Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Extent wise, I think we can dismiss any notion of beating the 2012 minimum this year. There is a chance of catching 2007, but something in the mid 4s looks most likely at this stage.

 

The current pattern and how it effects the extent drops over the next few days will be important to watch. The large area drops from the storm damage should begin to appear tomorrow on CT, with a fall of over 100k likely. After that, a strong cross polar flow is forecast on the ECM and GFS, with strong winds from the Laptev/East Siberian Sea across to the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland. As there is a lot of quite low concentration ice right across the central Arctic, we could see a large amount of compaction and ridging from this flow, which may maintain high extent losses for the 5 days.

All the while, warm air looks like remaining over the Beaufort Sea and the Canadian Archipelago for the next few days, causing increased melt in these areas.

The water profiles are showing increased mixing of the warmer deep waters with the surface due to the storm, this will increase the bottom melt despite the cooling air temperatures. The storm/low pressure seems to wax and wane over the next week, so there may be further periods of wind damage and mixing of the ocean waters. Should this continue beyond the next week, then catching 2007 becomes more likely, but we'll have to wait and see

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like both the north west passage and northern passage may become open over the next few days.

 

With the northern passage, the ice bridge connecting Severnaya Zemlya to the Russian mainland has been blocking access between the Kara and Laptev sea over the last few weeks. The ice bridge is still clearly visible on the map below.

 

The bridge has been slowly melting, but it looks as though the winds are going to blow the sea ice from the northern side of Severnaya Zemlya towards the north pole, allowing the ice bridge to be bypassed. This can be seen on today's MODIS image of the region.

 

 

The sea ice will likely get pushed towards the N. Pole over the next few days, allowing for the opening of the northern passage.

 

With the north west passage, the Canadian Archipelago has seen some very warm temperatures over the last week, with a quick melt occurring.

There is currently just a small amount of ice, perhaps just a few thousand km2 left to melt to allow the NW passage to be traversed. These small areas can be seen on the MODIS image below, from yesterday.

 

 

                   -                                    -------------------------------------------------------

 

Cryosphere Today has just record a drop of 108k. This takes 2012 below the annual daily minimum of 20 out of the last 34 year, and within 350k of every other minimum before 2007.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Nice to see you still popping in here BFTV! I am enjoying your info over in the Sea ice Forum though!

 

Cocentration Fig's are looking a bit dire post storm and i have to wonder how much of that ice has the legs to get through to re-freeze? The area beyond 80N, which should have the protection of re-freeze earlieast, looks the worse off and the areas where re-freeze won't begin until mid sept might still find itself becoming very thin by the end of the season?

 

The real messeage of the season has to be just how poorly the ice has done even with a near perfect 'ice retention storm' for the whole of the season? What are we to expect should we face a season more conducive to melt?

 

Sadly , as with surface temps globally, I think we will face a barrage of blog comments about 'recovery' up until the next major drop in the basin.......

[Interitus]

 

Interesting source Knocker, they have some good articles on the opening of the northern sea route (NSR) -

 

a total of 46 vessels in 2012 sailed transit along the NSR. Five years ago, the number was zero. In 2009, two ships, the "Beluga Fraternity" and "Beluga Foresight", made the trans-continental journey. Then, in 2011, the shipments picked pace with as many as 41 vessels.

 

As previously reported, the extent of sea ice along the route is below average and vessels are sailing parts of the route without icebreaker escort. A total of 270 vessels have so far this year received permits to sail along the Northern Sea Route, a fivefold increase from 2012.

 

http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/northern-sea-route-comes-life-07-08

 

 

Another article showing the opening up and potential importance of the the NSRs particularly for Chinese trade which could cut shipping times between Asian and European ports by about one-third.

 

 - http://siberiantimes.com/business/casestudy/news/a-revolution-in-trade-to-europe-is-beginning-on-the-roof-of-siberia/

 

But one quote by a Cosco shipping spokesman was particularly ironic -

 

'More importantly, the new route will offer favourable opportunities to all Cosco Group's shipping business during the currently sluggish period because it will cut operating costs, fuel consumption and carbon emissions'

[stewfox]

 

Cocentration Fig's are looking a bit dire post storm and i have to wonder how much of that ice has the legs to get through to re-freeze? The area beyond 80N, which should have the protection of re-freeze earlieast, looks the worse off and the areas where re-freeze won't begin until mid sept might still find itself becoming very thin by the end of the season?

 

The real messeage of the season has to be just how poorly the ice has done even with a near perfect 'ice retention storm' for the whole of the season? What are we to expect should we face a season more conducive to melt?

 

Sadly , as with surface temps globally, I think we will face a barrage of blog comments about 'recovery' up until the next major drop in the basin.......

