Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Interitus]

Where does that figure come from the whole artic ocean ??

 

 

 

The 18.4% is the area north of 80° as a percentage of the Arctic i.e. north of 66.56° - can be derived from area of a spherical cap of unit radius (ignoring slightly oblate earth)...... 2π(1 - cos(90-latitude))

 

 

 

I always been told that for the Arctic to "recover" we have to have succession of Arctic summers being below average. This year appears to of been below average but whilst 2012 had average weather overall, am I right in saying that air temperatures were still above average overall? I know Beaufort last year was very warm whereas this year is much colder. 

 

This year whilst weather conditions have been good for ice retention, we have had 2/3 Arctic cyclones which caused damage to the ice so the weather conditions have not been totally perfect and we did have that high pressure period during July but after last years lows(and bearing in mind ice extent was lowest on record during the Autumn months also) then if the 2013 extent can end up around the 2010 mark, then it could be the start of a "recovery" or it could be another false dawn. 

 

Still, looking at the ice thicknesses charts then its hard to be hopeful for much of a recovery but I suppose we have to start from somewhere.

 

Catch 22, cyclones can damage the ice but also kept the temperatures down and limited insolation.

 

Anyway here's a couple of NOAA reanalysis charts of surface daily temperature anomaly for the Arctic this summer so far -

 

North of 80° temperatures have been below normal, not greatly but in agreement with DMI graphs

 

 

 

But across the Arctic as a whole it is a very different picture. The cooler ocean areas do seem to show some correlation to the ice concentration charts.

 

[Isolated Frost]

To have one of the coldest Arctic summers, but with the one of the lowest ice areas (and more importantly, volume levels) is quite worrying, keith?

Also- the ice extent looks less across E Greenland and better across N Russia; are there any explanations for that, or just variation?

[Gael_Force]

I'm just pleased to see the Arctic can still have a cold summer; it will take many similar to reverse the trend of the last decade.

[BornFromTheVoid]

To have one of the coldest Arctic summers, but with the one of the lowest ice areas (and more importantly, volume levels) is quite worrying, keith?

Also- the ice extent looks less across E Greenland and better across N Russia; are there any explanations for that, or just variation?

 

So far this summer, the pressure gradient across the Fram Strait (from NE Greenland and Svalbard) has been much reduced, with strong southerlies over and to the east of Svalbard. This has reduced the southward flow of ice all summer. Similar occurred in the years around 2001, when there was practically no ice in the Greenland Sea by summers end.

This is part of a reverse dipole pattern, the first -ve June and July combined dipole since 2004. This pattern tends to drive sea ice more toward the Bering Strait rather than the Fram Strait, which spreads the sea ice around the Pacific side of the Arctic more, whilst reducing export through Fram

 

JJA SLP from 2007 to 2012 .............. ............. ..SLP June 1 to August 14 2013

 

The storms this year, while not as strong as last August, have helped to disperse to the sea ice further, increasing the extent and to a lesser degree, the area.

 

The NSIDC mentioned the effect of storms on their latest update

 

 

Summer storms

 

Summer is the stormiest season over the central Arctic Ocean, but the situation can vary greatly within a month (as has been the case for July 2013), from month to month, and year to year. The summer storms in this region can occasionally be quite strong and there has been some discussion that, like hurricanes, strong Arctic storms should be named, perhaps drawing on the Inuit language. Last August, a cyclone in the region attained a central pressure as low as 964 hPa, with attendant strong winds. As just discussed, summers characterized by stormy conditions tend to end up with more sea ice than summers characterized by high pressure. However, the effects of an individual strong storm can be complex. It appears that the August 2012 storm was attended by a modest acceleration in the pace of summer ice loss. While the middle of July 2013 also saw a storm over the central Arctic Ocean with a central pressure of 977 hPa, this year’s event has not led to a strong ice loss.

