Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Geordiesnow]

I been using the DMI 30% coverage so far this year and it seemed fairly accurate but for this month, it seemed to of gone a bit wrong, that big steep drop seems an error but I am not too convinced by it now because I look at the DMI 15% coverage and it seems to be a bit out of sync of other websites. 

 

Looks like JAXA has not updated again and nor has Crysophere today - fairly typical it had to happen at this time of year. 

[stewfox]

Lack of exceptional warmth this summer in the Arctic has reduced in situ melting, a +ve AO/NAO and reverse dipole have increased the cloudiness and reduced the export of sea ice out of Fram Strait and a number of moderate storms have spread the ice out much further, which increases the extent and to a lesser degree, the area.

 

There are many different graphs out there and many sources currently that are having difficulties (windsat being one, hence no IJIS updates for a while). This site has many of them https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can anyone explain why we get the flat line (current year) in the attached graph ? Is it because we are missing a few days data on IJIS?

 

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/extent_n_running_mean_F17_regular.png

Edited August 19, 2013 by stewfox

[stewfox]

It's currently below average...

 

 

Northern hemisphere ice 1.152 million below average

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

 

 

Southern hemisphere ice 1.152 million above average

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png

 

 

The difference between the current total global sea ice compared to the long term average is about 0.000 ish

 

 

[keithlucky]

2nd slowest ice melt season on record just behind 2001

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

[stewfox]

2nd slowest ice melt season on record just behind 2001

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Edited August 20, 2013 by stewfox

[oldsnowywizard]

http://www.arctic.io/sea-ice-charts/

 

Just a look at the NSIDC comparison pictures shows that things are quite different this year.. considering the state of the pack at the end of last years melt season, this is quite a surprise... (yes everything could melt tomorrow. ) 

 

There wasnt much ice left to cause the fabled melt and spread theory especially because the ice was supposedly so thin that and further thinning would have melted out as soon as the temperature hit +1 degree..

 

I trust no one will suggest this source is rubbish? We are running out of melt weeks and the temps are set to keep dropping. just next Tuesday and the 850 temps are forecast to be as follows..and then the 2m temps show most of the arctic below 0

 

cetainly one of the coldest 27th of Augusts that I can see when looking at the archive,... maybe 1999 was close...  does someone have a comparison of sst anomolies comparing this year with last year? it seems there arent that many usual hot spots (aside from barents)

[knocker]

A bit thin on top

 

Satellite data from the AMSR-2 instrument and MODIS show an unusually large expanse of low-concentration sea ice (20 to 80% cover) within our extent outline (15% or greater, using the SSM/I sensor) spanning much of the Russian side of the Arctic and extending to within a few degrees of the North Pole. A small area north of the Kara Sea has concentrations below 30%. This is likely in part a result of the dispersive effect of low-pressure systems that have migrated across the central Arctic over the past month. While some of the low concentrations recorded by AMSR-2 may be due to surface melt on sea ice, the MODIS image confirms that a large region is covered by isolated floes. The tendency towards a more open pack, with large areas of open water between ice floes, has increased in the past decade as the ice cover has thinned, as well as a tendency for formation of large polynyas (see ASINA posts for September 2006) and areas of pack detached from the main Arctic ice cover (such as mid-August 2012). The University of Washington’s Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) model and other models of ice thickness continue to indicate thin ice cover this summer.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited August 20, 2013 by knocker

[oldsnowywizard]

A bit thin on top

Satellite data from the AMSR-2 instrument and MODIS show an unusually large expanse of low-concentration sea ice (20 to 80% cover) within our extent outline (15% or greater, using the SSM/I sensor) spanning much of the Russian side of the Arctic and extending to within a few degrees of the North Pole. A small area north of the Kara Sea has concentrations below 30%. This is likely in part a result of the dispersive effect of low-pressure systems that have migrated across the central Arctic over the past month. While some of the low concentrations recorded by AMSR-2 may be due to surface melt on sea ice, the MODIS image confirms that a large region is covered by isolated floes. The tendency towards a more open pack, with large areas of open water between ice floes, has increased in the past decade as the ice cover has thinned, as well as a tendency for formation of large polynyas (see ASINA posts for September 2006) and areas of pack detached from the main Arctic ice cover (such as mid-August 2012). The University of Washington’s Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) model and other models of ice thickness continue to indicate thin ice cover this summer.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

According to the pictures you would have thought thin ice cover 2013 would be better than no ice cover such as 2012 in some of the areas in this story ... It would be nice if there was a comparison between years suggested ... Yes I know that ten years ago there would have been full ice two meters thick ... But we are where we are

[BornFromTheVoid]

Anywho, here's where we stand with regard to the previous minima

 

CT sea ice area

 

NSIDC sea ice extent

[stewfox]

Any reason why the IJIS 15% is not updating ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Is there another source ?

