Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[shaky]

Tomorrow aside, next weekend lots very hot just across the channel

I wonder if the models might correct and direct that huge plume towards us *hopecasting*

UKMO looks interesting too

Looks like the models keep pushing the low pressure futher and further west!!at this rate england and wales will remain hot all week at least!!

[Milhouse]

Where have all the posters gone or have we a new thread and i cant find it .just done a tour of data and modells from different so urces and its certainly going to be a very interesting week and nail biting for some .more runs needed as usual to give us more of an idea on where any action will be ,and i dont think GFS as nailed it yet ,its going to be along humid couple of days but certainly worth the wait if the holy grail of storms turns up in your location .so im eagerly awaiting tonights main runs and later faxes .

 

If this week had occurred in the last 6 summers it would have been one of, if not the best week of the Summer. But to some its kind of after the lord mayors show with all this breakdown talk. The fact is that it will remain very warm and humid with scattered heavy thundery downpours. Still summery in my opinion. I notice on the UKMO and GFS 12z low pressue not quite so in charge next weekend as was shown on this mornings runs.

 

[Barry12]

A much better 12z GFS, the low has moved more to the west once more.

 

 

Staying warm all week for England and Wales.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Barry95

[mushymanrob]

If this week had occurred in the last 6 summers it would have been one of, if not the best week of the Summer. But to some its kind of after the lord mayors show with all this breakdown talk. The fact is that it will remain very warm and humid with scattered heavy thundery downpours. Still summery in my opinion. I notice on the UKMO and GFS 12z low pressue not quite so in charge next weekend as was shown on this mornings runs.

 

 

well the ukmo does hold out some hope that the atlantic MIGHT not kick in... its suggested ridge to our northwest, possibly linking the azores high to the scandinavian high, thus trapping the cut off low as a true cut off low might keep us hot... but of course the ukmo doesnt go out far enough to see the breakdown of that ridge... the ecm does and it agrees with previous gfs runs that the ridge will succumb to an atlantic/jet attack.

 

the gfs 12z also isnt so keen (so far) to bring in the atlantic as it once was...

 

edit..ive just seen the full run, although the atlantic attack has been delayed alittle, its still there albeit in fi.

Edited July 21, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Barry12]

.... july 06 - a month to remember!
.... sept 11 06 - a thunderstorm to remember
..... april 07 - the perfect spring month to remember!
...... summer 07 - one to forget

...... summer 08 - one to forget

...... summer 09 - one to forget

...... summer 10 - one to forget

...... summer 11 - one to forget

...... summer 12 - one to forget

...... July 2013 - a month to remember!

 

Fixed your sig

Edited July 21, 2013 by Barry95

[nick sussex]

The UKMO certainly pulling back from its recent progressive output, although it initially picked the right trend to bring in more unsettled thundery conditions its now correcting westwards. Given the upstream pattern and the set up over Europe realistically the only way to keep the more summery weather is to get troughing digging south to the west of the UK, its not the wall to wall sunshine set up but at least you can still get some hot temps although the humidity is likely to become a problem and you're always liable to see some thunderstorms.

This type of set up can bring some intense heat to Spain and France, still a chance some of that could effect the UK although at the moment a lot needs to go right with that troughing to deliver that.

[Swave Snow]

well the ukmo does hold out some hope that the atlantic MIGHT not kick in... its suggested ridge to our northwest, possibly linking the azores high to the scandinavian high, thus trapping the cut off low as a true cut off low might keep us hot... but of course the ukmo doesnt go out far enough to see the breakdown of that ridge... the ecm does and it agrees with previous gfs runs that the ridge will succumb to an atlantic/jet attack.

 

the gfs 12z also isnt so keen (so far) to bring in the atlantic as it once was...

 

edit..ive just seen the full run, although the atlantic attack has been delayed alittle, its still there albeit in fi.

 

 

It almost always shows something like Atlantic driven weather in FI, could be right of course, averages suggest it will be correct at some point of course

[ANYWEATHER]

If this week had occurred in the last 6 summers it would have been one of, if not the best week of the Summer. But to some its kind of after the lord mayors show with all this breakdown talk. The fact is that it will remain very warm and humid with scattered heavy thundery downpours. Still summery in my opinion. I notice on the UKMO and GFS 12z low pressue not quite so in charge next weekend as was shown on this mornings runs.

 

It wont be scattered heavy thunderstorms, more like widespread thunderstorms is what the models are showing from time to time. Hottest day of the week is likely tomorrow.

