Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with Mushy to be honest- the synoptic setup showing on GFS/UKMO is quite a good one for dry, sunny and fairly warm weather in the west but the modified north to north-easterly flow would most likely bring significant amounts of stratocumulus to the eastern side of Britain.  The GFS temperature charts that Frosty039 posted show maxima of 10-13C in many parts of the eastern third of Britain and while the GFS is probably underdoing the maxima, they are rather below normal for late-May and suggest cloudy conditions.  The GFS FI would probably bring warmer sunnier conditions to most parts of the country as the north-easterly runs out of steam.

 

There is still some moderate convective potential showing on Thursday with a chilly Arctic north to north-westerly flow, with NE England down to Lincolnshire most likely to have thunder and hail from it.  After that the weather will dry up for most of us from the north but eastern areas may well turn cloudier thanks to the relatively stable air flow over the cool and moist North Sea, and there are chances of some organised rainfall coming into East Anglia.  However most of Ireland, western Scotland, NW England, Wales and the West Country are looking quite well-placed to see plenty of dry sunny weather with daytime temperatures near or rather above the seasonal average as we head into next weekend.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[049balt]

It is no laughing matter, farmers are in desperate circumstances here because the weather over the last twelve months,.

[Frosty.]

 

 

There is still some moderate convective potential showing on Thursday with a chilly Arctic north to north-westerly flow, with NE England down to Lincolnshire most likely to have thunder and hail from it.  

The hills & mountains in scotland could have some Thundery wintry showers later this week

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks more unsettled next weekend initially with the polar front jet right through the middle of the uk with unsettled and cool weather to the east of it and progressively more settled to the west as a ridge builds across from ireland, into next week and although the jet profile tilts nw-se, the robust atlantic ridge holds across the south well into next week with a sunnier trend with temperatures slowly recovering but more changeable to the northwest of the uk, this ends up looking better than it could have and it would be good news for the southern half of the uk at least with a fine and eventually a pleasantly warm outlook, add this to the settled gfs 12z in FI and things look better this evening than they did on the 00z.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

ECM is getting there slowly but surely tonight with high pressure slowly building in from the west

 

[Tamara]

I like the look of the ECMWF 00z ensemble mean at T+240 hours, very good signs for early June, and then when you compare this with the Gfs 12z op run in the same timeframe, the gfs could be on to something here.

The first ECM operational this evening that shows a flatter jetstream in the way it evolves and as a consequence the Azores high is ridging closer to the UK on this particular output.  The 12z operational looks a better match for this mornings ensemble mean and backs up the GFS for changes to drier and warmer conditions perhaps as we get to the start of June. But it is a long way off and the cool and unsettled pattern has proved hard to shift with previous false dawns.

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Tamara Road

[ANYWEATHER]

Its like previous summers , models always ,well as a rule ,painting a rosy summerlike picture then a completely different  scenario evolves! Im not convinced of any national summer like weather in the near future. Cannot see it in any modelling [well not including FI] but anyone wanting summerlike weather better go somewhere abroad, and clutching at straws comes to mind!!  

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 20th 2013.

 

 

All models show a slack NW flow over the UK. A weak cold front over the North has triggered a few heavy showers and storms near SE Scotland and NE England which will trundle South and decay overnight. With the air quite humid the next 24 hours or so will see a lot of low base cloud but temperatures very respectable, especially in the sunnier intervals tomorrow. Through the second half of the week the weather will freshen up and cool down with winds blowing down from the North quite strongly by Friday. There would still be a lot of dry weather in Western and Central areas but some showers in the East, heavy locally.

 

GFS then shows the weekend as being a reasonable affair as Bank Holiday weekends go with some sunny spells. There will be a few scattered showers about through the weekend mostly in the East before a ridge of High pressure moves down from the North to bring more settled and warmer conditions with a continuation of sunny spells  although warmer ones by midweek. FI tonight shows basically dry conditions with just an occasional shower from time to time. In fairly benign conditions temperatures will be generally close to average with warm conditions in the sunshine.