 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/08/a-month-of-two-halves-and-no-hole/

 

 

If we are seeing a trend change toward a few years with this kind of pattern with a combination of colder winters, we could see sea ice back up towards the pre 2007 levels easily enough. But, it will take many more years to rebuild the thickness and so the ice would still be much more vulnerable to strong melt conditions than the pre 2007 pack was.

[Interitus]

I'm just pleased to see the Arctic can still have a cold summer; it will take many similar to reverse the trend of the last decade.

 

It hasn't though, see the temperature chart above.

[Polar Maritime]

Thought i would pop this in here, some beautiful scenes from the Arctic while NASA gather data..

 

[stewfox]

It hasn't though, see the temperature chart above.

 

 We are looking at the high artic and artic ice most of which particularly in the summer months will fall within 80N.

[4wd]

The Dmi temperature graph is not real data but a sort of estimate based on synoptics etc.It is still of value to compare one year with another, and without doubt this has been a cold summer in the far north.It is also noteworthy that the graph has hardly reached average temperatures for months now.

[jonboy]

 

To have one of the coldest Arctic summers, but with the one of the lowest ice areas (and more importantly, volume levels) is quite worrying, keith?Also- the ice extent looks less across E Greenland and better across N Russia; are there any explanations for that, or just variation?

I'm not sure why you think this is worrying as I would not expect anything different. Unless there had been a record breaking cold summer you would expect one of the lowest ice extents given the parless state of the ice at the start of the melt season. As we enter solar minimum over the next 5/6 years and given present predictions for cycle 25 to be even lower than this cycle I beleieve we are at the start of recovery.Some will no doubt ask why this hasn't happened yet but in my opinion there is a lag as it takes time for the ocean currents to cool sufficeintly to allow proper ice volume to grow in a given season 

[Interitus]

 We are looking at the high artic and artic ice most of which particularly in the summer months will fall within 80N.

 

There is plenty of ice south of 80° - http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_visual.png - Environment Canada charts on 12/08 reported some 9/10-10/10 concentration as far south as 70-71° - http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=WIS56CT

The majority of the extent anomalies are south of 80° - http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png

 

It is the lower latitudes which will be more prone to melting over the remain month of the season, focusing on north of 80° gives a very limited picture.

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like both NSIDC and Crysophere charts are now picking up on what I been fearing at the since June is that the poor state of the ice conditions to the East of the North Pole is now fully melting and open water for proper is developing. And you got to say conditions look pretty poor in this area for the foreseeable future so I think there is the real chance we could see EXTREMELY low ice extent on the Atlantic side of the Arctic and I think there is a good chance of seeing an ice free pole this year unfortunately. 

 

If weather patterns continue as they are, we could see quite a strange Arctic sea ice pattern of very low ice extent on the Atlantic side but reasonable ice extent on the Pacific side of the Arctic. 

 

Either way, its an area myself and i know GW/BFTV has been concerned about and it looks like the messed up ice in this area from the June cyclone is going to bite us in the backside. 

[knocker]

The figure shows a map with daily updated sea Ice coverage on the northern hemisphere. The scale goes from white that is 100% ice cover, to black that defines the ice edge. The blue colour indicates coastal lines. The melt season begins when the sunlight intensifies in the spring, and surface temperatures (see the temperature plot above) rises to above zero.

The ice covered area is calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 15% are classified as ice, and below 15% as open water.

http://polarportal.org/en/arctic-sea-ice/nbsp/sea-ice-temperature/

[Isolated Frost]

So far this summer, the pressure gradient across the Fram Strait (from NE Greenland and Svalbard) has been much reduced, with strong southerlies over and to the east of Svalbard. This has reduced the southward flow of ice all summer. Similar occurred in the years around 2001, when there was practically no ice in the Greenland Sea by summers end.