 

BFTV could you post the link again to your updated data , your post has been deleted? The link on here in the other thread doesn't seem to work.

Edited August 21, 2013 by stewfox

[picog]

Anywho, here's where we stand with regard to the previous minima

 

CT sea ice area

 

NSIDC sea ice extent

That looks quite promising, and better than the last few years.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Any reason why the IJIS 15% is not updating ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Is there another source ?

 

BFTV could you post the link again to your updated data , your post has been deleted? The link on here in the other thread doesn't seem to work.

 

WindSat (which is used by IJIS for their extent calculations) had some issues a few days ago. I expect that IJIS will be updated and back running again in a few days, perhaps early next week. Not sure if any other groups use WindSat...

 

Here's the link again http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,487.50.html

I might post some of them up in the data and stats thread today.

 

 

That looks quite promising, and better than the last few years.

 

Looking at the area and extent, it does like like quite an improvement. But looking as the visual data, the Eurasian side of the pack is in an awful state. Still, despite this, things are currently better than most anticipated.

[stewfox]

 

Looking at the area and extent, it does like like quite an improvement. But looking as the visual data, the Eurasian side of the pack is in an awful state. Still, despite this, things are currently better than most anticipated.

 

I am not sure if its straw clutching to try and look for something worse then it actually is ?

 

I look at the actual data, I'm no expert at looking at pictures maybe some are.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

My original estimate of 5.8m was a tad optimistic but my revised figure of 5.2m may not be far off. The general sub 4m group , just cant see it.

 

None of the 100k forecast daily drops have happened in recent weeks.

 

In need had we not seen a rapid melt out in the first few weeks of July we might have been back in 6m territory as min

[BornFromTheVoid]

I am not sure if its straw clutching to try and look for something worse then it actually is ?

 

I look at the actual data, I'm no expert at looking at pictures maybe some are.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

My original estimate of 5.8m was a tad optimistic but my revised figure of 5.2m may not be far off. The general sub 4m group , just cant see it.

 

None of the 100k forecast daily drops have happened in recent weeks.

 

In need had we not seen a rapid melt out in the first few weeks of July we might have been back in 6m territory as min

 

Just trying to see the situation from more perspectives. I wouldn't say expert to look at the MODIS data? There are good and bad points to this melt season, no point in focusing on just one.

[knocker]

Arctic Sea Ice Update: Unlikely To Break Records, But Continuing Downward Trend

 

Aug. 23, 2013

 

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic is well on its way toward its annual "minimum," that time when the floating ice cap covers less of the Arctic Ocean than at any other period during the year. While the ice will continue to shrink until around mid-September, it is unlikely that this year’s summer low will break a new record. Still, this year’s melt rates are in line with the sustained decline of the Arctic ice cover observed by NASA and other satellites over the last several decades.

 

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent, what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,†said Walt Meier, a glaciologist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “The long-term trend is strongly downward.â€

 

The icy cover of the Arctic Ocean was measured at 2.25 million square miles (5.83 million square kilometers) on Aug. 21. For comparison, the smallest Arctic sea ice extent on record for this date, recorded in 2012, was 1.67 million square miles (4.34 million square kilometers), and the largest recorded for this date was in 1996, when ice covered 3.16 millions square miles (8.2 million square kilometers) of the Arctic Ocean.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-update-unlikely-to-break-records-but-continuing-downward-trend/#.Uhe9kH9NapB

Edited August 23, 2013 by knocker

[Methuselah]

 

Arctic Sea Ice Update: Unlikely To Break Records, But Continuing Downward Trend

 

Aug. 23, 2013

 

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic is well on its way toward its annual "minimum," that time when the floating ice cap covers less of the Arctic Ocean than at any other period during the year. While the ice will continue to shrink until around mid-September, it is unlikely that this year’s summer low will break a new record. Still, this year’s melt rates are in line with the sustained decline of the Arctic ice cover observed by NASA and other satellites over the last several decades.

