Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Geordiesnow]

It's not over yet and it's neck and neck with 2009 and within reach of 2008 and 2010.

 

Indeed and how come there is no comment on the record ice retreat in the Atlantic side of the Arctic from folk and with September can give stronger lows and tighter pressure gradient... if we see a mild southerly in the next few weeks... how close would that ice edge be to the North Pole! 

[MidAtlanticob]

Indeed and how come there is no comment on the record ice retreat in the Atlantic side of the Arctic from folk and with September can give stronger lows and tighter pressure gradient... if we see a mild southerly in the next few weeks... how close would that ice edge be to the North Pole! 

 

Can you post a reference to this anomaly?

[knocker]

It's not over yet and it's neck and neck with 2009 and within reach of 2008 and 2010.

Edited August 29, 2013 by knocker

[4wd]

No recent year fell that much from now on
It will be similar to 2009

[4wd]

This animation shows concentration building and little thin ice round the edge likely to suddenly melt out
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icedrift_anim/index.uk.php

[joggs]

It just goes to show year to year that conditions in the melt season can be against or for ice retention.I thouht when the amo goes cold the arctic retains ice better than antartic and vice versa?.Seems that way?!?!?!?.

Edited August 29, 2013 by joggs

[joggs]

Still made up with how antarctic is going!.

[stewfox]

Indeed and how come there is no comment on the record ice retreat in the Atlantic side of the Arctic from folk and with September can give stronger lows and tighter pressure gradient... if we see a mild southerly in the next few weeks... how close would that ice edge be to the North Pole! 

 

Its been mention several times how the west side has taken a battering and the east has held up relatively better.

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

 

I see a number of sites haven't updated for a few days including IJIS my favourite for simplicity

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[knocker]

Still made up with how antarctic is going!.

 

Antarctic sea ice extent for August 19 is 18.70 million square kilometers (7.22 million square miles), a record or near-record high level (August 19, 2010 was similarly high), led by unusually extensive ice in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross seas, and in the western Indian Ocean sector. Climate conditions since June have been variable, but the most recent surge in ice growth has occurred during a period of unusually high pressure over the center of the continent, resulting in a slowing of the circumpolar winds, warm winter conditions for the central ice sheet areas (Vostok Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station both had periods of spring-like -30s earlier in the month), and cold conditions in the Bellingshausen, allowing ice to grow extensively there.

[stewfox]

Back to the Artic

 

IJIS showing a 38k gain for yesterday

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

 

Could 5,341,250 be the min on 28/8/2013 ?

 

We will know in the next few days.

Edited August 30, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.8.29.2013.gif

 

Now melt season draws to a close it's time to think about the energy held within the basin (above and beyond what was 'normal' with a healthy pack) that needs to be pumped back into the atmosphere before re-freeze can complete.

 

We have seen DMI tracking low temps all summer and had that pointed out to us by certain posters and I have to wonder whether these updates will continue once the big positive anoms arrive?

[4wd]

It was below average before summer, it's been below average since about April and before that looks rather normal either side of average..
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

Ice does not need -30C to form.

[be cause]

 

 

 

It was below average before summer, it's been below average since about April and before that looks rather normal either side of average..
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

Ice does not need -30C to form.

Surely it would be more accurate to say it's been above average for the first 4 months of the year (excepting 2 weeks in Feb.) .. and below average since the beginning of May ..

Edited August 31, 2013 by be cause

[Interitus]

Back to the Artic

 

IJIS showing a 38k gain for yesterday

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

 

Could 5,341,250 be the min on 28/8/2013 ?

 

We will know in the next few days.

 

No, down to 5,333,594 on that measure now. Still a couple of weeks to go I suspect, the high resolution images show a highly fractured pack on the Eurasian side which will be prone to further melt or more importantly changes through wind compaction - ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/Arc_latest_yesterday_AMSR2_3.125km.png

[oldsnowywizard]

Gw the DMi site also has a good SST anomaly link with animation available... It shows actually that over the last two weeks the warm SSTs have cooled to normal levels in most areas except the typical barent sea. There is much less dark ocean to absorb the heat this summer as well so lets see what impact that would have if any? I had fully expected with the record low ice extent last summer and all that heat needing to escape, that we would have been on for another record low this summer... Goes to show it isn't down to just one variable up there ...