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM is a lot better too, but it's a so close moment, the 20C isotherm makes it to the north coast of France

Edited July 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Much better this evening with the low failing to get in

 

 

Yes we'll still see some thunderstorms in places (more localised then widespread BBC weather for the week ahead shows this as well)

 

But the heat should last all of this week so those who were saying a cool down was coming this week may want to rephrase that

 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

You heat lovers would drive people to drink! For hot weather to come back akin to what we have experienced, you'd need the models to turn on their heads! The cool down is still alive and well, with the Atlantic soon to sweep in!

[NUT]

A cool down? If I am reading it correctly but not the cool down as bad as expected but also not the heat as we have had this week at times?

[ANYWEATHER]

Much better this evening with the low failing to get in

 

 

Yes we'll still see some thunderstorms in places (more localised then widespread BBC weather for the week ahead shows this as well)

 

But the heat should last all of this week so those who were saying a cool down was coming this week may want to rephrase that

 

There will be a cool down no doubt about that, but we have a classic thunderstorm set-up with plumes of warmth and moisture throughout this week. Monday will be the hottest day. Rest of the the week some especially southeast Britain may see temps as high as 81f/27c locally.

[NorthernRab]

You heat lovers would drive people to drink! For hot weather to come back akin to what we have experienced, you'd need the models to turn on their heads! The cool down is still alive and well, with the Atlantic soon to sweep in!

 

High 20s still occurring on Saturday, it looks like the very warm weather is to hang around for quite some time longer. 

 

[phil nw.]

Let's keep things objective please folks.

Making statements one way or the other without reference to data or charts is not discussion.

 

Thanks.

[joggs]

Well the way im reading the models is becoming more unsettled with some big storms around(although not all) temps dropping to more comfortable levels but still pleasent.All this talk about atlantic breaking through at mo is tosh because the models are. simply not showing this.Anyway enjoy this weather week peeps

[bluearmy]

interesting set of 12z's in that each model has, so far, the same trend to dig the trough further sw. thats not something thats been too obvious on the ens spread so on the one hand, i'm cautious about it but on the other, all three ops so far have gone the same way. lets see if the ens reflect this or will it be something that requires the higher res of the ops to pick up.

[Scorcher]

You heat lovers would drive people to drink! For hot weather to come back akin to what we have experienced, you'd need the models to turn on their heads! The cool down is still alive and well, with the Atlantic soon to sweep in!

 

Post some charts then to back up what you say! Otherwise it just sounds like propaganda.

[Captain Shortwave]

BOM and NAVGEM also want to dig that trough further south west at the end of the week.

Given these models are also putting uppers as high as 20C just across the channel next weekend. It would not take much of a correction to get those uppers heading towards us.

If the models keep moving in the way they have this afternoon then those wanting cool Atlantic driven weather might start to sweat a bit. 

ECM awaited with serious intrigue 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mini tiger]

ECM 12z  at T+72 seems to have the low pressure further west and north a bit than the 00z, with a continental thundery low 

moving north close to Kent. Could see some continental imports in Kent and East Anglia on Weds afternoon 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

This is going to be a lot closer to heat than cool. Once the ECM is fully out we'll have a better idea. We may still have some surprises to endure

[syed2878]

well i hope the thundery action can be over quickly im not a fan of big t-storms as i once was.

[Mini tiger]

Another plume on Friday ??  

 

 

Those two lows could spiral around one another and fill in situ eventually keeping a warm or even hot SSW flow over us ?

[Summer Sun]

You heat lovers would drive people to drink! For hot weather to come back akin to what we have experienced, you'd need the models to turn on their heads! The cool down is still alive and well, with the Atlantic soon to sweep in!

 

Please post these "cool" charts then because what I see it a hot start to the week ending with temperatures moderating to average or above still and that is not cool by any means

 

The 12z ensembles are showing a decrease in the rainfall spikes this evening especially on the London ensemble so pressure may stay higher than first thought keeping the low further west

 

 

ECM shows the Atlantic low trying to move in but pressure is too high to our east which means it can't sweep across and is instead forced to sit there till at least Friday thus allowing temperatures to stay fairly high across a large part of the UK with the SE corner probably seeing the best of the warmth

 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

Ecm takes the low further west aswell!!amazing turn around in the past 24 hours!!looks like england and wales could stay warm/hot all week now with temps in the mid twenties!!