was him. He often gets away with his comments in the MOD thread as people defend his right to present his interpretation of the models, however I think the way he signed up to the site the second time suggests some sort of bias to his old theories or motive to annoy.

Well, why shouldn't he 'stick to his theories'?

 

I love cold, snowy weather; but I don't like being hyped into a frenzy of expectation about things that seldom verify... 

[UV-RAY]

Well, why shouldn't he 'stick to his theories'?

 

I love cold, snowy weather; but I don't like being hyped into a frenzy of expectation about things that seldom verify... 

But you take climate models at face value.

[The Post-modern Winter]

Well, why shouldn't he 'stick to his theories'?

 

I love cold, snowy weather; but I don't like being hyped into a frenzy of expectation about things that seldom verify... 

Im not saying he shouldn't stick to his theories however people who believe the moon landing was faked and that Elvis isn't dead often stick to theirs, doesnt mean they are not a) completely wrong, b) completely mad, c) rather annoying, d) using such nonsense in the face of evidence suggesting otherwise to annoy.

[Methuselah]

But you take climate models at face value.

How would you know that? 

[NickyB]

I'm not normally one for posting and certainly not a pessimist .... But I've got that awful feeling that this deep cold will end up much further east. Hope very much that I'm wrong.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Chill Pill