Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[Summer Sun]

Lol,the ECM is trying to tempt steve murr out of hibernation!

 

ECM0-144.gif

 

Given the time of year many would still see temperatures into double figures it would take more than that to get Steve out of hibernation

Edited May 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

Clutching at straws from some!  

No I think the ecm 12z has reacted and adjusted the atlantic high a little further east and therefore shunted the sliding trough further east so there is now a little more hope, also remember that the ecm 00z ens mean doesn't even show the polar front jet dropping south as the op runs do, so I think the gfs deserves a little more credit than it's been getting recently.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[BornFromTheVoid]

Good news folks ECM is now building pressure at t120

 

 

However t144 goes downhill with north to north westerly winds taking over

 

 

I wouldn't consider that too much of a downhill really, it's much better than the 0z up to t144 anyway. 

 

Taking next Tuesday for a comparison, today's 12z ECM shows a much stronger high pressure influence over the British Isles than yesterdays.

 

Yesterdays ECM Tuesday forecast............Today's ECM Tuesday forecast

 

 

A step towards the GFS in my opinion.

[ANYWEATHER]

No I think the ecm 12z has reacted and adjusted the atlantic high a little further east and therefore shunted the sliding trough further east so there is now a little more hope, also remember that the ecm 00z ens mean doesn't even show the polar front jet dropping south as the op runs do, so I think the gfs deserves a little more credit than it's been getting recently.

Of course Frosty, the ecm will have wobbles but the general trend from its output is still there!   

[Barry12]

Seen this type of thing happening all winter, one model is consistent with it's outlook and the other models gradually move towards the consistent model each run, so by the time the models get closer to the timeframe there is much better agreement. Further ECM runs will move ever so more to the GFS, although I'd be more confident of this happening if the ECM was being consistent.

 

 

yes i've edited this post a lot

Edited May 16, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

An eastward shift of the low compared to previous ECM runs. An improvement, but it still drags a cool pool of upper air over us.

 

I wonder if subsequent runs will build on this improvement?

most of us will be hoping for that.

Of course Frosty, the ecm will have wobbles but the general trend from its output is still there!   

yes the ecm has had a little wobble tonight..baby steps in the right direction IMO.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

A nice looking GFS12z mean at T144hrs

 

 

a good build of heights across the UK.Would warm up nicely-maybe cooler near eastern coasts for a while.

Ens graph for London looking drier after the weekend too.

 

 

The ECM op.not yet convinced but some movement east of the upper trough

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

 

so next week starting to look much better for many of us even with the ECM scenario.

[Guest]

What the ECM is now suggesting is really not that bad.

 

The low pressure doesn't stick around and gets pushed on by a ridge of HP by next weekend. The 00z was much worse, with the LP hanging around much longer giving us rather dismal weather for the foreseeable future. The 12z gets the thumbs up from me.

[Frosty.]

A nice looking GFS12z mean at T144hrs

 

Rz500m6.gif

 

a good build of heights across the UK.Would warm up nicely-maybe cooler near eastern coasts for a while.

Ens graph for London looking drier after the weekend too.

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

The ECM op.not yet convinced but some movement east of the upper trough

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

 

so next week starting to look much better for many of us even with the ECM scenario.

Yes phil, perhaps a better sounding met office update will be in order tomorrow if this trend continues on the 00z.

[rory o gorman]

ECM is a big improvement for my location here in southern Ireland , ridged from Monday on ,until F.I with descent uppers and offshore winds , today's 10c would become 16-18c quite easily .

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is the report of the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday May 16th 2013.

All models show a complex pressure pattern over the UK with differentials shown between the models from quite an early point. Low pressure is the governing factor with various centres continuing to revolve around and over the UK for the upcoming days.

GFS shows Low pressure moving West into the North of the UK then away to the South early next week. Rain is shown to move West across the North particularly on Saturday while the South, though cloudy looks like it could stay largely dry. By early next week Low pressure is generally South of the UK with showers becoming increasingly restricted to these areas as a ridge from the Atlantic High moves over Scotland. This sinks South over the week with all areas becoming dry with sunny spells and warmer temperatures by day. The Bank Holiday weekend shows Southern areas being very pleasant with plenty of dry and bright weather while the North becomes cloudier with some rain for a time late in the weekend. In FI the weather remains reasonable for a time before the return to a UK trough setup similar to currently looks probable.

The GFS Ensembles show a sharp rise in uppers over the North in the coming days in association with the Low moving West into the North on Saturday. The rise is less marked in the South but at least a recovery to more normal uppers look likely here too. Longer term the high uppers in the North reduce to average levels. The rain is marked in the South on Sunday/Monday with a more showery scenario looking likely later. In the South the operational is on the warm side of the pack in the second half of the run.

The Jet Stream shows the flow sinking South to the West of the UK and North to the East with the UK in the middle. The trough in the flow subsides after a few days and the flow becomes split with the Northern arm extending NE to the North of the UK and over Northern Scandinavia while the Southern arm remains over North Africa and the Med.