[Gray-Wolf]

The whole AGW thing is not down to just 'one variable' no matter how hard the climate misleader's bang on about CO2! Any 'novel' forcing is set amidst a plethora of other, more 'normal ', forcings and ,to date, those forcings will have the greater influence?

 

The worry has to be that 'average' summers have managed the post 07' sweep of ice min figures whilst a 'cool' , ice retentive, summer can still only bring us an ice min. within the post 07' data set?

 

With the 'change' to the northern hemisphere jet patterns this summer ( compared to an 'average value of post 07' positioning?) I need ask " will this pattern persist as did the post 07' suite of 'average' summers or will this years melt season see saw the Jet into a differing configuration next season?

 

I'd kinda hope the 2012 forcings hold sway as this summer ( here) has been a peach compared to the rest of the post 07' summers!!!

 

Should ice levels not impact jet positioning then we are inching ever closer to the next 'perfect melt storm' ( studies post 07' showed they came around every 10 to 20 yrs with the two before 07' having 10yr spacings) so I'm concerned either way with current Jet convolutions putting the permafrost regions in jeopardy with high jet ridges burning the tundra in both Canada and Siberia...... damned if you do and damned if you don't....... 

[stewfox]

Gw the DMi site also has a good SST anomaly link with animation available... It shows actually that over the last two weeks the warm SSTs have cooled to normal levels in most areas except the typical barent sea. There is much less dark ocean to absorb the heat this summer as well so lets see what impact that would have if any? I had fully expected with the record low ice extent last summer and all that heat needing to escape, that we would have been on for another record low this summer... Goes to show it isn't down to just one variable up there ...

 

Any 'surplus heat' would have gone last Autumn , it wouldn't have been 'locked in' up there for the winter ??.

 

My prediction for the summer end isn't far out.

 

As some have said the season isn't over yet , we had a small increase but some what of a larger decline yesterday.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

I was around 4.9m early June but think around 5.15m for season end (using IJIS 15%) others will favour other charts.

Edited September 1, 2013 by stewfox

[oldsnowywizard]

Not sure I said it was locked up there more suggesting that more heat , later cooling , later ice formation , thinner ice formation ... Quicker melt ...

[Gray-Wolf]

Am I correct in thinking we may see a pretty deep L.P. battering the Atlantic side of the pack in a weeks time or is it way to early to moot such?

 

It would be interesting to see how this would impact seasons end would it not?

[knocker]

Quote from Jason Box,

 

June and July Arctic GISTEMP air temperatures were below 1951-80 average. Why? Abnormal low 500 hPa pressure decreased heat exchange

[Polar Maritime]

Thought i would pop this in here from the BBC, talking about this years melt...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23904997

[oldsnowywizard]

Finally DMI pops its head up above the average line... as we head through the week the cold air starts to return over larger areas of the arctic.. with SSTs not being as warm.-- (to my eye based on anomaly charts) and a colder arctic being reported we have one of the best starts to the winter up North... Is this a new trend? will there be a "recovery" ? who knows but it is fascinating stuff... with all the bad news over the last few years it is nice to have at least for now some positives

[joggs]

When the amo turns cold phase in the near future before reverting back to warm,from what ive read about,it aids ice extension ooooop north.Another positive amongst alot of negatives!

Just to add its usually(amo)stays in a phase around 20 years.

[stewfox]

Pleasing to see how well the East of the artic has held up this year with some areas showing ice extent  above the long term average.

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.png

 

Another cool summer next year and we would be above the 2000s average at least.

[Interitus]

Pleasing to see how well the East of the artic has held up this year with some areas showing ice extent  above the long term average.

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.png

 

Another cool summer next year and we would be above the 2000s average at least.

 

Not as simple as that, also depends on the refreeze this winter and even then recovery is probably unlikely for western Eurasia for some time. Papers such as this from last year - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00466.1?journalCode=clim show the retreat for the Barents sea at least is in large part due to the inflow of Atlantic water.

The flow rate between Norway and Svalbard peaks at maybe up to a km/day http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/54/3/310.full.pdf.

Meanwhile the temperature in this area on the Norwegian island of Hopen has been a full 4 degrees above average over the last year http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Hopen/statistics.html so that is a lot of warmer than normal Atlantic water to flush out of the system.