Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[Summer Sun]

Longer term GFS remains consistent in building pressure as we enter June

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

Shorter term UKMO will be a lot of peoples friend this afternoon by giving the UK 2 successive settled BH weekend's where as GFS is dreadful by bringing what has become fairly typical weather for a UK BH weekend over the past number of years wet and windy

 

ECM and GFS's ensemble run should shed some light on things hopefully

Edited May 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Tony27]

of course deep into FI GFS gives us a big fat high, the high looks like going to greenland yet again, and then we would probably get another northerly a few days later but of course its pure conjuncture right now, it really is pointless talking about charts post T192 imo as they always seem to show special synoptics which hardly ever verify

[Summer Sun]

GEM is following UKMO by bringing us a settled BH Monday and its not far off UKMO which I've placed on the right to compare the 2

 

 

Edited May 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[weather_it_will]

It's funny how people dismiss the GFS because it is showing cold unsettled weather.

If this was winter, people would be saying how the GFS has this nailed, and champagne at the ready.

Far too many people jumping on the warm and sunny is the only correct solution.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Hot Wet Windy Cold No Snow

[Frosty.]

This is one reason why UKMO (the met office) take little note of GFS they stick to they own model (as expected) probably ECM (as its the other European model where as GFS is American), and there in house models GFS is just laughable sometimes and this afternoon is a perfect example (see post 619)

 

If you want a consistent model I'd suggest you stick to UKMO

I agree Gavin

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's funny how people dismiss the GFS because it is showing cold unsettled weather.If this was winter, people would be saying how the GFS has this nailed, and champagne at the ready.Far too many people jumping on the warm and sunny is the only correct solution.

Just a couple of days ago the GFS was championed for nailing the pattern! Talk of feathers in caps etc etc

[Barry12]

I said before the GFS was right, but this week couldn't be any different from what the GFS was suggesting. Whether the GFS shows cool with heavy rain or warm and sunny, I won't believe it. It was useless last winter, and it's useless now.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Barry95

[Tony27]

It's funny how people dismiss the GFS because it is showing cold unsettled weather.

If this was winter, people would be saying how the GFS has this nailed, and champagne at the ready.

Far too many people jumping on the warm and sunny is the only correct solution.

who is dismissing the GFS apart from gavin, i never dismiss any model, apart from GFS min temps predictions

[Cheshire Freeze]

I said before the GFS was right, but this week couldn't be any different from what the GFS was suggesting. Whether the GFS shows cool with heavy rain or warm and sunny, I won't believe it. It was useless last winter, and it's useless now.

 

Hurrah, someone has finally grasped the shortcomings of the GFS.

 

The 12z pattern is a bit of an outlier I think, given what we've seen from UKMO and GEM. It remains a plausible solution though if too much energy leaks SE so we'll have to wait and see.

[Frosty.]

Just a couple of days ago the GFS was championed for nailing the pattern! Talk of feathers in caps etc etc

I will be happy to put a feather in the Gfs cap if the GEFS 06Z mean verifies

[Greybird]

A lot of comments about the GFS reliability, over the last few weeks. Well, perhaps the proposed improvements may be FI, have too wait and see.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/15/game-changing-improvements-in-the-works-for-u-s-weather-prediction/

 

The ECMWF may well end up having to play catchup.

[Methuselah]

Hurrah, someone has finally grasped the shortcomings of the GFS.

 

The 12z pattern is a bit of an outlier I think, given what we've seen from UKMO and GEM. It remains a plausible solution though if too much energy leaks SE so we'll have to wait and see.

Apart from the MetO outlooks (which, as far as I'm aware, refer to them all) what individual model has been consistently right? Haven't they all chopped-and-changed...?

[Frosty.]

Apart from the MetO outlooks (which, as far as I'm aware, refer to them all) what individual model has been consistently right? Haven't they all chopped-and-changed...?

Agreed, the ecm which is widely considered the best model, just edging the ukmo because it goes the extra hard yards, is often wrong and flip flops with the worst of them. I remember how during the winter the ecm was frequently showing winter 1963 type charts between T+204 & 240 hours and they all came to precisely nothing...BOOM and then BUST

Edited May 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

Apart from the MetO outlooks (which, as far as I'm aware, refer to them all) what individual model has been consistently right? Haven't they all chopped-and-changed...?

 

No model is consistently right, but they aren't consistently wrong like the GFS

Agreed, the ecm which is widely considered the best model, just edging the ukmo because it goes the extra hard yards, is often wrong and flip flops with the worst of them. I remember how during the winter the ecm was frequently showing winter 1963 type charts between T+204 & 240 hours and they all came to precisely nothing.

 

That's because it was 240 hours!

Edited May 21, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

No model is consistently right, but they aren't consistently wrong like the GFS

 

That's because it was 240 hours!

