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Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Well looking at the latest met office outlook it doesn't look too bad to be honest after previous summers its a hell of an improvement this year with it remaining warm and at times hot into August

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jul 2013 to Saturday 3 Aug 2013:

 

Towards the end of next week the weather is expected to be much more mixed than of late with most regions seeing some bright or sunny spells, but also cloudier periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Some of these showers may be heavy with a risk of thunder at times. It is likely to be less hot than recently, but temperatures still mostly above average and still feeling very warm and humid in sunnier areas. The changeable conditions are set to continue thereafter with periods of fine and sunny weather interspersed cloudier, showery conditions and longer spells of rain. The south and east most likely to see the best of the fine weather. Temperatures generally lower than recently, although still warm at times.

 

Early next week see's temperature rocketing again in the south with the mid 30's entirely possible

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Yeah cc, monday looks good for central and Western England, showers looks widespread during the afternoon and evening, temperatures predicted to widely hit 32C in Central/Southern England, I would say somewhere favoured (usual South Eastern spots) could hit 33/34C.

Posted Image

Tuesday looks like a rinse a repeat, definite storm risk for more western areas, looks hot again

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Just a quick question after noticing your recent posts. Are you a trained meteorologist by any chance? I say this as I see you're from Reading aswell which is quite a famous location for meteorology training; plus your profile name makes me wonder :p It's always good to have a couple more pros knocking about!

Could be a 'frustrated forecaster' though we have too many of these here already!!!Interesting set of runs upcoming. Will we see the trough dig further to our west or will it push east and bring the atlantic though.
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Wow...can this be real?!

 

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

 

Posted Image

 

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

Edited by CreweCold
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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Wow...can this be real?!

 

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

 

Posted Image

 

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

Yep, pretty rare to see that set-up! That's why I think the met office have warnings on Tuesday!

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Wow...can this be real?!

 

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

 

Posted Image

 

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

 

Seems very possible this time with the hot air over the UK and low pressure trying to move in from the west it has all the signals for a big bang given how dry its been this month flash flooding can't be ruled out either

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Wednesday looks like a very wet day, torrential rain and embedded storms pushing north east

Still very warm in Eastern areas

Posted Image

 

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Edited by Captain shortwave
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Sorry for the offtopic but... what does that means?? what is j/kg ? and what does that chart measures?

 

sorry...

 

CAPE is essentially available potential energy and is measured in joules per kilogram (j/kg). The higher the CAPE figure, the greater the potential for severe weather if this energy is utilised. The greater the CAPE figure, the greater potential in speed of updrafts and thus building of cumulonimbus clouds.

 

Other factors come into play however such as 'capping' of the atmosphere etc which, along with the lifted index and CAPE value etc will determine if storm initiation is likely.

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jessandjon Explorer

jessandjon

Posted
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
Posted

Wow...can this be real?!

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

Posted Image

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

That would be just rain for Cornwall would it?
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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

12z GFS vs 6z GFS at 120

 

Posted Image

 

 

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12z GFS vs 6z GFS at 144

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Slight westward movement of the low.

Edited by Barry95
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Not satisfied by the events early in the week, GFS calls a reload on Friday into Saturday, becoming very warm and humid in England again. 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

 

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Thursday looks the most pleasant of the days promising dry weather with temperatures in the low/mid twenties 

Saturday

Posted Image

 

That low is not going anywhere, excellent run for those who like their weather warm to hot and with some explosive action Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

Wow...can this be real?!

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

Posted Image

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

 

Sorry for the offtopic but... what does that means?? what is j/kg ? and what does that chart measures?

sorry...

 

CAPE is essentially available potential energy and is measured in joules per kilogram (j/kg). The higher the CAPE figure, the greater the potential for severe weather if this energy is utilised. The greater the CAPE figure, the greater potential in speed of updrafts and thus building of cumulonimbus clouds.

