Chase Day 12 Discussion - Moderate Risk (OK/KS/MO/IL)

[Boro Snow]

Jeez! they were incredibly lucky! How could a school in Oklahoma not have a storm shelter that's terrible 

these mixed reports but the kids that are safe n well were taken from the school to a church before the tornado hit, but they was still 75 kids n teachers in the school when it hit

[chionomaniac]

The cell developed a large tornado about 25 mins after initiation and continued to produce a tornado for 40+ minutes along approx 20 mile path.

 

The damage path is very significant Roger, and as bad if not worse than May 3rd 1999. Fatalities will likely increase in number as the night goes on.The situation in C OK may be easing a bit now but the storms down near Ardmore need watching.

Yes and the tornado became very large, very quickly. From rope to cone to stove to wedge in a couple of minutes. Those in Moore would have had some warning but will have been undone by the sheer size and others trying to flee as well. A dreadful tornado to watch live.

[Arron]

Given up on the Pauls valley one a while back and heading down towards Ardmore

[nitro_deluxe]

The only modicum or crumb of hope from all of this, must be more lessons learned re further prediction and detection of these ever present tornadic conditions - thus possibly increasing chances of awareness which i'd only imagine must remain key.Whilst some no doubt shall be feeling guilty of actually going storm chasing, quite naturally, more eyes and ears on the ground can not be always a bad thing. Vigilance is increased and especially when minutes even seconds can count.

Our heart sincerely goes out to all those affected.

[HeadcornWx]

Glad the team all ok. Total Devastation up around moore. Watching coverage on http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

.

[Roger J Smith]

Update, Ardmore cell appears F2 intensity and is about 5 miles west of there about to cross I-35 around 2248z.

 

Stronger cell near TX-OK border is about one hour from reaching I-35 near the TX-OK border between Marietta OK and Gainesville TX although recent motion has been wobbly the general track is due east at present, could end up right over the lake or south shore, my ETA for I-35 is 2345z to 0005z or about one hour from now. Gap between cells could allow for positioning but dangerous situation given river crossing and possible stalled traffic issues.

[nitro_deluxe]

Stay safe all.

[Boro Snow]

cant watch anymore, i hope these not as much fatalities as it looks, i hope the team are ok and my prays go out to all those affected

[PolarWarsaw]

Confirmed as 6 fatalities, sadly you'd only have to imagine that will be multiple hugely as time goes on. Towards 3 figures perhaps?

[Tamara]

I see pictures like this and the devastation of two miles and more of flying lethal debris at what (150mph? and more?) , and all the carnage, the school, the children and people in general....and then think of the video I always wished I had never watched of the Joplin massive tornado a year or so back that captured inside footage of the people screaming and praying in the blackness and the deafening roar of the tornado, and the same images come back to me of a very similar unspeakable terror and horror that must surely have been relived again today in Moore

 

It is just way way too big and distressing to try and imagine how horrific such an experience like this could be....

Edited May 20, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Roger J Smith]

Next hour very unpredictable as TX-OK border cell collides with left-moving severe cell near Bowie TX, I am thankful that the team has onboard radar because something very severe could develop out of this mess, in the general vicinity of Gainesville TX and within the next hour (the most likely tornadic zone from all this is probably about ten miles west of Gainesville at about 00z or 7 pm CDT give or take 20 mins and 10 miles). The Ardmore cell has probably crossed the I-35 by now and has done whatever it came to do in that region.

