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July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

SomeLikeItHot
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

15.2 to the 5th

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

With a min today of 10.4  and average max across the region of near 23, we should see a rise tomorrow to 15.5

 

Using  met forecasts for locations for near the CET measuring locations, for 5 days gives.

 

5th 15.5  (16.7)

6th 16.0 (18.7)

7th 16.5 (19.5)

8th 17.0 (20.5)

9th 17.3 (19.9)

 

There after using the GFS ensemble mean

 

Remaining near 17.3-17.4 to the 13th

and then declining slightly to around 17.1 by the 20th.

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GRHinPorts Rookie

GRHinPorts

Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
Posted

Thanks SLitH for your explanation above. I suspect where I go wrong with where I think the CET should be is that I over estimate the minimums. Plus being in the south I suspect we enjoy on average a small bit of extra warmth that is not representative of the CET region. Perhaps just enough to distort my impression. 

 

This isn't just something I find in the Summer either. I remember last December thinking the month had generally been very mild, particularly the second half, and was very surprised the CET was bumbling along in the 4s.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

15.4C to the 5th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 16.5C. The minimum today is 11.6C while maxima look like reaching around 26C, so an increase to around 16.0C tomorrow is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

 

16.6C to the 7th (20.2)

16.9C to the 8th (19.3)

17.1C to the 9th (18.1)

17.2C to the 10th (18.7)

17.2C to the 11th (16.6)

17.3C to the 12th (18.5)

17.5C to the 13th (20.3)

 

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted (edited)

With a min today of 12.6 and max of around 26, we will probably see

 

Edited: extended my first version using the Met forecasts for near the CET measurement locations

 

7th 16.4 (19.25)

8th 16.9 (20.8 ) - higher minimums forecast for Monday.

9th 17.3 (19.8 )

10th 17.4 (19.0)

11th  17.4 (17.0)

 

GFS 6z ensemble mean would probably keep it  17.5 - 18 for most of the run after that  - potentially decline to closer to 17.5 at near the end but I haven't run through it as thoroughly as usual due to the good weather.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

My 16.5C is looking way too low. July is looking that it will end the run of under average tempatures by some way.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

My 16.5C is looking way too low. July is looking that it will end the run of under average tempatures by some way.

 

We are going to be mid 17 average later this week, but that is only 12 days in, I would think 16.5 would still be in the running as the weather could easily turn a week out from now and that is still 2 weeks to bring the average down only about 0.7 degrees. My 15.8 though is not looking great - but I would prefer this weather to continue and get it wrong!

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted (edited)

Certainly a warmer than average first third of July that's for sure.

The latest trend in the mean and height forecasts indicate some cooling beyond mid-month with thicknesses just falling away from the north somewhat.

Still looking fine and dry though even then with the Azores high continuing to ridge towards the UK especially for England/Wales.

Edited by phil nw.
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted (edited)

16.4 to the 7th. (Updated on the daily list not the front page.)

 

Min today of 13.7 Max likely around 26.5 so 16.9 tomorrow is likely with the first > 20 CET day for the year). using Met forecasts for 5 days near the CET area gives.

 

8th 16.9 (20.1)

9th  17.2 (19.6)

10th 17.4 (19.3)

11th 17.4  (17.2)

12th  17.4 (18.4)

 

After that the GFS 0z ensemble mean gives

13th  17.6 (19)

14th  17.5 (16.5)

 

There after the daily CET means hover around 17.2 towards 20th bringing the average to 17.2 - to 17.1 as it approaches the 25th.

 

Certainly the signal is still for a july CET most likely above all recent 30 year averages.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

If we're only in the low-mid 17s by the middle of the month then theres no guarantee we'll end above average, bearing in mind the 1981-2010 average is 16.7C!

 

It'll be interesting if that were to happen how this month would be viewed at the end.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

If we're only in the low-mid 17s by the middle of the month then theres no guarantee we'll end above average, bearing in mind the 1981-2010 average is 16.7C!