 

No one can talk of recovery ? but what I would like to see is in the coming winter is temp above 80N far closer to the long term average or even below. A common theme of recent winters is for the temps to be way above average for the first 50/100 days of the year which must inhibit volume growth ?

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Geordiesnow]

The real messeage of the season has to be just how poorly the ice has done even with a near perfect 'ice retention storm' for the whole of the season? What are we to expect should we face a season more conducive to melt?

 

 

But its been mentioned in the past, no matter what the weather does, the ice will melt because of the thinner young ice pack? So with that in mind, despite some good weather conditons for ice retention, deep low pressure systems can do damage to the ice cover than in the past due to the thinness of the ice pack so with all this in mind, are we surprised too see that the ice pack is looking fragile in parts? Coupled with last year record low ice extent by quite a distance then it seems the ice is trying it darn hardest to hold on, but will it make it to September, interesting times ahead. 

 

It has been mentioned in the past, for any chance for sea ice to recover, it will either have to be global temperatures dropping and/or good ice retention conditions in the summer season especially for the next few years. This year has been pretty good for cold temperatures but we have seen a couple of deep lows and we are still attracting very hot upper air temps into the basin, especially around the Beaufort Sea so it has not been totally perfect. 

 

My other concern is the ice retreat on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, yes ideally you don't want the fram express into full swing but the lack of Northerly winds around Svalbard has been noticeable in the last year or so and the edge of the ice is way past Svalbard at the moment so if this trend continues then could it be possible in the years to come we may see the North pole melting from the Atlantic side of the Arctic first? 

 

Still, despite the good weather conditions, the melt season is not yet over and we are seeing on the crysophere today quite low concentration spots appearing near the pole where the poor ice conditions have lasted all summer, could there be one last sting in the tail to this melt season or will the ice cling on? Interesting last 3-4 weeks of the melt season to go I feel. 

[stewfox]

IJIS holding up well, with some recent small drops

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

30% extent 2nd best in last 9 years

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

 

Temps above 80n remain below average

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Could we see a min above 5m ?

[barrel1234]

The basin has been largely without southerly winds so far this melt, however looks like there could be some milder air heading into the basin in the next couple of weeks from the look of the gfs charts.

 

   But who knows if this year will mark a step-up from the losses in recent years... we still have to get this melt season out of the way yet and with the fragile state of the pack I dont think we are out of the woods yet regarding ice retention, although it would have to be something pretty catastrophic to get us down to 2012 levels.

[Interitus]

Conditions have favoured ice retention but because the pre-existing state is poor the pack does look potentially vulnerable to a late surge of melt.

Very roughly taking the ice concentration this time last year, the 70% level marks the approximate final extent a month later

 

12/08/2012 - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20120812.jpg

12/09/2012 - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20120912.jpg

 

Looking at the current levels, there is a greater amount of sub 70% concentration than last year - this may be due to there being more ice overall, but shows that unfavourable conditions could still make quite an impact yet at lower latitudes away from the Greenland/Northern Canada/North Pole stronghold. Interesting is the rift in a line between Svalbard and Wrangel Island which if opened up could form several large ice islands. Melting should increase with a greater periphery/area ratio.

 

12/08/2013 - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

Edited August 14, 2013 by Interitus

[Gray-Wolf]

I just don't know what to make of things at all? In past year the folk who deny anything 'odd' occuring in the Arctic have been the first to point out how the record melt would aid ice regrowth come seasons end? Does that mean we should now expect slower regrowth come seasons end ( and continued bottom melt of the older surviving ice for longer?)

 

The longer I study the Arctic the more it resmbles my monica with everthing turned upside down from what it used to be!

 

I have no doubt that in the end all the ice will go one year and then we will have a very novel state with all the pack being FY ice come the next melt season. We are told that this will mean ever earlier 'melt out dates' and the fate of the Arctic will be sealed but how will we get to that point?

 

Has last years record melt aided in the changes that have been so benificial to the ice this summer or is it just 'natural variability to blame? If it's all 'natural then we are closing in on the next 'perfect storm' year and the end of Arctic ice, if it is a pattern shift instigated by last years record low then what are we to expect?

[VillagePlank]

I have no doubt that in the end all the ice will go one year

 

Nothing new. It happened during Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum. Got very close to it early last century, too. Quite exciting that it might actually happen in our lifetimes

Edited August 14, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd like to see the papers showing this Sparks as only last week we saw the first reports from the korean/japanese team that appear to have evidence that a continental ice sheet covered the eurasian side throughout that period( helping keep the submerged permafrosts out of the equation) and the sea level hikes had nothing to do with Greenland melt and all to do with East Antarctic ice sheet losses?

 

It would appear that it is tied in with the earths orbit allowing for summers that are hotter but northern hemisphere winters that are colder? I can'trecall whether it is our 'angle of tilt' , our orbital shape ( circular or egg shaped) or when we are closest to the sun ( Jan at the present) or some odd combination of all three?

