Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

To be fair I've seen few if any posts saying it will stay hot and dry. What a few have been saying is the potential for conditions to improve at the end of next week which in this mornings output had pretty decent amount of support. Of course as the day has worn on the models have shifted the pattern eastwards meaning the south east only gets a glancing blow of continental warmth. To be fair any arguments and discussion has been between people who think there is the chance of another warm spell developing and those who think low pressure will park over the UK and to be honest at times today both sides have had a pretty good case. That's what happens when you get a fine line situation like this where only a hundred mile shift could mean the difference between hot and sunny and cool and wet.

Anyway today and marked the end of the run of 19 consecutive days where 28C or higher has been achieved in one or more locations. Saying that the maximum today was 27.9C at Norwich airport so that's a bit harsh to be honest.

Lets hope for some fireworks Saturday night 

Edited July 26, 2013 by chionomaniac
removed deleted post

[nitro_deluxe]

That's what I like..hard facts and occasionally a touch of harmless hope casting! Point scoring, finger pointing etc - no need, no ta.

Agree a few fireworks may be away from the norm or conditions that many have not yet been experiencing or ok even in some cases actually want. Can't help other folks preference either, afraid to say. We all have to give and take sometimes.

Almost an entire month of warmth sometimes hot is pretty good going if not slightly unprecedented, taking into account the past few Summers! Like it or lump it it's happening.

Edited July 25, 2013 by triple_x1

[Timmytour]

Ouch! I'm in Cornwall with the kids the week after next and not liking what the latest GFS is showing me for that period!Plenty of time for things to change so fingers are crossed. Used to go down there fairly regularly and always been amazed by the good weather I've been fortunate to have while there but not been since 2007. This may be the year the "wet weather" activity of going to the Eden Centre is finally called into play!on a more short term note, i have a feeling the storms in the South East forecast for saturday will not be as intense as has been predicted but that the rain will come earlier in the day. The rain seems to be modelled to creep in earlier and earlier and whereas i could envisage a full day's village cricket being played before the rain made its appearance, i now fancy that a good many games will end up being abandoned. i think tomorrow's runs might show a significant shift to an earlier timeframe, which might bode well for next week as the warmer southern air progresses further and further north 

[mushymanrob]

well, what a mixed bag this mornings runs suggest... generally the outlook for the forseeable future and into fi is changable, with the weather coming to us from off the atlantic (with a couple of more southerly incursions). chances of a re-load of the settled heat/high pressure dominance has diminished to all but nothing really.

 

however, this shouldnt come as any surprise as the anomaly charts (which john champions as perhaps the most reliable when theres a 3 run agreement) has had non of the re-load chances, and has now for several days broadly agree on an atlantic driven synoptic outlook. this mornings operationals are now tending in that direction stronger then recently.

 

 

so a mixed bag, warm, very nice in any sun, breezy at times, periods of rain/showers /thunderstorms. look likely as things stand atm.

 

not good weather for farmers though, who are looking for a period of warm dry weather as crops are nearly ready for harvesting.

[Captain Shortwave]

Sounds fair enough rob, it's just a case of looking out for any periods which we get the right side of the jet as there is some real serious heat developing to our south which would be lovely to tap even briefly.

ECM shows this well this morning and is actually consistent with its run last night

 

 

GFS is quite similar but the pattern is slacker and not as warm

Edited July 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Another hot thundery plume drifting north into the uk next week according to the Ecm 00z, temperatures into the mid to high 80's again, possibly 90 F plus in the southeast

 

This weekend also looks explosive with sunny starts giving way to thunderstorms and tomorrow the added complication of a thundery plume spreading up from france into the south & southeast, there is a threat of flooding in prone areas, sunshine and thunderstorms nationwide on sunday and then the unsettled spell persists into next week, becoming drier and sunnier across the southeast of the uk for a time but continuing unsettled in the north and west with temperatures closer to average but warm for the south/east....then HOTTING UP again as a trough to the southwest and high pressure to the southeast enables another hot continental plume to waft up into the uk, I hope the ecm is right, there is a good chance it will be since the ukmo 00z also shows a warm cyclonic spell next week, very warm and sultry further southeast with T-Storms, loving this tropical weather

[chionomaniac]

Yet again one of the team has had to clear up the off topic discussion and move posts to the correct thread. Please stay on topic and if there is a truly offensive post please report it. However, of you don't like what someone says then discuss in a sensible evidence based way, or ignore it.

[Troubleatmill]

Looking through the EPS members, there is a huge amount of uncertainty next week, again with the positioning of the trough, west, southwest, northwest, over us, north, way north. i may be wrong but believe a lot will depend on how high pressure is to our north, the trough will go where it can the easiest, Like a high wanting to sink south.

