Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[Methuselah]

Come on peeps - there a several threads that allow for discussing Solar Cycles, ice-melt and the various 'oscillations'...

 

But this isn't one of them.

[Paul]

Jo will be blogging through this week looking ahead to the holiday weekend and what the models are showing - her first one is online here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5186;sess=

[Guest pjl20101]

Come on peeps - there a several threads that allow for discussing Solar Cycles, ice-melt and the various 'oscillations'...

But this isn't one of them.

Cheers Pete for that and please may we have our posts split from here into the relevant sections.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows a gradual improvement during FI for the southern half of the uk, it slowly trends warmer with prolonged settled spells as pressure becomes high to the south of the BI with only the occasional unsettled interlude but for the northern half of the uk and more specifically for scotland & n.ireland it looks generally much cooler and very unsettled with temperatures well below average, 10-11c in early June is frankly pathetic but for the south, it may begin to resemble something more summery as may ends and summer begins, however, before then it looks like all parts of the uk will become cool and unsettled later this week, saturday could bring some relief with a window of fine weather but then quickly becoming unsettled again, it will take some considerable time for temperatures to recover to current values and scotland needs to make the most of their one very warm day today with temps of 23-24c, those high temperatures today are the trigger for an explosive atmosphere with violent storms later today with large hail and flash floods, not only across southern/eastern scotland but also across northern england and down into the midlands, again with intense storms and also some showers drifting towards the southeast but not as intense as further north, tomorrow we do it all again with showers for the same areas but not as potent as today and a little cooler tomorrow, nearer 15-19c nationwide, then turning much cooler from the north from midweek with strengthening Northerly winds coming down from the arctic with showers and sunny spells, driest and brightest further west.

[Purga]

The Gfs 06z op run shows a gradual improvement during FI for the southern half of the uk, it slowly trends warmer with prolonged settled spells as pressure becomes high to the south of the BI with only the occasional unsettled interlude but for the northern half of the uk and more specifically for scotland & n.ireland it looks generally much cooler and very unsettled with temperatures well below average, 10-11c in early June is frankly pathetic but for the south, it may begin to resemble something more summery as may ends and summer begins, however, before then it looks like all parts of the uk will become cool and unsettled later this week, saturday could bring some relief with a window of fine weather but then quickly becoming unsettled again, it will take some considerable time for temperatures to recover to current values and scotland needs to make the most of their one very warm day today with temps of 23-24c, those high temperatures today are the trigger for an explosive atmosphere with violent storms later today with large hail and flash floods, not only across southern/eastern scotland but also across northern england and down into the midlands, again with intense storms and also some showers drifting towards the southeast but not as intense as further north, tomorrow we do it all again with showers for the same areas but not as potent as today and a little cooler tomorrow, nearer 15-19c nationwide, then turning much cooler from the north from midweek with strengthening Northerly winds coming down from the arctic with showers and sunny spells, driest and brightest further west.

Maybe but the Op is very much on the warm / dry side of the ENS suite without much support really and with a significant group including the Control going for cool conditions to continue in FI

 

 

[Frosty.]

Maybe but the Op is very much on the warm / dry side of the ENS suite without much support really and with a significant group including the Control going for cool conditions to continue in FI

 

 

The latest met office update shows an east-west split for the Bank holiday weekend and throughout next week with the cool/trough conditions with sharp showers in the east of the uk and most settled conditions in the west but with a few showers and with the driest, brightest weather towards the southwest, eventually the unsettled and coolest weather becoming more confined to northwest uk with temperatures and general weather conditions improving elsewhere, this is rather different to the ecm 00z and gfs 06z op runs which both show a north-south split developing by next week with the south becoming more settled and a little warmer and the north remaining cool and unsettled with atlantic sourced weather. I'm hoping the signal for a vastly improved June is still a strong one.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

Well this brief warm up is quickly ushered away by midweek as a cold front moves south east across the country turning winds into the north.We can see the change coming on tomorrows fax

 

 

temperatures falling away through the rest of the week then.Although there will be some sunshine there will be some  showers around especially for northern and eastern areas.

As the depth of the cold air increases some snow looks quite possible later in the week over the Scottish highlands in an increasing northerly wind.

 

Looking at the 00z NAEF`s and ECM height anomalies for day10 we still see the UK stuck under a mean upper trough

 

so still looking rather cool with the wind coming from the north west for much of the time.

 

The Azores high does throw some brief ridging towards the UK from time to time so some days will be somewhat brighter and warmer feeling but as other posters have suggested no real prolonged warmth or settled weather is yet on the horizon i am afraid.