So what, it still got a lot of people excited on here, some who are now in hibernation until november.

[Thundery wintry showers]

To be honest I think the GFS and UKMO are essentially showing us the two extreme-case scenarios.  The UKMO has the high pressure ridging further east and south than we saw on this morning's runs, including the GEFS ensemble mean.  I doubt that it would be particularly warm in the eastern half of the country but sunny and dry weather would almost certainly be very widespread and in those circumstances with only light winds it often feels warmer outside than the thermometer suggests.

 

The GFS evolution, throwing a low south-eastwards at around the T+120/144 mark, had some support from the ECMWF this morning but it is IMHO unlikely that the low will be anywhere near as significant a feature as the GFS is showing.  Before concluding that the GFS is completely wrong, though, I'm holding fire until the ECMWF and its ensembles come out, because if they continue to support that feature then it's possible that the GFS could be showing a somewhat exaggerated version of the right outcome and that UKMO might be wrong.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

ECM, UKMO and GFS all in agreement at t72 this evening

 

 

T144 see's ECM (middle) leaving UKMO on its own with the big 3 all showing different options for BH Monday take your pick which will be right or wrong

 

 

GEM and UKMO take the settled route whilst GFS and ECM take the unsettled route

Edited May 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Tamara]

The GFS solution is entirely plausible. It's what happens when enough energy gets dragged SE, preventing AH ridging.

And the ECM at t144 comes up with energy disrupting SE in continued theme of the pattern staying amplified as it has for so long

 

Similar idea to GFS operational but with the low not as deep and not as far SE'wards.

 

Edited May 21, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Summer Sun]

Once again the ENS is superb for very late May and into June with high pressure dominating

 

 

Another very consistent update from ENS maybe summer will start on a positive note for once

 

[Tamara]

A weeks time and the ECM suggests a repeat of this week with cold northerly winds and rain and showers especially in the east. Could it be that the GEFS ensembles are in complete agreement of the wrong solution as they were with the same idea a few days back? So maybe the GFS operational knows more than its ensemble set this evening.

 

Edited May 21, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean eventually turns into another very summery run with the Azores anticyclone finally ridging in properly with a trend towards a very warm and sunny outlook, just like the 6z mean did. The met office have been talking about a more settled pattern into June and this run backs it up to the hilt, if this or something similar verified, it would definately be a FLAMING JUNE, I could not understand how anyone would be happy with a continuation of the cool, unsettled dross which has had the upper hand so far, bring on some proper summer warmth.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is getting there slowly but surely

 

 

Maybe a Flaming June will be coming our way this year (and flaming for the right reason's not flaming wet like last June)

Edited May 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[ANYWEATHER]

The GEFS 12z mean eventually turns into another very summery run with the Azores anticyclone finally ridging in properly with a trend towards a very warm and sunny outlook, just like the 6z mean did. The met office have been talking about a more settled pattern into June and this run backs it up to the hilt, if this or something similar verified, it would definately be a FLAMING JUNE, I could not understand how anyone would be happy with a continuation of the cool, unsettled dross which has had the upper hand so far, bring on some proper summer warmth.

And I cannot understand why you and Gavin keep posting dreamy like summer weather when we are  left with the opposite! With respect to your posts, everytime I come on here we are constantly looking at high pressure charts! Its all fantasy island im afraid and as I said last night I don't see any prolonged settled spell, anyway excuse the rant!!

Edited May 21, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

And I cannot understand why you and Gavin keep posting dreamy like summer weather when we are altumately

 

Because we like settled summery weather and after the year we've had so far many of us would just like to see some warm settled weather

 

T240 continues the settled weather

 

 

Edited May 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Tamara]

It's not a case of wanting the cool unsettled pattern to continue, it is simply giving an appraisal and reading between the lines as to what might be the right solution .  We have seen attempts for the Azores/atlantic High to move in with a less amplified jet stream before and whilst it may eventually happen (and afterall no pattern lasts forever) it has proved very stubborn for a long long time now.

 

It could well be that the GEFS ensembles are simply being too quick to try to change the pattern. A lot can happen anyway from a weeks time which still leaves us in the last few days of May. At this time I would trust the ECM to have a better handle, at the very least, in terms of the timing of any improvement (if/as/when it comes).

 

I think most of would welcome some pleasant sunshine at long last, but we still have to give a balanced and realistic view as to when that might arrive

 

The rest of the ECM output still has the jetstream at such an angle that is prohibitive for the Azores High to move eastwards as many of us would like to see closer to the UK for something rather warmer and sunnier.  We see energy disruption more likely to keep occuring on that basis than if the jet stream angled more SW-NE as a mechanism for lifting the colder upper air out

Edited May 21, 2013 by Tamara Road