This is part of a reverse dipole pattern, the first -ve June and July combined dipole since 2004. This pattern tends to drive sea ice more toward the Bering Strait rather than the Fram Strait, which spreads the sea ice around the Pacific side of the Arctic more, whilst reducing export through Fram

 

JJA SLP from 2007 to 2012 .............. ............. ..SLP June 1 to August 14 2013

 

The storms this year, while not as strong as last August, have helped to disperse to the sea ice further, increasing the extent and to a lesser degree, the area.

 

The NSIDC mentioned the effect of storms on their latest update

 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/08/a-month-of-two-halves-and-no-hole/

 

 

If we are seeing a trend change toward a few years with this kind of pattern with a combination of colder winters, we could see sea ice back up towards the pre 2007 levels easily enough. But, it will take many more years to rebuild the thickness and so the ice would still be much more vulnerable to strong melt conditions than the pre 2007 pack was.

Cheers!

From a more IMBY pov- the reversal of +ve blocking heights in Greenland and Svalbard/NW Canada this year doesn't bode as well for the upcoming winter-

 

thanks for all the work Interitus, BFTV, GS and G-W etc, really appreciated

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice grows 8 yrs of losses in one season

Edited August 18, 2013 by keithlucky

[Nights King]

Arctic ice grows 8 yrs of losses in one season

 

 

What is going on that black line though keith? Are we at 2005 (red line) or 2011 (yellow line) doesn't seem that clear to me?

[keithlucky]

What is going on that black line though keith? Are we at 2005 (red line) or 2011 (yellow line) doesn't seem that clear to me?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

[Nights King]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

 

 

Well I know you didn't use paint shop now  

 

Maybe some of GW's multi year ice escaped the last meltathon and has just "relaxed" over a larger area?

Edited August 18, 2013 by mullender83

[keithlucky]

Well I know you didn't use paint shop now  

 

Maybe some of GW's multi year ice escaped the last meltathon and has just "relaxed" over a larger area?

Snow and ice have come early this  year in the Arctic low solar activity has now began to take effect in the Arctic http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=WWAK81PAFG&type=public

Edited August 18, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Just like all the years between 2007 and 2012, this is a recovery year...

[Nights King]

Snow and ice have come early this year low solar activity has now began to take effect http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=WWAK81PAFG&type=public

 

 

I remain unconvinced to be honest either way but it is interesting to see a buck in the trend this year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic ice grows 8 yrs of losses in one season

 

[Nights King]

 

 

If you look at the same graph for todays update it is close to going above 2006 now..

 

What is causing this?

Edited August 19, 2013 by mullender83

[4wd]

If you look at the same graph for todays update it is close to going above 2006 now..

 

What is causing this?

It's colder than normal.

[4wd]

Well that graph from the not-at-all-activist-or-nazis-really-we're-not SKS stormtroopers suggests no ice by about next year.

I think it is mischievous, and assumes recent reduction in Arctic Ice is directly linked to CO2 - which is not the case.

[BornFromTheVoid]

If you look at the same graph for todays update it is close to going above 2006 now..

 

What is causing this?

 

Lack of exceptional warmth this summer in the Arctic has reduced in situ melting, a +ve AO/NAO and reverse dipole have increased the cloudiness and reduced the export of sea ice out of Fram Strait and a number of moderate storms have spread the ice out much further, which increases the extent and to a lesser degree, the area.

 

There are many different graphs out there and many sources currently that are having difficulties (windsat being one, hence no IJIS updates for a while). This site has many of them https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

 

 

It's colder than normal.

 

Any proof? Or just the N of 80N graph again?

 

Last days data....................... .......................... Melt Season So Far

 

Well that graph from the not-at-all-activist-or-nazis-really-we're-not SKS stormtroopers suggests no ice by about next year.

I think it is mischievous, and assumes recent reduction in Arctic Ice is directly linked to CO2 - which is not the case.

 

As always, dish out insults when you don't like the data.

 

It doesn't show ice reaching 0 next year and it says nothing about CO2, that's all in you imagination.