 

On the subject of schools having or not having shelters, I believe some of them have contingency plans with nearby buildings to move kids into shelters there, but warning times in this case were insufficient to make that either feasible or even physically possible. This was evidently a high risk type day with a PDS but was being run as a moderate risk no PDS, which would tend to have the forecasting community and general public at a lower state of vigilance perhaps? Not intended as a criticism, I am fully aware of the challenges and the daily cycle of storms at this time of year, you have to assess them as you see them and hindcasting not a very useful technique except for research, but that's how I would read this situation. And I wouldn't call off a planned storm chase opportunity, our chasers and the interest generated can only be a positive in terms of improving awareness, understanding and eventually forecasting precision. The NWS and private forecasters can only do so much, the thing that will eventually reduce human casualty tolls is the awareness of all individuals in the risk zones, and their own planning and response strategies. We can forecast these things to the nth degree but if the general public don't know or don't respond then people will continue to die or be injured. If they do know and do respond, they will be safer and have only property loss to deal with, bad enough, but things can be replaced, people can't.

Edited May 20, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[alexisj9]

Persistent circulation on the cell W of Montague:

 

rad_ref_vel.png

 

Two chasers down there with streams that don't work. 

A lot of streams do not seem to be working well tonight, may be some cell towers have gone down.

Edited May 20, 2013 by alexisj9

[PolarWarsaw]

2-3 tornadoes on the ground, one near Ardmore, one 100 miles south west of Dallas and another further north.

[NL]

Time-lapse video of the 'Moore' tornado shot from News9 helicopter.

 

http://5stateweather.com/index.php/articles/1-articles/122-video-timelapse-of-moore-ok-tornado

[Roger J Smith]

The Red River cell absorbed the Bowie cell like a whale swallowing a dolphin, now we seem to have a 20-mile long east-west supercell similar to last night's set-up that could drop multiple vortices, I hope the NW chasers are past Ardmore and on or over the bridge as traffic could be halted soon on the I-35.

 

Storm threats will be multiple and generally moving east but recycling, in the general vicinity of south and west of Gainesville to south of Ardmore. This strikes me as being a PDS (particularly dangerous situation) and I would want to have a southern exit road available at all times.

[Tamara]

uff, no. Up to 24 approx children trying to be located in the wreckage  Its being compared to the Joplin tornado in terms of how explosive it was starting from nothing in such a short period of time..up to the same estimated EF5 strength

Edited May 20, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Roger J Smith]

Current radar:

 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=fws&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

 

The Ardmore cell apparently redeveloped east of the town and seems to have an F-2 tornado heading east.

 

The Gainesville complex is continuously recycling and looks more like a straight-line damaging wind producer at this point, but could become tornadic at any point.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[lfcdude]

Sad news coming from news 9 from another school.

[PolarWarsaw]

Sad news from the local medical examiner, a huge jump in fatalities. 37 now confirmed as dead with 7 being children from the Plaza Towers Elementary school.

Such a shame.

[lfcdude]

Piers Morgan @ piersmorgan47s

UPDATE: At least 51 now confirmed dead in #Oklahoma tornado. Will have all the latest breaking news at 9pmET. #CNN

 

 

R.I.P

[Sno' problem]

A devastating blow for a community that have suffered enough in recent years... My thoughts are with the bereaved and displaced.

 

I hope the chasers haven't put themselves in the firing-line! Take care all!!

 

(EDIT: 24 children still unaccounted for according to CNN... Tragic!)

Edited May 21, 2013 by Sno' problem

[Gorky]

Sickening to watch. We stayed south as it headed through Moore on SW 19th street. The tornado paralleled this road about half a mile north as it crossed I35. We ended up flying east to pick up the wife and kid of a guy we were chasing with and fled south with debris falling around us. Ended up watching the storm head off east whilst we waited for a clearing to get back north. No damage at the house but tons of metal and insulation scattered across the roads, fields and roofs. Headed south out of the metro immediately after. Traffic was insane and didn't need any more vehicles, though I wish there was something we could have done to help. Chased a few other cells later but kinda halfhearted. Abandoned chase knowing we were going to have a long drive to bypass the damaged areas.

[Winter Warmer]

really brings to reality how dangerous these tornados can be 

[Boro Snow]

91 now dead and its expected to rise. Heartbreaking

[Boro Snow]

91 dead and its expected to rise. Heartbreaking