 

TBH ive not seen much trolling, maybe the odd one but most of it it normal healthy debate.

Edited July 26, 2013 by tempestas

[shedhead]

Without question there is a fair amount of disagreement this morning regarding detail next week, with UKMO probably the least favourable for warmth/heat at 144hrs.

 

GFS and ECM are similar in evolution at that time, but the latter does pump up some significantly higher 850's for a time on Thursday before much cooler, locally windy weather sweeps east again on Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing to say ECM will be wrong at this stage, but even if it does verify any high temps will probably be restricted to the E/SE, because the system itself will bring a good deal of cloud and rain for many. 

 

All talk of 'tropical', 'sultry' etc for next week is rather misleading imo.  Yes there is a chance of some more hot weather briefly for a time, but the next week to 10 days still looks pretty average for most,

with ECM in particular actually trending quite cool later in the output. 

Edited July 26, 2013 by shedhead

[shedhead]

Looking through the EPS members, there is a huge amount of uncertainty next week, again with the positioning of the trough, west, southwest, northwest, over us, north, way north. i may be wrong but believe a lot will depend on how high pressure is to our north, the trough will go where it can the easiest, Like a high wanting to sink south.

 

TBH ive not seen much trolling, maybe the odd one but most of it it normal healthy debate.

Given the timescale involved I would not describe the above as showing 'huge amounts of uncertainty' to be honest tempestas. There is pretty decent agreement on LP over or close to the UK, which at 6 days hence is about as good as it gets in this kind of setup.  Clearly some of the charts would produce very different results at any one location, but the overall pattern is fairly solid imo. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yet again whilst we can have good confidence in the broad pattern. We still don't have much confidence in the surface conditons unless you live in the extreme NW or SE where each is closest to the two players in this set-up. 

One good thing this morning is the UKMO shift westwards of Saturday nights low (now more in line with the other models) which means many southeastern areas have a good chance of seeing some hopefully spectacular thundery downpours.

Edited July 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

Next week continues to look unsettled for a lot of the UK.. Tho, the south east will be very warm at times, and this could extend further east and north for a time, before cooler conditions return by the weekend

, having said that, there are signs of a pressure rise at the end of the ecms run, and the gfs is also showing this. So, we will have to see how the runs evolve.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z looks warm and unsettled with sunny spells and scattered thundery downpours next week with the southeast probably having the best of the warmest sunniest and driest spells but this weekend shows a mass of torrential rain with embedded thunderstorms sweeping north across the whole of the uk as a thundery plume drifts north out of france, once the main zone of thundery rain has cleared north, it's a mix of sunshine and scattered thundery showers, into next week there is more heavy rain spreading from southwest to northeast and either side, a mix of sunshine and heavy showers, eventually the gfs shows the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging northeastwards into the southern half of the uk with a fine and warm spell towards mid august. At least next week shows generally above average temperatures, warm and humid for most and occasionally very warm or hot and sultry towards the southeast of the BI.

[Troubleatmill]

Given the timescale involved I would not describe the above as showing 'huge amounts of uncertainty' to be honest tempestas. There is pretty decent agreement on LP over or close to the UK, which at 6 days hence is about as good as it gets in this kind of setup.  Clearly some of the charts would produce very different results at any one location, but the overall pattern is fairly solid imo. 

Sorry shedhead but disagree, LP over us us nor not over us, will kind of make a huge difference to the weather we have. (fair weather and sunny periods or wind and rain?) im simply saying that all the talk of the atlantic coming crashing through isnt right, as you said yourself...'in this set up'. Although i agree that the GEFS ensembles paint a poor picture, The ecm ensembles are far more uncertain 

Edited July 26, 2013 by tempestas

[Troubleatmill]

18 GFS pretty much backs it 12 run, with LP taking over from the west next week and later drifting away eastwards, eventually opening the door to a flow from a northerly quarter.

 

So IF correct we will see temperatures gradually tailing off later next week, with even a cool feel developing across parts of the north and west in particular, especially where it is raining.

 

I'd like to say deep FI offers some hope of another pressure build, but frankly it doesn't..at least not yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure about no sign Shed,

 

 

Edited July 26, 2013 by tempestas

[shedhead]

Not sure about no sign Shed,

 

Don't forget.....no one looks at FI on here....

 

Can you provide the link for those anoM charts plz? Seem to have lost mine here.