UKMO tonight shows slowly rising pressure next week following the changeable patterns of the weekend. Showers would generally become more scattered with time with plenty of dry and bright weather possible. With winds settling between NW and NE it will never be overly warm especially overnight.

GEM tonight shows the UK based trough persisting with showers or rain at times scattered about over the UK mixed with some dry and bright spells. Later next week renewed Low pressure feeds down from the NW renewing the threat of more persistent rain and showers over the UK in time for the Bank Holiday weekend.

NAVGEM shows a temporary improvement next week as something of a ridge from the Atlantic High slides down over the UK early in the week. The showers or rain at the weekend would be replaced by several dry and bright days with just a few showers here and there. Later in the week pressure falls again with showers or rain becoming more noticeable again over the UK particularly in the North and East.

ECM tonight also shows some changes with the unsettled weekend likely to give way to a West/East split next week as a Low slips SE to the East of the UK with it's attendant cool and showery weather restricted to more Eastern areas while the West shows fine and bright conditions albeit with Northerly winds it would still feel cool for many with the risk of grass frost in the North overnight. Towards the Bank Holiday all areas look dry and bright for the first few days as a ridge crosses East over Britain. Following on behind for the second half of the weekend is Low pressure moving down from the NW to bring all areas back into showery and rather cool conditions.

In Summary there are some slender improvements in some of the output tonight with next week seeing a fair share of dry and bright weather once this weekends unsettled weather moves away South early next week. With the Atlantic High trying desperately hard to throw it's influence towards the UK it succeeds to some degree for a time. However, while it stays West of the UK a temporary ridge is the best we can hope for which is borne out tonight as Low pressure from GEM and ECM makes certain that any change to a prolonged dry and warm UK wide spell is still a way off renewing the UK trough at some point close to the Bank Holiday weekend. It should begin to feel somewhat warmer by day Nationwide though in any sunny spells.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is very good for those of us who are wanting a spell of settled and warmer weather, the gefs has been showing an encouraging trend for many days now and continues to build on that idea, it would become warm over the uk next week with pressure rising significantly, indeed, pressure remains relatively high for the majority of the run with the atlantic/azores high always fairly close to the uk and no sign of any cool and unsettled plunge from the north. Let's hope the 00z continues the eastward shift in the overall pattern and that we finally get a nice warm spell for all areas for the first time this spring.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[mountain shadow]

Undoubtedly the ECM has strenghtened the Azores ridge along the lines of what the GFS has been showing for a few days. Yes the ECM goes unsettled again later in its output, but this is a step change this evening and a big straw to clutch at.

Western parts couls be looking at a nice 3-5 day warm settled spell at a minimum. Much needed I can tell you.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

evening all bank holiday weather is  looking a  wash out  at the   moment!!!

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes phil, perhaps a better sounding met office update will be in order tomorrow if this trend continues on the 00z.

Ummgh, Hi Frosty, don't think the met=office will update tomorrow just based on one run!!  

[Frosty.]

Ummgh, Hi Frosty, don't think the met=office will update tomorrow just based on one run!!  

By the time they update the (6-15 day) there will have been 3 more runs so they will if this improvement continues. (18z/00z/06z)

 

try being more positive, there are good things to take out of the 12z output this evening that were lacking this morning.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[legritter]

Well it certainly looks like a very unsettled weekend but detail even at this fairly short range is currently a bit not sure .then next week high pressure seems to push systems quickly away south from our shores ,but trying to put detail past this is proving very difficult . even if high pressure sets up more over us which is possible it would take a while for temp to be classed as well up on normal .but if warmth does come off i for one will be cheering it on, although i am an  action weather watcher the past 12 months have provided plenty of action so i will be happy with a nice warm settled spell .tonights Met Office Fax should be interesting .will it bring fronts further south ,that was the original thinking a couple of days ago and if you look at pressure forecasts for the beginning of next week it does in my opinion suggest that central and southern parts could cop the lot sat and sunday ,just my little take on affairs ,cheers gang 

[049balt]

Ireland will be the place to be next week as the ECMWF seems to be building stronger tonight.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013051612!!/

[Guest pjl20101]

Looking pretty much exactly the same according to the CPC 8-14 day output tonight with a +ve sign across the country except for one thing that its not as windy on this run:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Pretty pleasing run really that will probably take us into June.

[rory o gorman]

pub run no wobbles so far , looking more and more likely of a warm up at last!

[nitro_deluxe]

So we may scrape a 20c somewhere before May is out? Yippee..

[Evening thunder]

I notice the ECM ensemble mean has backed off it's northerly tonight, this is the mean at 168 hours:

 

So interesting the mean has backed off more compared to the operational at 168 hours which is a bit further east tonight but still with cold uppers for a bit though not quite as cold or long lasting as this morning

[CongletonHeat]

Much better output today but the pessimist in me expects the ECM to flip back to wet rubbish again by tomorrow and be right to.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly it seems as though the means and operational runs have all come up with a more settled picture from the west, warm but potentially cloudy in the east.

[mountain shadow]

Looks like an about turn from the GFS overnight

Settled next week particularly for the West then cooler again and wetter for all as thé trough moves down from the North.