The Midlands Regional Discussion 16th July 2013 onwards

[Costa Del Fal]

Sun breaking through now. 21c too!

[Gustywind]

Thanks supacell, so things hopefully hot up this afternoon then. Sun showing a few signs of trying to break through, but struggling much as it did yesterday.

[anvilcrawler]

Drive dwn to mothers and Sun has broke through and cloud is clearing pretty quickly now

[Coast]

 

Thunderstorms to hit region warns the Met Office

 

Violent thunderstorms will bring a dramatic end to the heatwave this week as the Midlands turned tropical with hot and humid temperatures today.

 

The UK has seen its longest prolonged heatwave in seven years. The mercury is expected to reach 33C (91.4F) today with the Midlands likely to be a hot spot. The Met Office has issued a wet weather warning for the Midlands tomorrow and say there could be a risk of flooding in some areas.

 

 

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2013/07/22/thunderstorms-to-hit-region-warns-the-met-office/

 

[Bishop Brennan]

As said over in the convective thread, the 18c theta-w plume is not over us yet and so the real juicy air is still to our south. Added to this the storms today are not going to be aided by surface heating and so basically it is irrelevant how much cloud there is.

 

This afternoon the high theta-w plume heads our way and over us all by late afternoon. Any sunshine that breaks through, which I am hopeful it will, should result in temperatures rocketing up to the high twenties, maybe 30c. I agree though, the limit will probably be 30c after such a slow start.

 

There may be a few storms this afternoon, breaking out in southern parts first and the area at risk spreads almost along the 18c theta-w plume. This evening and tonight will see storms pushing away north and east before an MCS moves up in the early hours and then offers us a day of thunderstorms tomorrow. Throughout there is the risk of intense lightning and very heavy torrential downpours, hail 2-3cm and gusty winds. Overall, by far the best storm potential this year.

 

Great post, cheers Supacell  Is there a chart whereby we can monitor the progress of the 18c theta-w plume?

 

The sun has been breaking through for the past hour or so here, currently 20.7c and warming up nicely.

 

Bish

[PolarWarsaw]

In my mind we have 3 chances. 

 

Last Night - Bust

This Afternoon - 

Midnight onwards.-

 

Need this cloud to shift ASAP.

[conor123]

Ufgh the North Sea grot holding film for a third day running and rather cool again to, 17.9c, definitely no 29/30c today now!, was expecting wall to wall sunshine today then convective potential later but typical if this grot doesn't lift that any convective opportunities will be squashed.

[Gustywind]

Sun trying its best to shift the cloud, up to 22c now just from an hours on/off sunshine.

[anvilcrawler]

Temp 22 and dp 16.1 at 11am according to weather online and with the new warnings for today from met office,I'm getting more hopeful of seeing some action later.

[Dancerwithwings]

 At 10 this morning it was dull and felt quite cool, But now its Brightened up loads and temps do reflected on that, In just over an hour ive gone up 4 degs.

 

23.5C atm and still rising.

[nitro_deluxe]

Any storms, should they develop later on, are going to be mainly localised in nature, slow moving but still potentially very active.

Overnight into tomorrow the more widespread fun'n'games should begin! Sleep'll be for wimps hehe..

[Bishop Brennan]

For those posters fretting about the cloud cover (or whatever is left of it): my understanding from posts within the convective thread is it shouldn't be an issue in this particular scenario.

 

22.7c here with a DP of 16.7c, and feeling very muggy now under the hazy sun.

 

Bish

Edited July 22, 2013 by Bishop Brennan

[nitro_deluxe]

No fret here more sunshine by the hour, Summer breeze, makes me feel fine..

[Costa Del Fal]

Very warm now. Humid too at 23c. Hazy sun still. Annoyed at how stubborn the cloud is here in the west today when further East its broken up! What sense is there in that! Expecting 29-31c IF the sun comes out properly today otherwise 26-27c.

[Staffordshire]

Sun breaking out here

[nitro_deluxe]

Sun breaking out here

Enjoy your chase later lol..really think you guys just a smidge further East are likely to see slightly more livelier action? This of course all subject to change and the opposite may happen Anyone who misses out completely may consider emigrating! Edited July 22, 2013 by triple_x1

[PolarWarsaw]

Milky skies with hazy sunshine, nothing spectacular and no convection whatsoever. Not optimistic.

[Costa Del Fal]

Paul Sherman offering a ray of hope:

 

"Finally getting clues on where the Convergence Zone is for today and where the expected Storms should fire, looks to be setting up from Western Parts of Suffolk and Cambs border across to Worcestershire and SE Wales area.

 

Would say anywhere North and North East of These areas have a pretty decent chance of a Surface Based Storm this afternoon, ascent could come from additional trigger over the Chilterns or Cotswolds for example.

 

Midlands looks perfectly placed "

 

------------

 

And indeed some convection getting going in S Wales now!

[Gustywind]

24.3c here now, hazy sunshine continuing. Still can't see us getting as high as 30c, which is a shame as we haven't exceeded it for the entire spell.

[Staffordshire]

Still hazy sun here not getting the full strength of it, 24.9c, looks asif storms will be moving more NE than we thought so i hope for more convection in S wales

[Bishop Brennan]

The temperature is definitely on the march now, up to 24.7c with a DP of 17.4c

 

The sun seems to be getting a bit stronger as well, much sharper outlines to the shadows being cast.

 

Bish

[conor123]

Convection seems to be going wild over Wales now, if only this haze would shift, finally brightened up but visibility is limited to about 2-3km.

[Eugene]

Have a bad feeling to be honest, better chance of winning the lottery than having severe thunderstorms nowadays in mid Warwickshire, even strato king conor has a better chance than me.

 

Just hope I don't just have horrible dirty looking skies with light rain like I always seem to get in thundery outbreaks.

[Dancerwithwings]

Temp 26.5c Dew point: 17.8, Still hazy skies here but with the sun been so strong you can really start to feel that heat and humidity,

No convection here but things can change very quickly........Just waiting

[JinxTheCat]

Had a report of thunder in Solihull, anyone confirm this?