 

What is becoming obvious is that the southern hemisphere bore the brunt of the last thermal max and the north remained cooler with attendent ice sheets?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nothing new. It happened during Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum. Got very close to it early last century, too. Quite exciting that it might actually happen in our lifetimes

 

Did it?

[VillagePlank]

Did it?

 

Sorry checked my facts; serves me right for getting them from a blog post. Emphatically, no, it didn't. It dipped, but nothing like today.

[Gray-Wolf]

Should further study give a more detailed picture of the Siberian/eurasian ice sheet in that side of the Arctic ocean it would surely have big implications for the formation ,and former stability, ofthe submerged permafrosts there?

 

If part of their formation included an ice sheet sat on top of them then they needn't have spent the time submerged that we had believed them too? Could it be that they have only seen submesrsion since the end of the last glacial period and so this current meltdown is the first time the deposits have suffered in this way?

 

I know the deposits are 'shallow' and so past ocean ice cover will have helped keep temps low but I can see how they could have remained so pristine if 1,200m of ice sat on top of them better than periods of submersion and freezing?

 

It does , of course, mean that we are in uncharted territory insofar as the stability ofthe carbon reserves stored there and current measurements of losses, and their acceleration, does not bode well for our immediate future.

[keithlucky]

Coldest Arctic summer on record ,we should see  refreeze in North Pole in the next few days.

â†

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

remarkable to see us in the top ten of all time lowest ice levels then keith? Do you think something might be going on?

[thetonynator]

remarkable to see us in the top ten of all time lowest ice levels then keith? Do you think something might be going on?

I imagine after last year it would take several seasons of record cold in the high arctic to have much of a positive effect on sea ice.

[Interitus]

 

Coldest Arctic summer on record ,we should see  refreeze in North Pole in the next few days.

â†

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

 

 

It's a sign of the warming that the arctic is now considered to start at 80°N.

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Coldest Arctic summer on record ,we should see  refreeze in North Pole in the next few days.

â†

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

 

 

Only for north of 80N, from that single source and with the caveat that there are many issues with the DMI record that cause it to record lower temperatures nowadays, and that warm pulses won't get recorded at the surface in summer unless north of 80N becomes ice free.

Link 1

Link 2

 

 

Temperature north of 80N and 925hPa, where the summer temperature is not capped by the melting point of ice.

 

 

Anyway, I'd say a daily minimum extent of close to 5 million km2, and an area of around 3.5 million km2 is looking most likely at the moment, so similar to 2009. The strong +ve dipole forecast has been replaced with a strong -ve dipole pattern that will likely spread the sea ice out further toward Beaufort and Chukchi, reducing the extent losses overall. It's harder to say what effect this will have on the area and volume though.

[Interitus]

The area north of 80° is only 18.4% of the Arctic.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The area north of 80° is only 18.4% of the Arctic.

 

Very true, but it doesn't matter. I've corrected him about claiming anything for the Arctic based on just 80N many times, but it doesn't change anything.

 

Most of Keith's posts here are just copied and pasted, without reference, from Steve Goddard's extreme right/climate denial blog. He's the denier that's so outlandishly bad, he doesn't use his real name and is kept away from most other climate denial sites!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Keith is the climate thread equivalent of Yamkin!

 

Though I do have a soft spot for snow ramper Yamkin 

[stewfox]

The area north of 80° is only 18.4% of the Arctic.

 

Where does that figure come from the whole artic ocean ??

 

Its interesting although the temp profiles (80N +) have their well know draw backs (for accuracy) we are still seeing large areas of open water on the west side of the artic above 80N despite  temps being well below the average for extended periods.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

 

We have had a number of favourable conditions for ice retention this year but without the ice thickness its largely academic.

 

As GW stated each year we will have to have 6/7 things in our favour to just 'hold on'.

Edited August 16, 2013 by stewfox

[Geordiesnow]

I always been told that for the Arctic to "recover" we have to have succession of Arctic summers being below average. This year appears to of been below average but whilst 2012 had average weather overall, am I right in saying that air temperatures were still above average overall? I know Beaufort last year was very warm whereas this year is much colder. 

 

This year whilst weather conditions have been good for ice retention, we have had 2/3 Arctic cyclones which caused damage to the ice so the weather conditions have not been totally perfect and we did have that high pressure period during July but after last years lows(and bearing in mind ice extent was lowest on record during the Autumn months also) then if the 2013 extent can end up around the 2010 mark, then it could be the start of a "recovery" or it could be another false dawn. 

 

Still, looking at the ice thicknesses charts then its hard to be hopeful for much of a recovery but I suppose we have to start from somewhere.