Edited July 26, 2013 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

as always one chart does not prove anything. It is the overall picture that is the key, how long the pattern has been predicted, how many models are showing this. The 3 anomaly charts I use have +ve heights at 500mb over an area further east than the UK with the UK more affected by an upper trough in the 6-15 day time scale. Obviously the one you show is beyond that period so I am unable to compare like with like.

yes as shed asks the link would be handy please?

Edited July 26, 2013 by johnholmes

[shedhead]

as always one chart does not prove anything. It is the overall picture that is the key, how long the pattern has been predicted, how many models are showing this. The 3 anomaly charts I use have +ve heights at 500mb over an area further east than the UK with the UK more affected by an upper trough in the 6-15 day time scale. Obviously the one you show is beyond that period so I am unable to compare like with like.

yes as shed asks the link would be handy please?

I think tempestas probably posted that T+384hr anom chart tongue in cheek John....or maybe not

[Cloud 10]

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe

 

[Troubleatmill]

Don't forget.....no one looks at FI on here....

 

Can you provide the link for those anoM charts plz? Seem to have lost mine here.

 

Here you go Shed http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=12

[shedhead]

Tks guys.

[Troubleatmill]

I think tempestas probably posted that T+384hr anom chart tongue in cheek John....or maybe not

 

Yes, a bit tongue in cheek but not totally shed mate FI charts will always show a particular chart you are looking for somewhere amongst them, John you will have forgotten more about the weather than i know, like most posters on here we banter between ourselves and perk up when someone really knowledeable posts..Yourself, Chio, TWS and BA

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is less progressive than the 00z operational which means we don't get that cool Northerly plunge towards the end of the run which is good news, the trough later next week is very slow moving and we remain within the warm and muggy showery airmass instead, before that, there is also a trend towards another hot, thundery plume next week as a trough digs down to the southwest of the uk with high pressure building across the near continent, this is a recipe for hot and sultry continental air to again invade at least the southern half of the uk towards the middle of next week with another thundery outbreak and temperatures into the high 20's to low 30's celsius, this weekend looks similar with a very warm and muggy few days ahead as a thundery plume spreads up from france which will just be like pouring petrol on a fire and significantly boosting the thundery activity with torrential downpours and localised flooding, early next week looks a little fresher with more of an atlantic sw'ly flow with the most unsettled weather becoming more focused on the west and north with the south and east becoming sunnier and drier for a time as pressure rises to the southeast, then that next hot and thundery plume by midweek through to the end of next week, it's looking like a rinse and repeat pattern for the next 7-10 days.

Edited July 26, 2013 by Frosty039

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is less progressive than the 00z operational which means we don't get that cool Northerly plunge towards the end of the run which is good news, the trough later next week is very slow moving and we remain within the warm and muggy showery airmass instead, there is also a trend towards another hot, thundery plume next week as a trough digs down to the southwest of the uk with high pressure building across the near continent, this is a recipe for hot and sultry continental air to again invade at least the southern half of the uk towards the middle of next week with another thundery outbreak and temperatures into the high 20's to low 30's celsius, this weekend looks similar with a very warm and muggy few days ahead as a thundery plume spreads up from france which will just be like pouring petrol on the fire and significantly boosting the thundery activity with torrential downpours and localised flooding, early next week looks a little fresher with more of an atlantic sw'ly flow with the most unsettled weather becoming more focused on the west and north with the south and east becoming sunnier and drier for a time as pressure rises to the southeast, then that hot and thundery plume by midweek through to the end of next week.

Liking these charts Frosty. To see real fireworks though, we would ideally want the Eastern flank of that low to draw up more of a direct S flow, will still be thundery nevertheless if it came off Edited July 26, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Troubleatmill]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is less progressive than the 00z operational which means we don't get that cool Northerly plunge towards the end of the run which is good news, the trough later next week is very slow moving and we remain within the warm and muggy showery airmass instead, there is also a trend towards another hot, thundery plume next week as a trough digs down to the southwest of the uk with high pressure building across the near continent, this is a recipe for hot and sultry continental air to again invade at least the southern half of the uk towards the middle of next week with another thundery outbreak and temperatures into the high 20's to low 30's celsius, this weekend looks similar with a very warm and muggy few days ahead as a thundery plume spreads up from france which will just be like pouring petrol on the fire and significantly boosting the thundery activity with torrential downpours and localised flooding, early next week looks a little fresher with more of an atlantic sw'ly flow with the most unsettled weather becoming more focused on the west and north with the south and east becoming sunnier and drier for a time as pressure rises to the southeast, then that hot and thundery plume by midweek through to the end of next week.

 

Very well put Frosty, sums up next week in my eyes