[summer blizzard]

A poor outlook on the whole with a cool and unsettled pattern. The one crumb of comfort is that both the ECWMF and GFS ensembles suggest a ridge at day 10.

[yido]

The GFS12z is predicting temperatures for the 24th May to be warmer on the south coast of Iceland than the south coast of France. Surely this has to be incredibly rare for the time of year?

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess=

Edited May 20, 2013 by yido

[Frosty.]

Not long to wait for the next ridge (s) of high pressure, the Gfs 12z op run looks fine for most of the uk on saturday apart from the southeast, some recovery in temperatures too.

[049balt]

Whats that I see to the west of Ireland?

I hope is not a bloody great cold front!

Edited May 20, 2013 by 049balt

[Frosty.]

Whats that I see to the west of Ireland?

the atlantic ocean

[Frosty.]

Now is this another gfs tease, an atlantic ridge pushing east early next week, now I wonder what could possibly go wrong with that

 

Actually, the Gfs 12z shows a reasonable weekend for most of the BI with just the southeast corner of britain holding on to cool and unsettled weather with a trough just to the east, for many it looks sunnier and dare I say pleasantly warmer with light winds as we go into the early part of next week too, this would be a welcome trend.

[Summer Sun]

Not bad from UKMO at t144 with low pressure anchored across Greenland high pressure is getting a decent chance to build

 

 

[weather_it_will]

GFS wants to bring in a ridge of high pressure once again, but has it lost the plot with no support as we have seen before recently.

 

The ridge eventually fades away though, returning things to normal.

 

 

 

The GFS ridge goes for an encore later on in June, but will it stick?

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Hot Wet Windy Cold No Snow

[Summer Sun]

GFS wants to bring in a ridge of high pressure once again, but has it lost the plot with no support as we have seen before recently.

 

The ridge eventually fades away though, returning things to normal.

 

]

 

It fades away yes but it soon returns

 

Last day before it breaks up

 

 

Returns in the north first

 

 

Before extending UK wide

 

 

All in all good signs again for a settled start to June as per the latest met office update this afternoon

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

Well what a superb Gfs 12z run that turned out to be, the jet heading north of the uk and high pressure dominating with temps eventually into the low 70's F. BANK

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

No rain for Ireland for the nex two weeks!!

[IDO]

No surprise that the GFS might show a better BH weekend. The GEFS from the 0z:

The mean minimum pressure (London) was 1005hPa. The 06z: up to 1011hPa. Looks like the trend is continuing on the 12z.

Again a FI on the 12z full of Higher Pressure to the west and LP to the SE. This is a developing pattern and although there are a few GFS doubters on this forum, so I wont talk it up, there is potential for a window of settled weather in the medium term.

That cold flow of air moving down the UK from Wednesday to Friday looks in the reliable now.

eg UKMO D3: and GFS:

It becomes a cold pool but doesn't clear the UK till Saturday morning:

By that time the trough becomes slack like the last weekend, and again there are lows close to eastern areas threatening more prolonged rain away from the west:

BH Sunday: BH Monday:

So in a ten day period, from Saturday gone, to BH Monday, parts of the south will have high temps of 16c+ on seven days of these ten(taking data from the GFS 12z run). Not too bad, and of course further west should be drier and maybe sunnier.

Edited May 20, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

Yes, it's almost June

[049balt]

It is rare that Ireland gets better weather than the UK but this seems to be the case for the next week or so.

[mushymanrob]

We could be heading towards one of the coldest Springs in well over 100 years - very interesting period.  

 

...well theres only 2 weeks left of this (pretty dire) spring, lets hope things change for summer!

 

Well what a superb Gfs 12z run that turned out to be, the jet heading north of the uk and high pressure dominating with temps eventually into the low 70's F. BANK

 

i do not share your optimism karl. high pressure anchored to our west may well bring pleasant conditions for favoured sunnier places, but high close to our west = cloud spoiler. id sooner have a straight cooler but sunnier northerly then an largely overcast milder regime. hardly seen the sun today under similar conditions and its dull now.

[Frosty.]

I like the look of the ECMWF 00z ensemble mean at T+240 hours, very good signs for early June, and then when you compare this with the Gfs 12z op run in the same timeframe, the gfs could be on to something here.

[Purga]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

No rain for Ireland for the nex two weeks!!

 

[Frosty.]

two weeks of dry weather on the trotter..no chance