July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

[Scorcher]

The fact that the heat was entirely encapsulated within the calendar month is partly what gave a higher chance of 19C+. I wonder how different Summer would have been viewed if exactly the same heat was spread over the end of July and into August so that CET values for each of those months were not anywhere near as high as the value for this month. What effect would that have on peoples' opinions of the Summer?

 

Well if it had included tomorrow it probably would have risen again, you can look at it both ways. I think even if you include June it has been at least a good summer so far, June wasn't bad at all overall, if a little cool. In any case we don't know what August is going to bring yet- it's certainly going to start off on an above average note.

[AderynCoch]

1st-2nd August will be significantly warmer than 1st-2nd July.

 

Not sure about the following couple of days.

[Milhouse]

The fact that the heat was entirely encapsulated within the calendar month is partly what gave a higher chance of 19C+. I wonder how different Summer would have been viewed if exactly the same heat was spread over the end of July and into August so that CET values for each of those months were likely not anywhere near as high as the value for this month. What effect would that have on peoples' opinions of the Summer?

 

Say July will be above the 81-10 average by 1.8c. Even if you split that anomaly over July and August so each one was above average by 0.9c you would still have July 17.6c and August 17.3c.

 

Thats a July/August combination along the lines of 1959,1984 or 1991.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Well if it had included tomorrow it probably would have risen again, you can look at it both ways. I think even if you include June it has been at least a good summer so far, June wasn't bad at all overall, if a little cool. In any case we don't know what August is going to bring yet- it's certainly going to start off on an above average note.

June was very dependent on where you were. While the west had pleasant sunshine, In the eastern third it wasn't cool but pretty much cold, and grey with prevailing easterly winds. For much of the period we only saw the sun break through around 6pm in the evening.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Say July will be above the 81-10 average by 1.8c. Even if you split that anomaly over July and August so each one was above average by 0.9c you would still have July 17.6c and August 17.3c. Thats a July/August combination along the lines of 1959,1984 or 1991.

An average(81-10) august wold give us a summer average anomoly of about +0.25 and put us around 50-60thth warmest summer on record so in the top 15% or so.Even on more recent sets (say 20th Century or later) it would be in the top 20% of warmest summers.To get in the top ten warmest summers August CET would need to be as warm or warmer than July, and that looks unlikely on the forecasts we have currenty.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Well based on the daily list looks like a big downward correction to 18.34 - ie 18.3!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

two months in a row now with a big downwards correction.

Edited August 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[reef]

Confirmed as 18.3C:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

As mentioned its a 0.4C downwards correction and the joint 10th warmest on record.

[Relativistic]

This July was ranked joint with the following years in terms of CET:

1701

1733

1859

1868

[Scorcher]

Disappointed with that downward correction- do they ever give an explanation after such corrections? I know that one of the stations is Stonyhurst which is a rural site in Lancashire, the readings there would have been much lower than the other sites I imagine and not reflective of the month in urban areas.

Edited August 1, 2013 by Scorcher

[cheese]

Indeed, I'd like to know why they have such big downward corrections, or any at all. Any explanation would be helpful.

Edited August 1, 2013 by cheese

[Scorcher]

Indeed, I'd like to know why they have such big downward corrections, or any at all. Any explanation would be helpful.

 

And why the corrections vary so much.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Disappointed with that downward correction- do they ever give an explanation after such corrections? I know that one of the stations is Stonyhurst which is a rural site in Lancashire, the readings there would have been much lower than the other sites I imagine and not reflective of the month in urban areas.

 

All sites are meant to be rural, but over time I believe they have been encroached to different degrees by building so there is some correction for this. I haven't found a specific reason for the corrections, and its worth noting on a daily basis they can go up or down but on average over a month they tend to go down. If anyone knows of a methodology paper though that explains the exact method used I would be interested.

[Scorcher]

It might be worth one of us contacting the Met Office to find out perhaps? Or maybe there is someone on the forums who knows more.

[March Blizzard]

If corrections are purely to compensate for the UHI effect then why are they sometimes corrected upwards? I'm sure November 2012 had a slight upward correction, if I recall correctly.

 

To be honest, I'm not sure why they correct regardless; the temperature is the temperature. It should be noted/acknowledged if the site in question has been subjected to increasing urbanisation to account for any rise in temperature. It just doesn't seem right, to me, to essentially tamper with the figures the stations give.

 

Anyway, the 0.4C downwards correction (July) has made my guess within 0.5C for at least 2 months running, so happy days!

[Relativistic]

I think it was October last year that had a small upward correction.

[reef]

Just a guess, but perhaps for the provisional figure they use a few select sites but for the final one they use a larger selection?

[J10]

Scores for the comp will be published over the weekend.

[Summer Sun]

At least the run of below average months is finally over here's to an extended run of above average months now

[J10]

Scores for the comp will be published over the weekend.

 

This month's winner AWD who got it spot on.

Roger J Smith was 0.1c out and his victory bid scuppered by the big downwards correction.

 

AtlanticFlamethrower and ihatetherain were both 0.2c out.

 

Less new players meant processing this month was a bit better than expcted, so the results also a bit earlier than expected.

 

July 2013 CET.xls

 

July 2013 CET.pdf

 

In the seasonal comp, a complete change at the top with the new 1-2-3 March Blizzard, coram and Harve

 

Overall, the seasonal form of March Blizzard, gives 1st place, Mulzy up to 2nd with Weather History in 3rd.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Jackone

[Relativistic]

At least the run of below average months is finally over here's to an extended run of above average months now

Nah, here's to a return to below average months.

[AderynCoch]

Nah, here's to a return to below average months.

Starting in October...

[Froze were the Days]

let the cooling months continue....

[summer blizzard]

Not the best result result but still 7th for summer and 5th for the year, my best performances to date to this period.

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks a lot, downward correction unit.

 

That was a lot of fun anyway, on to the next mystery tour.

[Methuselah]

Well done all you guys that got close...