 

It'll be interesting if that were to happen how this month would be viewed at the end.

 

Most likely above but I agree no certainty to be above the 1981-2010 average. If we treated those forecasts as accurate for a week out and then  after the 14th the remainder of the month were to average the same as the  61-90 average CET for the remaining period ( which is 16.2 - for the 15th-31st of July)  then the final result would be very close to the 81-2010 average for july.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

16.8 to the 8th.

 

yesterday's max's turned out lower than forecast so we didn't get a 20 CET day (19.5).

 

Min today is 11.7 and max's near 25 in the CET area. Along with Met forecasts for the next 5 days should give 

 

9th 17.0  (18.6)

10th  17.1  (18.2)

11th  17.1 (17)

12th 17.2 (18.9)

13th 17.4 (19.2)

 

After that the GFS ensemble average has it failry steady at around 17.4 but has  trended a bit lower particularly after the 16th, and now showing a fall to 16.8 towards the 24th

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted

Looking at the 6z ensembles they are considerably colder from 1 week out than the 0z. The ensemble mean would potentially bring the average down to around 16.3 by the end of the run (24th) - ie making it possible to even go below the 61-90 average by month end. Would be quite a turn around from the weather at the moment.

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Best heatwave in 7 years? LOL this doesn't seem as good as July 2010 down her so far that was a great summer month.

 

It is for much of the country, how often has Scotland had 29C in the last 7 years? Not just about your own back yard!

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

It is for much of the country, how often has Scotland had 29C in the last 7 years? Not just about your own back yard!

Definitely not the best since 2006 here either - definitely many similar and better spells here since then, and certainly many higher temperatures recorded such as 29.0C in October 2011, 31C in June 2011, and so on.

Edited by cheese
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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Definitely not the best since 2006 here either - definitely many similar and better spells here since then, and certainly many higher temperatures recorded such as 29.0C in October 2011, 31C in June 2011, and so on.

 

What was your best spell cheese? Those are just individual high temperatures. It's about longevity as well.

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

What was your best spell cheese? Those are just individual high temperatures. It's about longevity as well.

July 2008 spell highs:

25C

23C

27C

27C

28C

25C

25C

26C

22C

 

June/early July 2009 spell highs:

23C

24C

26C

29C

26C

 

June/early July 2010 spell highs:

25C

26C

24C

23C

23C

26C

28C

26C

23C

25C

25C

25C

 

Sept/Oct 2011 spell highs:

24C

26C

28C

29C

29C

22C

26C

 

May 2012 spell highs:

23C

25C

26C

23C

23C

24C

26C

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

best heatwave here since 2006 for JULY,have had better junes ,mays ,Septembers and parts of august since then ,will have to scratch my head but am sure we have not had any hot periods in any july since 2006 except the odd couple of days

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Optimus Prime Rising Star

Optimus Prime

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted

It is for much of the country, how often has Scotland had 29C in the last 7 years? Not just about your own back yard!

I don't live in Scotland so I don't really have an opinion what it's been like there for the last 7 years. All I know is July 2010 was one of the warmest Julys on record for the SE region but June 2010 was one of the warmest on record for Scotland and Northern Ireland I think.

 

We have had better/just as good months since 2006.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

I would imagine it would be those in the east and southeast who would say that summer 2010 saw better spells of fine and warm weather whereas those in the north and west would say that this will be the best settled spell for 7 years. Its worth noting that its not done yet. The warmth keeps on going in the south till this time next week so by that time all locations may have seen their best summer spell for 7 years. Over here i would still rank late June/early July higher up until now but looking at the charts for that period they do look very mediocre and nothing like the stunning high pressure charts of recent days.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Author
Posted (edited)

17.0 to the 9th. 14.2 min and 24.5 maximum likely

10th 17.3 (19.4)

11th 17.3 (17.3)

12th 17.4 (17.4)

13th 17.5 (19.8 )

14th 17.6 (17.9)

there after the GFS ensemble mean trends down steadily to around 16.7 by the 25th.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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