 

 

The GFS Ensembles show a cool off in uppers over the coming days before a rise to average conditions from the weekend. The operational was a warm outlier later in the run more so in the South where showery rain events prevail with frequency. The North has the driest conditions shown.

 

The Jet Stream shows a mixed and confused picture for the coming days before a split flow develops in a weeks time with the Northern arm riding High to the North of the UK.

 

 

UKMO shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with plenty of dry and bright weather to be had with just scattered showers here and there. Temperatures would be close to average but with light winds and late May sunshine it will feel warm in the sun.

 

GEM tonight shows slightly more emphasis on showers at the weekend as small disturbances run SE in the slack NW flow over the weekend with sunny spells in between when things will feel comfortable enough. By the end of the run High pressure builds over the UK with some dry and increasingly warmer conditions developing by midweek.

 

 

NAVGEM also shows a more showery theme but these largely in the East over the weekend with a chill North wind. Elsewhere dry and bright conditions will prevail with sunny spells and generally light winds.Towards the final days of the run a High pressure ridge to the NW sinks don across the UK bringing dry and warm conditions to all by Day 7.

 

ECM shows a fairly benign pattern tonight backing the North breeze at the start of the weekend into a NW then West wind later. Innitial showers in the SE would abate to generally dry and pleasant conditions before a North/South split looks likely late in the run with cloudier damper weather with rain and drizzle likely in the NW while Southern and SE parts become dry and warmer in sunny spells.

 

 

In Summary tonight a decent weekend looks likely with sunny spells for most and just the chance of some showers biased towards the SE and early in the weekend. As time passes the weather looks like staying largely benign with plenty of dry and bright conditions with the occasional shower always a risk while with time warmer uppers nearer to average arrive and translate into warm sunny spells at the surface beyond the Bank Holiday with rain becoming more likely towards the NW if ECM is to be believed.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Its like previous summers , models always ,well as a rule ,painting a rosy summerlike picture then a completely different scenario evolves! Im not convinced of any national summer like weather in the near future. Cannot see it in any modelling [well not including FI] but anyone wanting summerlike weather better go somewhere abroad, and clutching at straws comes to mind!!

yeah but this aint previous summers this is 2013 this can change and things will change people were writing off winter in dec after the phantom easterly look how winter turned out

[ANYWEATHER]

yeah but this aint previous summers this is 2013 this can change and things will change people were writing off winter in dec after the phantom easterly look how winter turned out

Nobody is writing off the summer, but people would do well not to believe in what the forecast models are saying in ten days time! Its all very experimental by then ,so a note of caution should be considered!  

[Polar Maritime]

Nobody is writing off the summer, but people would do well not to believe in what the forecast models are saying in ten days time! Its all very experimental by then ,so a note of caution should be considered!  

 

The thing is, is reading through the last few pages, a'll I can see is some fantastic post's discussing the model output, with plenty of consideration for FL as usual ? 

 

I agree, this summer could very well follow the same path as the last 3/4... but we shall see, that's way way out in FL.

[Purga]

two weeks of dry weather on the trotter..no chance

That could be a real swine if you grew watercress...

[Iceni]

That could be a real swine if you grew watercress...

 

I do. In the greenhouse in a grow bag. A good soak from a full watering can every other day is all that's required. It's my first attempt and I can't believe how easy it is and how much money I'm saving as I reckon watercress is a 'super food' and try to have some every few days.

 

Back on topic. I found out from a bee keeper that last year was the worst for apiarists (and bees) for a 100 years. They've literally all died and have had to be restocked. Also we're a full month behind a normal spring.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Iceni

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble shows high pressure building in nicely as the month draws to a close

 

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

 but people would do well not to believe in what the forecast models are saying in ten days time! Its all very experimental by then 

Yes it is but we still need to take note of trends to build up an overall picture of how the pattern might look a few weeks ahead, the met office for example with their own ensemble models etc have to build a picture of the upstream pattern and add some historical data to pattern match when they construct their extended outlook updates.

