July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

[SomeLikeItHot]

Doing my best Roger J smith's impersonation. (as for his request on the june thread)

 

CET averages and extremes

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

 

 

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983

18.8 ... 1783

18.7 ... 1976

18.7 ...  1852

 

16.5 ... average for 2001-2012

16.7 ... average for 1981-2010,

16.5 ... average for 1971-2000

16.1 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... average for all years 1659-2012,

15.8 ... average for  1801-1900

15.5 ... 2012 mean

15.4 ... average for 1659-1700

 

13.5 ... 1695,1816

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 

 8.7  ... 20th (1836)  coldest daily mean

 

[J10]

Hope you don't mind me changing the name on the thread, I only put 2012-13 competition on for December not intending for this to to be used during the year.

[SomeLikeItHot]

No of course not. Just did a cut and paste job from June and changed the month.

[CongletonHeat]

15.7

[SteveB]

15.6c

[Summer Sun]

16.8c

[masheeuk]

15.9c

[summer blizzard]

A little unsure but i shall go for 16.2C for now, 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average.

[NeilN]

16.7c - I think we've an average month on the cards.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the July CET from 1659 to 2012, with the 10 year mean in red and the trend in black.

 

 

The correlation between June and July CET values is +0.28, which is about average for month to month CET correlations and indicates that a most cooler than average June month and followed by a cooler than average July, and warmer June's followed by warmer July CETs.

Th correlation between the July of one year and the following is just 0.05, so not significant at all.

[hillbilly]

17.3 will be my guess,about time we had something warmer

[IanR]

a little unsure 15.5c, but I can  say a long term below average figure will occur for sure

[Lettucing Gutted]

20C

[Stargazer]

16.3 for me.

[Roger J Smith]

Hey that was easy now wasn't it? 

 

17.1 probably too optimistic but sooner or later the trend has to reverse. 

[Terminal Moraine]

Sod it, I'll go with what I hope for; 13.7c

[summer blizzard]

Sod it, I'll go with what I hope for; 13.7c

 

Frankly i'd love even a sub-15C summer month and i'd say that we are well overdue given that the last instance was i think in 1978.

[The PIT]

I'm going for 16.5C average but wouldn't be surprised to see the temp possibly higher and the first above average month for some time. Unless June manages it.

[Polar Maritime]

14.8c  would be nice ta.

[geoffw]

15.9

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.7. Warmer than last year, cooler than average.

[DiagonalRedLine]

I've looked at my magical crystal ball (which is 99.8% accurate) and it shows July's Cet ending up as 16.2*C - so that will be my guess.

[Staffordshire]

30, i can dream eh?

Im guessing 17.0, good month i feel

[Milhouse]

I'm stuck between playing it safe or going for a hot month as the models suggest. I'm going to say 16.8c.

[AWD]

18.3 please