Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[johnholmes]

Not bad again....

 

The trouble is the surface high is not in the best place and within 48 hours from those pleasant 2m temperatures indicated by the 850mb values they are dropped some 6-10C at the surface! Edited May 15, 2013 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

The trouble is the surface high is not in the best place and within 48 hours from those pleasant 2m temperatures indicated by the 850mb values they are dropped some 6-10C at the surface!

And the other trouble is it has little or no support, how I would snap up the half decent 6z run now, at least it was a dry run beyond the upcoming soggy weekend, it seems the unsettled ecm/gem combo is the more realistic outcome with the all important met office support, I don't regard an outlook which only mentions brighter interludes as having any anticyclonic influence. I remain hopeful of a sunnier and warmer outcome but the expert consensus is very much against it, wonder if the gfs 12z will agree?

 

Tomorrow looks like a day of sunny intervals and heavy slow moving showers with hail and thunderstorms rumbling around england and wales. probably somewhat drier and brighter across scotland with less and lighter showers compared to further south.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[Zenarcher]

On Thursday morning England will be dry and mostly sunny, elsewhere will start the day off cloudy with showers and even some some mist around Ireland. Through the afternoon sunny spells with showers will be the main theme of weather for everyone these showers will be heavy at times over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Through the evening Southern England and Scotland enjoy dry weather with clear sunshine but elsewhere will remain partly cloudy with showers and these showers may be very heavy over Ireland. Overnight into the early hours of Friday clearing up in the West but turning cloudy in the East overall it does dry up. For the wind a strong breeze over Western and Northern Scotland but elsewhere calm. For temperatures central and Eastern England will see the highest of about 14c to 15c.

 

Fridays best weather will be in the Western parts where it will be mostly sunny but Ireland still has a continued risk of showers. For England, Wales and Eastern Scotland it will be cloudy with showers however Southern England may escape these showers and get away with dry cloudy weather. During the evening and overnight the entire UK becomes cloudy as fog rolls in over the Eastern coasts and showers remain likely for Ireland. The wind will be a strong breeze everywhere for most of the time but later in the day it turns to gale force over the North. Temperatures mainly good for Western areas and Scotland may be the warmest closely followed by Ireland then SW England.

 

The weekend still looks uncertain at this stage as the models don't seem to have made their mind up on exactly where and how deep this low may be. The GFS has downgraded the strength of its deepness in the last day. At the moment the GFS gives Wales, the Midlands and Eastern Scotland heavy rain for Saturday. Early Sunday the heavy rain pushes West and fog spreads across the UK before Sunday afternoon comes along and brightens up with sunshine. For the wind it will be severe gales over Western and Northern Scotland and Ireland but for England and Wales they remain over the center of the low and get calm winds. Saturday temperatures look still on the cold side but the GFS has it warm up on Sunday and shows 20c may be possible.

 

I expect by tomorrow we should have much better confidence on the weekends weather as it looks interesting for everyone in some sort of way.

Edited May 15, 2013 by weathermaster

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean is looking increasingly settled beyond the weekend with high pressure taking control, it's a more settled mean than the 00z and much better than anything the ecm is currently showing, the north and west of the uk in particular would do very well from the 6z mean with high pressure to the northwest/north but all areas would become generally settled next week, later in the run the mean shows a slight drop in pressure from around 1020 mb to 1010-1015mb  and would probably mean a trend to rather cooler and more showery conditions but next week would be relatively warmer than we have seen for a while with increasing amounts of pleasantly warm sunshine.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Frosty039

[rory o gorman]

12z is a winner in the medium term 18-21 C by Tuesday beats the wintry 9 currently here...

[Summer Sun]

Lots of high pressure on the GFS 12z tonight

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is persisting with the azores high building a narrow but strong ridge northeastwards to the northwest of the BI next week with the north and west of the uk having it's warmest and most settled, sunniest spell of the spring so far, further south and east also warms up but there is still a risk of some showers although a lot of fine and pleasantly warm, sunny weather too. This is a much nicer run up to T+240 hours and chalk and cheese compared to the unsettled and cooler ecm, this run is also much more settled than the latest met office update described a few hours ago, so, the plot thickens, gfs and ecm are currently showing completely different weather for next week.

[BornFromTheVoid]

GFS sticking to its guns, introducing a mild/warm easterly airflow across the British Isles from early next week.

 

The key differences appears to be in the orientation of the Atlantic upper ridge around the t120-144 mark. At t120, both the ECM and 12z GFS shows the upper ridging extending towards Scandinavia.

 

............. .t120 ECM ................... .................... t120 GFS

 

Moving towards the t144 time frame, the upper ridge in the ECM begins to shift more towards the US, while the GFS ridges increasingly towards Scandinavia. This may be in part due to do with the positioning of an upper level trough over the Baffin sea/Labrador to the west of Greenland.

On the ECM, the trough is further north, allowing a stronger linkage of the upper ridge between the Atlantic and North America.

 

On the GFS the trough much further south, which may inhibit the linking of the upper ridge in the mid Atlantic with one over the US.

 

That trough could be a key area to watch on the ECM this evening

[Frosty.]

