July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

[damianslaw]

This July has surprised me, just like March did in terms of anomaly from the norm, especially given how recent months have panned out. Whether it is a minor blip in what has been a lengthy cool period remains to be seen, or could 2013 been an unusual year i.e. a very cool first half being cancelled out by a much milder than normal second half.

[Summer Sun]

18.8c to the 27th

[Summer Sun]

This July has surprised me, just like March did in terms of anomaly from the norm, especially given how recent months have panned out. Whether it is a minor blip in what has been a lengthy cool period remains to be seen, or could 2013 been an unusual year i.e. a very cool first half being cancelled out by a much milder than normal second half.

 

We had to get out of the run of below average months at some point and what a spectacular way to do it with the best weather we've had in July for 7 years hopefully now we're going to go into a run of above average months now for the 2nd half of the year

[sundog]

Summer Sun, on 28 Jul 2013 - 12:15, said:hopefully now we're going to go into a run of above average months now for the 2nd half of the year

Well as an Autumn/winter lover i hope not,im hoping this is just a blip but time will tell as always. Dont mind what happens up until the end of sept but after that i hope the below average months return.

[DAVID SNOW]

We had to get out of the run of below average months at some point and what a spectacular way to do it with the best weather we've had in July for 7 years hopefully now we're going to go into a run of above average months now for the 2nd half of the year

Are you hoping for a mild November and December then?

 

 .

[Summer Sun]

Are you hoping for a mild November and December then?

 

 .

 

We are bound to get another mild winter at some point they always crop up now and then after all this is the UK where the Atlantic often brings mild weather in winter

Edited July 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[sundog]

We are bound to get another mild winter at some point they always crop up now and then after all this is the UK where the Atlantic often brings mild weather in winter

The winter before last was a mild one overall -winter 2011-2012 ,that was also preceded by very mild Autumn. Edited July 28, 2013 by sundog

[DAVID SNOW]

We are bound to get another mild winter at some point they always crop up now and then after all this is the UK where the Atlantic often brings mild weather in winter

True, but I asked what 'you' were hoping for..........

[Summer Sun]

True, but I asked what 'you' were hoping for..........

 

I thought you'd know by now lol

 

Mild winters with short lived cold snaps suite me just fine

[DAVID SNOW]

I thought you'd know by now lol

 

Mild winters with short lived cold snaps suite me just fine

Yep I know

 

I would settle for a nice cold late November and December.

[Relativistic]

I'm hoping for an August perhaps slightly above average, but hopefully nothing like the last few weeks. Then, I want September onwards to be as cold as possible. Another below average year to join 2010 would be lovely.

[hillbilly]

This July has surprised me, just like March did in terms of anomaly from the norm, especially given how recent months have panned out. Whether it is a minor blip in what has been a lengthy cool period remains to be seen, or could 2013 been an unusual year i.e. a very cool first half being cancelled out by a much milder than normal second half.

Nigel Lawson once used the term 'blip' only it was'nt

[Summer Sun]

18.8c to the 28th

[SomeLikeItHot]

18.8c to the 28th

Min today of 15.6. Met forecasts would have the CET go29th 18.830th 18.731st 18.7With 18.7 looking to be favourite pre-correction outcome (although 18.6-18.8 is possible).So likely out come of 18.3 - 18.7 after corrections.

[SomeLikeItHot]

18.8 to the 29th.

With a min today of 13.1,and max around 21,

Its likely either 30th or 31st will fall to 18.7.

So the assement above stands 18.3-18.7 after corrections.

Also RJS looks like a near certain winner as I believe he owns that range of values.

Edited July 30, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Roger J Smith]

I don't own 18.3 so invoking the well-known RJS Must Lose rule, 18.3 is the odds-on favourite now.

 

But I've enjoyed the ride, feel badly for Robbie Garrett who won't get all the points he deserves for his manly effort.

[SomeLikeItHot]

If we get 18.3 we'll probably need a -0.4 correction which will be pretty much proof the Met office has a cooling agenda.

[BornFromTheVoid]

18.7C to the 30th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 17.6C. Today's minimum is 14.5C while maxima look like reaching about 22C, so we'll likely remain on 18.7C to finish the month before corrections.

 

So a finish after corrections of between 18.3 and 18.7C is likely.

[SomeLikeItHot]

18.7 would make it the equal 4th warmest July, while 18.3 would make it equal 10th warmest.

[BornFromTheVoid]

18.7C would make it the joint 4th largest June to July CET increase on record too (the highest being 1852 with a 13.2C June and 18.7C July)

[Scorcher]

Fingers crossed for a small correction, it's a slight shame that the very warm temperatures didn't hang on until the end of the month, this was a rare opportunity for a 19C+ month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Fingers crossed for a small correction, it's a slight shame that the very warm temperatures didn't hang on until the end of the month, this was a rare opportunity for a 19C+ month.

 

I'd say it was more the first 5 days, which averaged just 15.5C, and the well below average SSTs early in the month which prevented a 19C+ CET.

[Scorcher]

I'd say it was more the first 5 days, which averaged just 15.5C, and the well below average SSTs early in the month which prevented a 19C+ CET.

 

Yes I agree, the first few days were very cool. I don't think many would have expected it to be at 18.7C now after that first 5 days!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yes I agree, the first few days were very cool. I don't think many would have expected it to be at 18.7C now after that first 5 days!

 

 

I thought the month would be warm, but given the low SSTs and cool start, I didn't expect it to be quite this warm!

 

If those SSTs had been higher, the minima early in the month would have gotten a boost. The (from the provisional data) 1st to 15th minima average just 12.1C, which is close to average, while the 16th to 31st averaged 14.4C.

For the same time, the average maximum increased from just 23.4C to between 24.6C - 24.8C (depending on today's max).

 

 

The adjustments should be interesting anyway. Despite the stations being located away from urban centres, I wonder will adjustments from the UHI effect come into play more during hot spell?

[Relativistic]

The fact that the heat was entirely encapsulated within the calendar month is partly what gave a higher chance of 19C+. I wonder how different Summer would have been viewed if exactly the same heat was spread over the end of July and into August so that CET values for each of those months were likely not anywhere near as high as the value for this month. What effect would that have on peoples' opinions of the Summer?

Edited July 31, 2013 by 22nov10blast