Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[Milhouse]

In the reliable time frame it looks certain that there will be a slight cool down over the weekend before temperatures rise once again into the start of next week. Next week looks like showers, some heavy and thundery, will become more widespread as the week goes on with temperatures falling from highs of 30/31c at the start of the week to the low to mid 20s to end the week. From then its too far out to assume anything but low pressure gathering to the west is shown by the ECM and GFS tonight. The GEFS mean indicates a southerly flow is favoured for next weekend with temperatures more likely to be warm than cool.

 

[Paul]

Trolling and bickering aren't the way forward in here, nor is jumping down peoples throats just because they have a different opinion to the one you may want to read. Please just keep it to the models, and keep it friendly, thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

Plenty of energy in the atmosphere for the chart below to result in some scattered very heavy downpours with hail and thunder by as early as Monday.. 

Lets hope these storms are not like the ones in that "plume" event last month  

Anyone who wants the heat to continue for a little while longer, you can clutch straws, I mean believing that somehow the GEM and JMA are correct and the big 3 are wrong.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Jason H]

Looks like I'm timing my departure to Menorca on Tuesday about right where it looks like turning fiercely hot. For the UK, the models seem to be agreeing on a more unsettled spell of weather possible from late this weekend in the SW then spreading North and East through to midweek. Hot at first, but gradually moderating by this time next week. Reasoned and detailed explanation by Old Met Man again. Good to have someone of his calibre on here. It's easy to ignore quality post like this and comment on the obvious wind up merchants.

[Frosty.]

There is solid cross model agreement that after a relatively cooler but still very pleasant blip tomorrow, our weather will be hotting up again from sunday through to the middle of next week as we draw continental heat and higher humidity northwards across the whole of the uk, the biggest thing we will notice next week will be the increasing humidity and nights will become very uncomfortable with minimum temperatures sticking in the high teens to low 20's celsius at night and daytime maximum temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80's for the north but for southern britain and especially the southeast nearer to the low 90's F and it will feel even hotter than it has so far due to the soaring humidity. As our anticyclone slowly migrates to the north or northeast of the uk, pressure will be falling across the uk, especially to the south and west with thunderstorms becoming more widespread as the week goes on but still with long spells of scorching sunshine, the storms will be more miss than hit on mon/tues but by midweek onwards it looks like most areas will be at risk of thunderstorms but will still be very warm and humid. I think the speed of the breakdown is still unclear, it could remain hotter and drier for longer than this evening's 12z output shows but there is nothing cool about next week, it will become even hotter and more humid and still be at least warm and humid by the end of next week with sunshine and thunder showers, the parched gardens need some rain and will get some, in my opinion, the models, especially the ecm 12z are showing the perfect pay off for this fantastic heatwave.

 

Anyway, enjoy these charts, the BEST is still to come with our classic heatwave, most of next week looks fantastic for storm enthusiasts and sun bathers alike, oh, and not forgetting the BBQ.. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looks like I'm timing my departure to Menorca on Tuesday about right where it looks like turning fiercely hot. For the UK, the models seem to be agreeing on a more unsettled spell of weather possible from late this weekend in the SW then spreading North and East through to midweek. Hot at first, but gradually moderating by this time next week. Reasoned and detailed explanation by Old Met Man again. Good to have someone of his calibre on here. It's easy to ignore quality post like this and comment on the obvious wind up merchants.

Hope the pilot on your flight takes great care up there, could be a bit bumpy!! Very warm uppers over France as displayed on Tuesday leading to some monstrous storms and probably MCS's. 

As for the Balearics, super hot uppers of 20c+ up to 25c perhaps over there, so no shortage of stifling heat thats for sure! Storms a possibility too.

[OldMetMan]

Further to my earlier post, these basically depict the alternate development I mentioned, with no breakthrough jet and slowly rising pressure, rebuilding from the north. It will be interesting to see which will prevail.

[Costa Del Fal]

Surely with the ECM temperatures early next week could reach 33/34c in any sun. We've reached 29/30 under about 12c uppers so surely the likes of gfs are underestimating a bit.

[mushymanrob]

 

 

Anyway, enjoy these charts, the BEST is still to come with our classic heatwave, most of next week looks fantastic for storm enthusiasts and sun bathers alike, oh, and not forgetting the BBQ.. 

 

not so sure about sunbathers next week karl... continental air has notoriously milky skies with the expected heat and humidity... but hey! who cares! lets just enjoy it whilst we can

[OldMetMan]

What a great and balanced post by OldMetMan.  The kind of post that 95% of people reading this thread want to see.

Thank you very much Steve, that's much appreciated.