These are the type of charts most of us want to see with long spells of pleasantly warm sunshine and high pressure in charge, hopefully the gfs continues with this trend, in order of goodness, this run is a close 2nd to the 00z in FI, the 00z was warmer but even the 6z is far superior to the ecm....let's see what tonight's ecm has in store, hopefully a big improvement on the dross from it's last few runs.

[049balt]

What time will the ECM update?

[Stuart]

start at 7pm and sould be done at 8pm

 

edit all times here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

 

Edited May 15, 2013 by Stuart

[Frosty.]

What time will the ECM update?

7pm to 8pm, 

[Summer Sun]

Not much scatter on the 12z ensembles tonight which is rare

 

 

Very low rainfall from the 23rd to at least the 31st for northern and eastern parts

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

T120 on the 12z ECM and it looks like it's trending towards the GFS slightly, but not quite enough to produce as good a run as the 12z GFS I suspect.

 

Perhaps things will change by t144? Fingers crossed!

 

EDIT: Nope. No strong ridging into Scandinavia at t144. Cool northerly instead

 

 

 

Edited May 15, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[049balt]

Looks like west is best then.

[Summer Sun]

Once again GFS appears to be leading us down the Garden path with ECM having non of it for anything warm and settled

 

[ANYWEATHER]

   Whos barking up the wrong tree??!!  

[AWD]

Whos barking up the wrong tree??!!

Looks like, to me, the UKMO is somewhat more akin to the GFS scenario rather than the ECM too, although maybe not as robust;

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 15th 2013.

All models show a broadly unsettled period between now and the start of the next week. With areas of Low pressure quite shallow and flabby details will always be elusive with areas of rain and showers revolving around a general low complex near the South of the UK. Some places will fair quite well missing a lot of the showers while other areas see rather a lot of rain at times.

GFS then shows next week with the fairly static pattern of High pressure to the NW and Low pressure to the South and SW of the UK. The NW half of the UK would have a fairly decent week next week with sunny spells and temperatures becoming reasonably warm in the sunshine. In the South and SE there would be some reasonable weather too at times but here the risk of showers would remain, greater on some days than others in temperatures close to normal. Through the remainder of FI the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low to the North remains with the best of the dry conditions remaining in the North with the continued threat from showers at times in the South.

The GFS Ensembles show a wet spell coming up followed by a slow reduction in the amounts of rainfall over the following period. Uppers, after rising above average fall back somewhat and it maybe with less rainfall later in the output that the benefit of these could be felt at the surface if sunshine is allowed to play a role in the weather over the coming 2 weeks.

The Jet Stream shows the same pattern as this morning with the track South to the West of the UK and North to the East maintained for a time. later the trough breaks down with the flow split. The Northern arm moves NE well North of the UK with another arm well South over Southern Europe.

UKMO tonight shows slack Low pressure covering much of NW Europe with heavy thundery downpours at times in temperatures near or a little above average in any sunnier spells between the showers. The most showers would most likely be in the South with the driest conditions to the North.

GEM shows slow and temporary improvements next week as Low pressure gradually fills and moves away in response to a slow rise of pressure off the Atlantic High. Later on though Low pressure slips back down over the UK from the North reviving the unsettled weather at the end of the run.

NAVGEM too shows gentle improvements through next week as the Atlantic High makes inroads towards the UK. It could take most of the week though to remove the threat of showers away from the far South.

ECM tonight shows rather poor conditions tonight as the UK trough remains firmly anchored close to the UK with various often shallow Low pressure areas delivering showers or spells of rain mixed with some drier and sunnier spells. Temperatures do recover though with the growing season well under way from these showery synoptics. Nights though would remain very chilly. The end of the run shows more Low pressure reinforcements pushing down from the NW maintaining the unsettled theme.

In Summary there are few signs of any significant change towards long term settled and warm conditions in the near future. At best tonight the models show some infiltration of High pressure from the Atlantic into more Northern areas next week giving respectable weather and restricting the shower risk to the South. ECM tonight is a disappointment in that it doesn't really show any injection of such higher pressure at all maintaining a UK based trough with further reinforcements from the NW at the end of it's run. On the plus side the cool uppers of recent days will drain away soon so at least the showers that fall will be a warmer variety and help promote the growing season and in any sunshine it will feel reasonably warm.

[ANYWEATHER]

So who do you think is right at T+240 ?Gfs or Ecm....What is it to be boyz ...Yes or No?  

Edited May 15, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

I don't think next week is resolved yet although the ecm is regarded as the best performing model, it does have it's fair share of wobbles too, so we can't rule out the azores ridge building strongly as the gfs is showing. I would hold on until tomorrow and see what happens before writing off next week as another poor week in this very poor spring.

[be cause]

So who do you think is right at T+240 ?Gfs or Ecm....  

Rather the gfs ..bbbut this year the ecm is more likely ! Please may I be wrong for a change ?  !!

[Barry12]

The models will upgrade the warm and dry spell early next week in the coming days. Tuesday looks nice according to the GFS and if the Azores links with the Scandinavian high it could be hard to shift

Edited May 15, 2013 by Barry95

[Methuselah]

There's only one problem concerning the HP: it's not there yet?

[Frosty.]

There's only one problem concerning the HP: it's not there yet?

spot on RP, it's all to play for next week, the fat lady isn't singing yet.