[Iceni]

It is no laughing matter, farmers are in desperate circumstances here because the weather over the last twelve months,.

 

The farmer we know remarked "When are things going to start bloody growing? That's what I want to know" Last year he lost all of his wheat crop to some fungus which made it unfit even for animal feed. He's tearing his hair out in despair. Maybe he should revert to mixed arable.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Iceni

[Milhouse]

High pressure trying its best to nose in to end the month but it will be a messy transition i feel. Encouraging signs at least for a more settled start to Summer. Infact the upcoming days look likely to contain some long dry periods (the south west favoured) but with temperatures falling back to below average.

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes it is but we still need to take note of trends to build up an overall picture of how the pattern might look a few weeks ahead, the met office for example with their own ensemble models etc have to build a picture of the upstream pattern and add some historical data to pattern match when they construct their extended outlook updates.

Im not interested in the metoffice outlook tbh Frosty, but I look for trends myself and I cannot see one piece of data that will excite me to the uk  seeing universal settled and warm conditions. As soon as I see a trend towards some lovely summer weather, I will be the first to shout!  

[phil nw.]

One or two posts are drifting into general chat about growing conditions etc which should be posted in other threads.

 

Please stick to Model output views in here please folks.

 

Thanks all.

[Milhouse]

If the GFS 12z is anything to go by it shows that even with air sourced from north of the UK it doesnt have to translate into cool for the UK. Today is a fine example of that with the low 20s in Scotland. With high pressure over Scandinavia its drawing a lot of warm air westwards which is then shown to spill south over the UK for the start of next week. The cold spell at the end of the week is very much associated with a cold pool of air rather than a continuous stream of polar air. By Sunday warmer uppers are back over the UK and it turns warm in the south west.

 

[nitro_deluxe]

New month of June only a cats whisker away now - whatever may or may not come a new trend would I feel be welcomed by some?

Warmth sun and ok whilst rain can't be ruled out completely - something remotely summery? And considering.

[Jimmy0127]

At least the Bank Holiday looks relatively good. Still, almost -5 850 uppers in late May is remarkable. No change to the pattern though - we'll have a sub average June - NW jet.

 

What I mean is that I think the energy will keep flowing from the North-West, and it'll be a sub average CET in June too. Hope I'm wrong.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Geordiesnow]

For this week, there was a battle between high pressure to the West and a developing low to the East and it seems now the low pressure system will be more of an influence than the high pressure cell therefore perhaps more rainfall this week potentially than originally predicted. 

 

At least one thing this quite chilly Arctic blast will bring reasonable amounts of sunshine and perhaps the potential for some convective weather on Thursday aslong that low pressure cell with its weather fronts does not get too close to the British Isles. 

 

The models despite what some posts say in this thread has not been showing much in the way in settled weather but high pressure near by in the Atlantic, the models are sort of hinting the pattern could go flatter again(this afternoon ECM is showing this and some GFS runs have also) so be interesting if that does occur or not. 

 

No real sign of any lengthy settled spell though just yet but plenty of time for that too occur though. 

[Guest pjl20101]

Seems as though the mid Atlantic ridge situation is on now according to the CPC 8-14 day model which in turn will be very pleasing indeed and no lp as that seems reserved for Spain and that:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I'd take that to be honest and at least it won't be bringing in the worst of anything either.

[mushymanrob]

i cant see anything to get excited about either, a northwesterly of some discription for the rest of the month, the azh anchored to our southwest dispite occassionally ridging in to give us a pleasant day or two. ok, theres no monsoon, no hurricane, no real cold, but all i can see as a generalisation is a cool, generally dry, and quite bright/sunny spells regime of varying degrees for the rest of the month.

 

looking into what might happen in early june is a waste of energy atm, yes there might be hints on some data outputs of something summery, but its too far off to place any faith in it, plus IF its going to become reality, itll still be there when it approaches a semi reliable timeframe (and is worth commenting on).