OMM

[Scorcher]

Surely with the ECM temperatures early next week could reach 33/34c in any sun. We've reached 29/30 under about 12c uppers so surely the likes of gfs are underestimating a bit.

 

Yes although the uppers aren't quite as warm on the GFS as the ECM. Nevertheless the surface temperature predictions by the GFS have been too low for many areas over the past few days- for instance for this area today it predicted 27C as the max and 29.7C was reached. 

Edited July 19, 2013 by Scorcher

[UV-RAY]

I thought I stumbled into the winter MOD thread earlier, glad to see normality has returned. Next week looks very entertaining, thunderstorms, heat, fresher air, lots of entertaining weather, but I've a feeling that the heat may well be harder to push to one side than the models currently suggest.

[Jason H]

Hope the pilot on your flight takes great care up there, could be a bit bumpy!! Very warm uppers over France as displayed on Tuesday leading to some monstrous storms and probably MCS's. 

As for the Balearics, super hot uppers of 20c+ up to 25c perhaps over there, so no shortage of stifling heat thats for sure! Storms a possibility too.

 

Early morning flight should negate the storms over France. But the heat/humidity out in the Balearics cannot be avoided. Luckily, the pool is 15 steps from the front of our villa. Pleasant evening here with a cooling breeze. Humidity begins to wind up from Sunday here.

[storm1080]

Now the iberian low is south of greenland, and in FI charts depict a mass of green 850 air eventually meeting it once it's over the UK...is there any concern/thoughts about that. There hasn't been to much discussion yet, maybe because it's FI, but for a while now GFS has been staunch in its forecast of this 1st iberian low...this 1st low brings a change/ fun , storms!, but it's what comes after that intrigues me..

[shaky]

Is the nmm still showing 25-27 degrees widely across england and wales tomorrow??cos the 06z nmm was showing quite a hot day across most of england compared to the gfs!!

[nick sussex]

ECM ensembles, mean and spreads solidly behind troughing over or near the UK by 144hrs but still generally warm.

The latest UKMO fax charts show the heat returning for Monday and Tuesday, a trough shown in the sw which could bring some thunderstorms.

Wednesdays fax chart looks like fireworks with a trough and cold front moving east but I'd not put too much faith in this given the models are still getting a handle on these shallow lows.

Tuesday at the moment could see the hottest temps, perhaps a 33 or 34 in favoured locations with increased humidity.

[Nick F]

It's looking increasingly like the end is nigh for the heatwave next week, GFS and ECM seem to have brought forward the breakdown to Wednesday across many areas, as an upper trough moves in from the Atlantic and displaces the upper ridge that has brought the hot weather over recent days.

 

GFS and ECM appear to be converging over the idea of an area of storms/thundery rain spreading N/NE Tuesday night and through Wednesday as the approaching upper trough interacts with a hot and humid plume advecting north. Somewhat cooler and fresher conditions following the rain and storms on Thursday - but still pleasantly warm with temps in the low 20s.

 

I can't really see high pressure rebuilding once the trough moves in, with further systems queuing up over the Atlantic as a zonal jet coming out of NE Canada and across the Atlantic tries to make inroads across western Europe, with the UK sitting under low pressure. The models have been hinting at such for a while now. 

Edited July 19, 2013 by Nick F

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 18z signalling thunderstorms through Monday night up the more western areas of the UK. West Midlands, Wales and southern parts of NW England look at risk on this run

 

 

Tuesday evening looks quite tasty...

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Nick F]

The end of Heatwave July 2013?

 

 

[Jezzer]

The end of Heatwave July 2013?

fax_120.png

What a depressing fax! Suppose all good things must come to an end at some point.

[Captain Shortwave]

The end of Heatwave July 2013?

 

fax_120.png

Lets hope we don't have to wait another 7 years 

Still from an IMBY point of view 2010 was a pretty good summer.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Steve C]

The end of Heatwave July 2013?

 

fax_120.png

For sure.

 

However this does look a slack pressure pattern and I've no idea how it will resolve later (strengthening jet or otherwise) - it'll be interesting, whatever.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Steve C

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well looks  like late  july early aug  the farmers wont be  happy looking  very  wet  at the  moment well it will lay the  dust!!

[CongletonHeat]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well looks  like late  july early aug  the farmers wont be  happy looking  very  wet  at the  moment well it will lay the  dust!!

Aye we will be back to flooding again if the gfs 0z comes off.

[ANYWEATHER]

All I can say is if the gfs is right this hot spell is going to go out with an almighty bang! Cape charts and lifted index show some excellent potential for Tuesday over a broad swathe of Southern Britain. Long time since ive seen this potential. Further ahead, gfs shows a generally much cooler and unsettled picture. Back to normal service it seems...