Other factors come into play however such as 'capping' of the atmosphere etc which, along with the lifted index and CAPE value etc will determine if storm initiation is likely.

 

Just to add in addition to CC's summary, for the benefit of newcomers, the lower the numbers on these charts the greater the chance of thunderstorms.(I am sure you know this)

Edited by Jackone
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)

Well would you believe it the gfs 12z pulls the low even more westwards which would mean england and wales would remain very warm to hot well into next weekend even after the thunderstorms have passed earlier in the week!!temps probably into the 25-27 degree category which to me is still quite warm/hot!!

Edit:ukmo 12z looks pretty smiliar to gfs but a lot slacker i think!!have a feeling this heat might rebuild again at the end of the week especially if the ecm carries on from this mornings run!!

Edited by shaky
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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Some very high minima likely during the week as well with higher dew points and increased cloud around, Monday and Tuesday could potentially be very warm in terms of the CET values.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Nice to see GFS keeping the low further west giving the chance of heat to get back in later next week

 

May I bring everyone's attention to this post from this morning - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77295-model-output-discussion-00z-190713/?p=2741957

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Think the cool lovers are going to be very upset, the warmth stays according to the 12z GFS Posted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

Went out and purchased a brand new camera this afternoon! I think it could prove to be worth every penny spent Posted Image:D

 

P.S Just look at this 'slight' breakdown to cooler air being pushed ever further back as that low is becoming detached from the main jet. Look at it just hover around to the SW pumping all of that heat and humidity up from France and Spain and not coming over to introduce the Atlantic until FI now!! 

I am loving this July and long may it continue. Some real explosive conditions look ever imminent now. Let it commence!!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted (edited)

This Summer has certainly delivered for heat lovers so far and if recent outputs verify then storm fans will get a fix too.

Some fireworks around Tues/Weds by the looks after a hot and sultry start to the week.

 

post-2026-0-47195200-1374338162_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-28547900-1374338154_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-60886900-1374338169_thumb.pn

 

The trough becomes slow moving around the UK through the week so still showers around but with sunny periods.

There does seem a growing trend by the models to keep the warm air nearby the UK with any push from the Atlantic looking increasingly weak.ECM this morning showed this and it will be interesting to see if the 12z run backs this up.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the trough warming out insitu and the weather settling down again as pressure rises further south.

post-2026-0-03765200-1374339514_thumb.pn

 

Temps still look quite high even after the initial break in the dry spell with the mid-high 20's C modeled later in the week.

Edited by phil nw.
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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted

Can we refrain from digs at others and keep to the main topic please all.

 

Thanks.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Wow...can this be real?!

 

Tues afternoon 12z GFS

 

Posted Image

 

How often do we see >2000j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -7 or -8 being forecast over the UK?

i suspect late may 1982 would have looked like this. it was hot and steamy in the mornings but we had three days out of four when terrific storms broke out in the afternoon. id dig out the archive charts but am on crappy tablet.
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Ecm looks similar to the 12z gfs!!seems as though it wants to keep the heat going till at least friday across england and wales!!temperatures after tuesday probably in the mid twenties across england and wales judging by the ecm!!

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

ECM has the low still out to the west by Friday meaning the heat stays with us for longer mid 20's widely with the low to mid 30's possible in the London area early on next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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So another week of heat looks likely now after a minor blip this weekend in the east and given the low is stuck out west it will turn very humid another week of warm nights looks odds on as well so those desperate for some sleep best make the most of tonight and Sunday

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Guessing more blue skies then....very interesting how it can change so quickly from collapse of the high a few days ago to maintaining it...

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Just noticed some fairly large discrepancies (for the timeframe involved) between GFS, ECM and UKMO at 72 hrs. The ECM and UKMO look much less unstable to me with the ECM having a deeper low out west and the 16C uppers over France rather than S Midlands on the GFS. The UKMO and ECM would me much less unstable on the ground IMO....we shouldn't get carried away with the insane GFS CAPE prognosis maybe?

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