 

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent, what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,†said Walt Meier, a glaciologist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “The long-term trend is strongly downward.â€

 

The icy cover of the Arctic Ocean was measured at 2.25 million square miles (5.83 million square kilometers) on Aug. 21. For comparison, the smallest Arctic sea ice extent on record for this date, recorded in 2012, was 1.67 million square miles (4.34 million square kilometers), and the largest recorded for this date was in 1996, when ice covered 3.16 millions square miles (8.2 million square kilometers) of the Arctic Ocean.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-update-unlikely-to-break-records-but-continuing-downward-trend/#.Uhe9kH9NapB

 

In other words, Malcolm, it's a recovery!      

[keithlucky]

In other words, Malcolm, it's a recovery!      

Yes

a upwards trend 1.4 million

sq km higher than last year a 56percent gain ,the green are shows the new ice this year.http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Edited August 23, 2013 by keithlucky

[claret047]

Hello Everyone,

 

I posted the text below in the wrong thread earlier today. Apologies for doing so.

 

 

Posted Today, 14:55

Good Afternoon Everyone,I am not certain if I have posted in the correct thread, but if I have not please accept my apologies and moderator please transfer to the correct one.Please find below a link to an article from "Off Shore Technology" which I trust that you find of interest.http://www.offshore-...T.mc_id=WN_FeatIt is a bit confusing to me as I am not an expert on the subject, but I though that I read in other posts that the sea ice has held up better this year over the summer months and is considerably better than last year's he report that I have provided the link to appears to contradict this. Could someone with more knowledge please clarify this for me.  Many thankskind RegardsDave

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Hello Everyone,

 

I posted the text below in the wrong thread earlier today. Apologies for doing so.

 

 

Posted Today, 14:55

Good Afternoon Everyone,I am not certain if I have posted in the correct thread, but if I have not please accept my apologies and moderator please transfer to the correct one.Please find below a link to an article from "Off Shore Technology" which I trust that you find of interest.http://www.offshore-...T.mc_id=WN_FeatIt is a bit confusing to me as I am not an expert on the subject, but I though that I read in other posts that the sea ice has held up better this year over the summer months and is considerably better than last year's he report that I have provided the link to appears to contradict this. Could someone with more knowledge please clarify this for me.  Many thankskind RegardsDave

 

 

Hi Dave,

 

Can you point out what parts you think are contradictory?

[Methuselah]

Yes

a upwards trend 1.4 sq km higher than last year a 56percent gain ,the green are shows the new ice this year.http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Only 1.4 sq km? That's hardly a recovery...that's experimental error?

[knocker]

In other words, Malcolm, it's a recovery!      

 

Indeed Pete. One musn't miss the irony.

 

The Arctic sea ice cap has significantly thinned over the past decade and is now very vulnerable to melt, Comiso said. The multiyear ice cover, consisting of thicker sea ice that has survived at least two summers, has declined at an even faster rate than younger, thinner ice.

 

Edited August 23, 2013 by knocker

[claret047]

Hi Dave, Can you point out what parts you think are contradictory?

Hello BFTV,Thanks for your reply.Apologies but I believe that I realise my mistake now. The report relates to record levels of ice melt in 2012. I got my years muddled in thinking it was referring to the current situation. this summer the ice has retreated less than the previous year. Have I got it right now?Kind RegardsDave

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hello BFTV,Thanks for your reply.Apologies but I believe that I realise my mistake now. The report relates to record levels of ice melt in 2012. I got my years muddled in thinking it was referring to the current situation. this summer the ice has retreated less than the previous year. Have I got it right now?Kind RegardsDave

 

Happens to us all! I think you've got it now anyway. Things aren't as bad as last year but well below average.

[stewfox]

 

 

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent, what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,†said Walt Meier, a glaciologist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “The long-term trend is strongly downward.â€

 

The icy cover of the Arctic Ocean was measured at 2.25 million square miles (5.83 million square kilometers) on Aug. 21. For comparison, the smallest Arctic sea ice extent on record for this date, recorded in 2012, was 1.67 million square miles (4.34 million square kilometers), and the largest recorded for this date was in 1996, when ice covered 3.16 millions square miles (8.2 million square kilometers) of the Arctic Ocean.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-update-unlikely-to-break-records-but-continuing-downward-trend/#.Uhe9kH9NapB

 

 

In other words

 

In the last 10 years we have seen a reduced ice cover in the summer compared to the previous 24 years before that (which we have accurate record for).This year could see the biggest recovery on record cf previous year. We will have of course have far more 2nd/3rd year ice next year. We could end the summer season with the highest extent for many many years. This puts us in a good place for the 2014 melt season.

Edited August 23, 2013 by stewfox

[keithlucky]

In other words, Malcolm, it's a recovery!      

Wow compared to what 1932, records only are go back to 1970 lol

Edited August 23, 2013 by keithlucky